With scattered showers dampening Northern New South Wales (NNSW) over the past week there has been a slight dusting of around 10-15mm but nothing to really influence positive growth at this much needed time of year. As frosts and dry windy weather continue across the state, it also continues to drive the demand across export and domestic markets. If we look beyond our borders in regards to climate conditions, we know that northern Europe has been struggling moisture wise, though the Italian and Spanish crops in Southern Europe also are being impacted just as much by the dry weather with reports of severe reduction in their seasons output. This is set to affect more than just grain with other food commodities taking a huge hit as well. The US is forecasted to face increased temperatures with moisture set to avoid the most desperate areas. The weather for now remains quite reassuring of strong basis and as stated last week conditions will continue to adversely impact the market supply.
As we look to new crop for feed wheat, it has continued its positive run due to the weather driving demand at home and abroad. With another jump in the past seven days growers will see bids of $345 delivered Darling Downs for January and current crop feed wheat is very much in the same boat showing prices of $335. F1 feed Barley continues to linger around with prices at the $315 mark. Sorghum again has followed closely trailing just behind at $290 for delivery in to the Downs July 2017. Chickpeas are showing some spark though with recent weather conditions or lack of, it forces the market to be fairly steady on what is to be expected yield wise this coming season. Last week I labelled the Chickpea market placid, I will stick to my guns on this one as July does not seem like the month for anything too exciting. Brisbane Port delivered for July in to August is where bids remain firm at $965. For new crop peas, nothing to really alter from previous bids over the past 10-12 days as $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $840 Brisbane delivered for September in to the following months seem to be where the market is staying firm. Now talking Faba Beans, they brought some excitement as the market decided to make a progressive move price wise. As the demand has slightly diminished over the last couple of days due to scattered showers, we are still definitely on track for Faba’s to continue their promising rise. Prices are being seen at the $240-45 mark Ex-Farm depending location for July and August pick up, and the domestic market seems to be the most interested in Faba’s as of late.
In regards to Nearest Terminal Port (NTP) Prices, APW multi grade new crop for 2017/18 sits at bids of $315 Newcastle. Gladstone and Mackay ports follow closely behind Newcastle showing $300 and Brisbane leaping another $5 with a more than adequate price of $345. Queensland ports Gladstone and Mackay at the moment are bringing prices of $865 for new crop Chickpeas, NNSW main port of Newcastle follows the northern ports at the same September/October delivery period. Sorghum for delivered port remains quite steady though still on the slow climb with prices ranging between $280-90 for Brisbane and Newcastle.
Cotton has definitely come off the mind of the commodity market as the season came to an end and as grain continues to show its strengths. In the United States cotton crops are looking favourable with no signs of any unpredicted events to occur, though this can also change as December futures are quite volatile to any progress reports that may come out. Bids across the board for Cotton are stable at $520/bale for 2017 cotton and 2018 cotton is still relatively established at $490/bale. The Aussie dollar against the green back has continued its hike and looks like it is settling between the 0.78-80 cent margin, as of today the AUD stands slightly over the $0.79 level.
As stated previously in passing weeks, winter is beginning to take its toll on most aspects across the state of New South Wales. With temperatures barely reaching maximums of twenty degrees during the day throughout the north and lows recorded of 5 below zero, this is not doing any wonders for emerging crops. Any rain that was hoped for seems to have dispersed and the only thing hitting the ground now is solid frost. July is characteristically quite impulsive for weather conditions, and international crop marketplaces, and it seems that this year is not going to break tradition. On an international scale, rain across the United States’ Corn Belt and in Western Canada has continued to keep the crop progress quite firm at a good to excellent level. There are a few anxious individuals that seem to expect some abstract shifts in advance to this evening’s USDA WASDE report, the data gathered from the WASDE report should have its typical influences across the board but also not change too many minds just yet. I feel it is more likely that the report will emphasis that the weather conditions will just continue to adversely impact the market supply.
2018 feed Wheat has positively kept its strengths that it has been drawing from over the past month. Prices of $340 delivered Darling Downs for January are up from last week with prompt delivery bids showing $325 which is a very nice increase in just under 5 days. F1 feed Barley cracks $300 with Sorghum only trailing by $15 at $285 for August/September Downs Delivery 2017. In regards to Chickpeas, there is little to report, as we continue to check the forecasts for weather and keep eyes on the peas evolving from planting, the prices have stayed quite placid. $965 delivered Brisbane Port for July in to August is where bids remain firm. 2017/18 bids for Chickpeas still remain unmoved significantly showing at the mark of $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $870 delivered Brisbane for September and early October. Faba Beans were traded this week west of Narrabri for No. 3’s or better at $245 Ex-Farm for Jul/Aug pick-up for buyers call and as well west of Moree at $250 for the same delivery period. All parcels were for the domestic market. This shows that the current weather is having quite the impact and is a major driving force behind the market as of late.
APW multi grade for 2018 NTP Newcastle climbs again this week even though not by too much, it is still a very comforting sign at the mid $330’s. Gladstone and Mackay have also shown nice improvement with an increase of $10 showing at $300 and Brisbane jumping another $20 for NTP price of $340. The Queensland ports of Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay for new crop Chickpeas are at $850 with Newcastle Port coming in at the same price for New South Wales for September/October delivery. Sorghum, as for Brisbane and Newcastle NTP prices are strong with ranging prices from $280-90.
Cotton remains quiet as grains take centre stage of the market show it seems. Values are not too inconsistent and continue their same streak as previous weeks have shown, with bids at $525/bale for 2017 cotton. For the 2018 season cotton it is still quite settled at a price of $490/bale. The Aussie dollar is still staying quite high and has barely altered in the past fortnight and at the moment isn’t showing any signs of shifting from just above $0.76 today.
The second half of the year has now kicked off with July, and Mother Nature has sure let us know that winter is well and truly upon us with a very fresh frosty start on the weekend just been. Northern New South Wales (NNSW) was lucky enough to see some rain last week though it was almost gone before it arrived for some areas. Narrabri, Moree and towards the east saw a healthy 30-35mm around the towns last week, where the volume quickly deteriorated the further west you went with Rowena halving the amount of what the strip of the Newell Highway received. It’s nothing too tremendous but it is a start to what will be the season ahead. The days are bringing high teens but the nights are dropping to only a couple of degrees above freezing.
The weather abroad has driven the export demand as there is not much faith in Canada and the US seeing any positive wether events in the near future. We can say the same thing domestically as there has been some moisture spread around, though here hasn’t been enough to impact the market heavily. Canada had its national day on Monday which was then followed by the US holiday that is Independence Day or the 4th of July celebrations which has especially come round quickly this year. This meant that numerous futures exchanges were shut and closed for the days trading implying that there is a smaller amount to report than normal.
As the market has had an exciting start to the month across the board, the opportunity for growers to offer a price that is a little more expensive than bids is not out of the question. With rising prices, bids seem to be there as a bench mark, but an offer of that little more is definitely not going to be ignored or unnoticed. Where growers stand at the moment is being able to offer the increased price but also have the choice to play the wait and watch game, which is showing very beneficial for some players.
Feed Wheat for January 2018 has become extremely attractive by jumping $20 since last week as dry weather continues to drive demand at $320 delivered Darling Downs. For bids in this current time, you are looking again at a nice increased price of $310. F1 feed Barley at a positive of $290 with Sorghum bids delivered Downs are sturdier at $280/mt for August 2017. Chickpeas continue their strength holding at the continuous levels for the past fortnight at $920/mt delivered Narrabri, or $965 Darling Downs for July delivery. 2017/18 chickpea bids haven’t had much movement and continue their sheepish prices at $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $850 Darling Downs for September and early October delivery. Faba beans have had some more energy with Ex-Farm parcels being quite prevalent with the recent rise in price. Values are at $210-15 Ex-Farm around the Narrabri/Moree area and $220 Downs.
2018 multi grade APW NTP Newcastle just keeps outdoing itself week in and week out with an appealing spike of roughly $20 sitting at $310-15 and Gladstone and Mackay sitting at $292 and Brisbane $320. Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay NTP for Chickpeas are at $920 followed by Newcastle at $850 for September/October delivery. Sorghum prices for Brisbane and Newcastle NTP are strong at the mid $280’s.
Cotton continues to be not so much at the forefront of the picture, though the USDA did also minimise the cotton planting forecast which has only raised some eyebrows at most. Prices are not fluctuating much and have been a bit static as of late you could say. It is $525/bale for current crop, with new crop for the 2018 season at a price of $490. The Australian dollar’s decline is really the only one across the currencies as competitiveness continues to rise. The AUD is trading at just above $0.76 today.
As we are quickly approaching the downhill run of 2017 with only a couple more days left of June as well as the financial year, this has brought a predicted forecast of some welcome rain around Northern NSW (NNSW). Today the forecast is projecting a nice change of 20-40mm but I wouldn’t suggest holding your breath just yet. Here’s hoping it hits all the right places, which is pretty much the whole region at the moment. The weather as of late has had a lesser winter impact on the area with days heating up to the mid 20’s, though the weekend ahead is showing a bitter change which is sure to bring a nice welcome to what seems to be a chilly July ahead. In the US the rain like usual has typically evaded the thirstiest parts, this increases the impact of pressure on the pastures and winter and summer crops, even though the temperatures have been lower.
Modifications in USDA crop progress report were reassuring of the offshore markets helping the prices stay in the green despite the slight drop on the good to excellent rated crop. Feed Wheat for January 2018 remains at the high it climbed to last week at $300/mt delivered Darling Downs. Prompt bids at the moment stand at the high $285-90’s. F1 feed Barley has again kept slowly climbing over the past week bidding at $5 higher at the $275 mark. Sorghum, continues its firm rise hitching a ride upwards with the Wheat and Barley prices, the bids seen delivered Downs are stronger at $275-80/mt for August 2017. Chickpeas continue their sub $1000 levels from earlier in the month and have kept firm at $950/mt delivered Narrabri, or $965 Darling Downs for July delivery. Ramadan has now come to a conclusion and we sit, watch and wait to see how the market reacts in regards to Chickpea demand abroad. 2017/18 chickpea bids have fluctuated minimally and continue generally unscathed currently at $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $850 Darling Downs for September and early October delivery. Faba beans have had some activity in regards to Ex-Farm parcels, though there is still not enough of a firing market to warrant a large lift in price out of the blue just yet. Values such as $205 Ex-Farm around the Narrabri/Moree area and $210 Downs seem to be as exciting as it gets for time being. 2018 multi grade APW NTP Newcastle has showed its worth and lifted $5 this week and bidding firm at the $290 mark.
Cotton has remained at its low from the previous weeks fall. Prices are not much to jump up and down about but continue reasonably strong at $525/bale for current crop, with new crop for the 2018 season at a mark of $495-$500. The US Dollar was more solid alongside majority of the further agri‑exporter currencies early this week. The Euro has come to the forefront of the exchange rallying up to its peak level since August 2016 and the AUD/USD continues to hold its place at just over the $0.76 level.
Yesterday brought the Southern Hemisphere’s winter solstice, marking the day with the shortest period of daylight, the longest night of the year and cementing that the cold dry winter has well and truly arrived. The eastern side of Australia continues to be substantially dry with no rain forecasted, for Northern NSW the outlook is dismal for any expectations of moisture, which in fact could prove detrimental in the coming months. In regards to the current climate conditions in the US, weather events across the mid-west have been given a dousing of rain that will impact top soil moisture positively to a certain degree despite the heat that has been drying out the central Corn Belt significantly. European conditions have been somewhat hidden from recent news, though Western Europe’s production levels continue to battle the heat for the remainder of the week before hopefully receiving some forecasted respite. To sum up the weather across the globe, anything and everything is expected across the board from forecast to forecast.
Wheat has continued with its positives from last week remaining substantially high price wise. Feed Wheat for January 2018 is quite enticing with bids at $300/mt delivered Darling Downs. Prompt bids at the moment are low $290’s. F1 feed barley has jumped up by $10, now sitting with bids at the mid $270 mark. Sorghum, as like previous trends is stalking the Wheat and Barley prices, the bids seen delivered Downs are strong at $275-80/mt for June 2017. Chickpeas remain to be steadily lowering further from last week with prices showing below the $1,000 benchmark for the first time in a while at $960/mt Narrabri, or $985 Darling Downs for July delivery. As spoken previously, the fasting period for Islam in which is Ramadan, concludes this coming Saturday. This being said, the finish will hopefully lead to an increase in demand across the export market as the religion constitutes 25% of the world’s population. New crop chickpea bids remain untouched currently and are around $800 Narrabri and $820 Darling Downs for October/November delivery. Faba beans are still an upsetting subject with the market continuing to settle at values such as $200 Ex-Farm around the Narrabri and Moree area. 2018 multi grade APW NTP Newcastle is still bidding pleasantly around the $280-$285 point.
Cotton has again slowly decreased its prices this week. Prices have dropped to some extent as of late to around $520-25/bale for current crop, with new crop 2018 taking an upsetting plunge and hiding just under the $500 mark at $490 to $500/bale. The AUD/USD has had a calming week with the rate just sitting shy of the $0.76 spot as mid week hits. Agri‑exporter currencies are generally undulating off their latest peaks. The AUD has shadowed this trend.
As we are closing in on the middle of 2017, the north eastern side of Australia is in the midst of a cold dry winter currently with not much moisture forecasted for the near future. As of where we stand this month, it seems a very much a wait and see situation. This can be said also for the U.S. spring crop, while particular areas have been privileged to some rain as of late, at the current time it seems to be a bitter sweet scenario with the rain falling at just the wrong time where it will not really provide any real benefits to the crops. The USDA report this week has reported that the winter wheat is doing very well on average yet the spring wheat condition is very dismal dropping significantly below the five year range.
With a tour conducted around the north west of the state just west of Narrabri to Walgett yesterday there was much to take note of. Whilst an estimation of 75% of the area has been planted (the further west from Narrabri the less this precent is), it certainly needs some watering. There has been a swing to chickpeas in the more western areas due to lack of moisture. The Walgett shire is largely unplanted, with some better areas east of Walgett such as Cryon and Rowena. Therefore, to summarise, the cereal crops that are in have potential but will need rain this month. Chickpeas will hold on that little bit longer as they don’t draw much moisture until August/September. This region is of interest due to the protein issues in the Spring wheat regions of North America. If northern NSW (NNSW) dose not have a good season, this will remove a large amount of prime protein area & therefore the supply of protein wheat from Australia, magnifying the protein deficit around the world. Whilst southern NSW is in better condition than NNSW, a dry season in NNSW, will only add value to southern NSW grain values as the strong domestic demand from NNSW & SQLD forces the drawing arc south, resulting in less quantity of SNSW grains available for export. Whilst you never write off an Australian crop in June, many eyes will be monitoring this situation to August when many will make their minds on crop potential – what this space!
Wheat has had an exciting week with prices starting to climb in an attention grabbing way. January 2018 Feed Wheat has spiked by $20/tonne from the $270 to $290 delivered Darling Downs. Prompt bids are low $280’s. Prompt F1 feed barley is also up at the mid $260’s. Sorghum is again partnering closely with Wheat just trailing behind by a few dollars, the bids seen delivered Downs are around the low to mid $270’s for June 2017. Current crop chickpeas have dropped a further $10/t this week showing prices at $1,000/t Narrabri, or $1,020 Darling Downs for July delivery. With only a couple of weeks till the end of Islam’s fasting period of Ramadan, we are optimistic that demand can return. New crop chickpea bids are around $800 Narrabri & $820 Darling Downs for October/November. Faba beans have remained sluggish with values at $200 Ex-Farm around Narrabri & Moree. New crop multi grade APW NTP Newcastle is biding attractively around the $280 position with no sellers.
Cotton has dipped steadily over the past week, as the market fell over the long weekend it had been forecasted to do so and thus most were prepared. Weather isn’t projected to play much of a role in the futures market in the supply of cotton for 2017. Prices dropped slightly to around $530-40/bale for current crop, with new crop 2018 holding steady at $520 to $525/bale. The AUD/USD is holding its own this week remaining just over the $0.75 mark.
Global risk premiums remain in major ag grain markets as dry weather continues to raise concern for the spring season in Canada and northern U.S. spring wheat regions. Low temperatures are stunting the progression of the spring crops in Eastern Europe, and a shortage of rain in the Australian wheat belt is also starting to influence markets. As we saw the U.S. crop progress report released for this week, it emphasised that more than 80% of the new crop is in the ground and has synced with the five year average for this period. Whilst global grain stocks are still comfortable, reduced planted area for 2017 will mean that markets will react to any supply issues through the growing season. Protein wheat is where most of the action is occurring in the U.S wheat markets, & they have been pulling up CBOT wheat & corn. This bodes well for local Australian farmers holding protein wheat in the system & on farm. Cotton has remained steady with slight fluctuations, & prices are remaining around $550/bale for current crop, with new crop 2018 steady at $525 to $530/bale. As Cotton picking is almost at the end of its run, yields have been below recent season averages and this is attributed to the heat faced over the summer period. The AUD/USD is remaining stubborn around $0.75, however Australian wheat remains competitive in export markets, even in the face of prices firm locally.
The end of winter crop planting is also nearing with most local growers utilising what moisture they have to get as much winter crops in as they can. Northern NSW is very patchy in terms of sub-soil moisture. Moree, north & east is generally in good shape. Once you go 50km west of Moree, the situation vastly changes. Narrabri north to Moree and east is also generally in good condition for soil moisture, but again west of the Newell highway is extremely patchy. Most producers have been able to get some area planted, albeit production is uncertain without rain in the next few weeks. Much of the far western area of Walgett will see little area planted to adequate moisture, and we expect to see more chickpeas planted for this reason ie. chickpeas don’t require much moisture until flowing in September/October, so this will buy them time to receive rain. Central QLD is in good condition, with a solid chickpea plant. Southern QLD/Darling Downs, is also reasonable. Central west & southern NSW are generally in good condition, with South Australia & Western Australia looking for rain.
The Australian east coast domestic market has firmed for all feed grain & milling wheat over the last week. Feed wheat delivered Darling Downs is now bid around $270, with feed barley around the low $250’s. Sorghum is close to being at parity with wheat, & in some cases trading overs. Downs delivered bids are around $265 to $270. January 2018 feed wheat delivered Darling Downs has traded $282 plus carry – up $10 from last week. Milling wheat is also firm & something worth discussing with us as prices vary depending on quality & location. Old crop chickpeas are still lacklustre ($1,030/mt July Downs) due to Ramadan, with new crop bid around $820 Downs for October/November. Old crop chickpeas are still bidding at $1,015 delivered Narrabri and new crop lowering to the $790 mark. Faba beans have slowly become interesting with values at $200 Ex-Farm depending location. New crop multi grade APW NTP Newcastle is bid around $260.
Red was the colour to be seen through the board in offshore markets overnight with CBOT wheat, corn soybeans and ICE canola markets all concluding lesser. Positive weather conditions across the US Corn Belt positioned CBOT corn values under stress overnight. The USDA’s crop progress survey proposes planting is on track and, more importantly, is getting close to completion. With the harvest of the US winter wheat crop is closing in, this puts a lot of expectations on the US Wheat values as well. Cotton prices were little changed on Tuesday. December Prices were roughly in the 72’s and then changed direction as the day progressed. The USDA reported that cotton planting is largely on track.
Durum has continued in its strength with recent bids around $300 Ex-Farm on the plains less $50 for DR2. Wheat is persistent in bidding at $280 for APH2 delivered Narrabri. Demand remains firm for protein wheat delivered Narrabri – H2 $240, H12 $250 & AUH14 $270, with protein & screenings wheat – HPS14 $240. Barley is also neutral to firmer by $2/tonne around the mid $240’s delivered Darling Downs and $220 delivered Liverpool Plains.
Sorghum is holding neutral to firmer by $2/tonne at $257 delivered Darling Downs and Newcastle. We have been achieving prices for sorghum 2 at around $8/tonne over published bids. Chickpea prices on an export spectrum have quietened down since the commencement of Ramadan which takes place over the next four weeks. Though prices delivered Narrabri still remain positive with bids at $1,050 for current crop and 2017/18 crop bid around $810. Faba Beans are making its steady presence known but nothing to get over excited about with bids at $190-$200 Ex-Farm depending location.
Global grain markets remain in sideways trade over the last week as participants try to determine what impacts (if any) the recent weather in the U.S has had on yields & quality. The AUD/USD has also been stubborn over the week reaching through $0.75.
Cotton has come off its highs of last week in AUD terms from $590 back to $550. New crop 2018 remains steady at $530 to $540 per bale. Cotton picking is still under way around our region which on average is late around these parts.
Yields have largely been disappointing but not surprising on the back of such a hot and dry summer. Growers are busy either planting winter crops, or praying for more rain with the current local soil moisture being mostly patchy at best across the region. If we are to see a broad planting across our region, we’ll need to see plenty more rain, otherwise, it could be a lean year. Whilst there is still time, the later the crop is planted, the greater the yield impact. Local prices have remained steady over the last week, apart from cotton already mentioned. Feed barley is still bid around $236 delivered Darling Downs. Feed quality wheat is bidding around $256 delivered Downs, which is similar to sorghum.
Current crop chickpeas are bringing $1,080 delivered Narrabri back $30 from earlier this week. DR1 is bringing $325 delivered NTP Newcastle, with Ex-Farm interest also subject to location. Faba Beans are steady around $200 Ex-Farm, with thin demand. There is good demand for all current crop feed grains & milling wheat. New crop wheat values are firm on the back of production uncertainty and lack of grower selling. SFW delivered Downs is bidding around $250 to $260 subject to delivery period. New crop multi grade APW NTP Newcastle is bidding around the $255 mark.
The AUD has continued to trade tight against the bulk of its rivals with the Euro and Japanese Yen standing out over the rest. This week offshore markets again reacted to updated figures on the US crop conditions and planting progress. US wheat futures prices finished mostly weaker on Tuesday. Kansas prices fell sharply to finish not far off lows for the July 2017 contract. Canada’s prairies and some of China’s wheat regions remain on our weather watch list but both are only latent problems for now.
At the start of the week cotton had an eventful spike with 2017 crop shooting up to $580/bale and 2018 to $540/bale, though after the overnight change buyers decided to sit quiet and out of the market or focus on the 2019 crop with bids around $520/bale. Old crop Cotton futures prices fell last night, with new crop prices a shade lower. All the action was clearly in the old crop market where prices fell 4¢ on the day. With most of the cotton having being stripped the emphasis to get winter crops in the ground over the coming weeks is detrimental especially with the weather forecasted for the remainder of May.
Barley has remained strong since its spike last week coming in at $230-40 delivered Darling downs from some buyers. Sorghum 1 has also rallied with bids of $270 delivered Brisbane for June/July. Chickpeas have steadily increased due to Pakistan deciding to enter the market again, this has brought current crop prices of $1,145 delivered Brisbane June/July . New crop remains barely unchanged as of the amount of uncertain product, prices remain in the general area of $800-$900/mt delivered Newcastle.
The export market continues to stay firm on milling Wheat with strong demand for high protein with parcels trading at the $280-90 delivered Narrabri and this trend looking to continue in to the near future, Faba Beans still very quiet currently with prices at $190-$200 ex-farm depending location.
New crop markets will remain quite volatile with emphasis on contributing factors such as weather events and overseas markets.