July 2014 Month End News Articles
Globally, grain stocks are in a very comfortable position. Russia continue to increase their production estimates and is expected to rise to 65 million tonnes next week. That’s a 20% increase from a few weeks ago. That would equate to an Aussie crop estimate jumping from 25 million tonnes to 30 million!
In Northern NSW all we see are continued dry conditions, crops struggling and without rain in the next few weeks will further deteriorate. Growers are struggling to understand why prices have fallen when conditions aren’t any better than they were a few weeks ago. Prices are being capped by Southern NSW/Vic prices. Port Kembla multigrade values are currently around $267/mt track, whilst Newcastle is $285/mt and NNSW sites up to $328/mt track.
Sorghum is difficult to move off the Liverpool Plains as consumer demand is extremely quiet. Prices at current levels have meant consumers have filled their rations with wheat from southern locations and only the minimum amount of sorghum is currently being used in rations. We only have homes into Tamworth at the moment for September at $250/mt delivered.
We purchased some new crop barley this week at $246XF Gunnedah/Mullaley region. Some feedback from one of the traders that missed the parcel was that they thought it was a ‘good number’. He also mentioned that at that price he was a seller of barley as he could purchase out of the system at say, Condoblin in the Central West, pull it out and execute into a NNSW/SQ domestic market cheaper than the $246XF LPP.
Old crop 70/10 delivered Downs has come under pressure in the past week. Today we are looking at $270XF Bellata/Moree region for August pick-up. Wheat with protein above 13-14% will work into Narrabri into the container market at $320-330/mt.
We still have new crop canola hectare contracts available at $450/mt XF Bellata/Edgeroi, subject to oil & admix.
Old crop chickpeas are difficult to move at the moment as demand is lacking. We do have a home into Narrabri and we expect these values to be around $440-445/mt.
An eagle was sitting on a tree resting, doing nothing.
A small rabbit saw the eagle and asked him, ‘Can I also sit like you and do nothing?’
The eagle answered: ‘Sure, why not.’
So, the rabbit sat on the ground below the eagle and rested. All of a sudden, a fox appeared, jumped on the rabbit and ate it.
Moral of the story: To be sitting and doing nothing, you must be sitting very, very high up.
Futures overnight were mixed. Wheat fell on the back of an increase in production estimates out of Russia overnight, and excellent conditions for the US spring wheat crop.
Dec wheat finished down 2 cents and closed at 557.75 cents/bushel. Corn was boosted overnight on a drier weather forecast although the crop conditions are certainly not of any concern at this point in time. Soybeans lifted overnight due to a dry weather forecast as 38% of the crop is setting pods. Although the crop is still in good shape, stocks remain tight and any concern or hiccup in production will send this market higher. The strength in beans pushed canola futures higher overnight.
Locally, we are seeing a continued decline in feed values in the north here. Wheat and barley are again lower this week. 70/10 wheat XF Moree region is between $280-285, depending on location. Barley is becoming harder to find homes for and demand for these grains is not as strong as a few weeks ago.
Crops are really struggling with the lack of recent rainfall. We are almost desperate to see a good 25-50mm rain to keep crops alive. Without this, we will probably see a quick deterioration in these already struggling crops.
As a result of production concerns we aren’t seeing a great deal of 2014/2015 selling. There has been some new crop durum sales in the past few weeks but for the most part while prices are holding, growers are reluctant to sell.
Mungbean hectare contracts are available for anyone looking at spring & summer crop options.
We are currently offering through ECOM Commodities a Guaranteed Minimum Priced contract for 2015, we have sent out a flyer recently and happy to discuss this product in more detail.
Canada raised to 21% its forecast for its drop in grain and oilseeds production this year, including a downgrade in the barley crop to a 32-year low, citing raised expectations for crop losses to floods.
A RESEARCH project to identify what motivates cotton farmers and their employees to “stick at it” through thick and thin aims to find new ways to build the capacity of those involved in the industry to manage through challenging times.
SOURCE: The LAND