AgVantage Commodities Market Report 26/08/2014

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Overnight wheat, corn and soybeans all ended the session lower. The USDA’s weekly crop progress report noted that the US Spring wheat crop’s good to excellent rating was below the 5 year average and at the bottom end of the 5 year range. Corn good to excellent rating was 73%, up 1% from last week. Soybeans were down 1% to 70%. Frosts in Canada are not expected to damage the canola crops at this stage but they would like to see another 2 weeks of no frost to escape production losses before winter sets in.

On the wheat front, internationally, wheat is not wheat and we may see some support for Aussie basis and Milling grades as we approach harvest. With quality downgrades internationally, we may see strength in milling grade premiums. This is yet to filter into our new crop pricing. Locally, wheat is wheat and with a downsized crop in northern NSW and southern Qld, we will see a large portion of grain move into domestic markets.

We have been receiving a lot of calls from growers wanting to know what to do with their grain this year. We are happy to do a comparison for you to see what the best plan of attack is with regard to storage/marketing grain and where the best return will be. Ideally, each of you would be a ‘mini GrainCorp’ on-farm and have the ability to store all your grain and test each load. The reality is, a lot don’t. We can, however give you a better understanding of where this grain can go if you need to send a surplus off-farm. If you are west of Narrabri, and it’s roughly the same distance from Narrabri or Moree, you could be better off to swing grain to Moree. If you have high protein wheat, it will probably be best sold into a packer as there are generally premiums for this.

As we get closer to harvest, we will explore these options in more details and in the meantime, if you have any queries, please don’t hesitate to call us.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 21/08/2014

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Overnight grains took a dive with no real news to maintain gains over the past session. Fundamentally, the market continues to remain bearish so with nothing to ignite the flame, it fizzed & grains closed lower.

This move hasn’t really transferred into Aussie dollars today. Old crop wheat values onto the Downs remains around $323-325/mt delivered for some immediate shorts to fill. We believe once these are covered, prices will drop back to around $315/mt delivered, as this is where we see the ‘rest’ of the grower bids.

Today, we have seen new crop chickpea numbers take an exciting leap up. Delivered Narrabri today would be $473/mt for Nov/Dec delivery, Goondi at $458/mt and Downs at $478/mt. These values are for fixed tonnage contracts.

Faba beans today are $410/mt for new crop into Narrabri and $435-440/mt delivered Dalby. We still have a number of alternatives for new crop mungbean contracts. We can price on a delivered Goondi or Downs basis. Prices remain steady this week.

This week Steve & I have been at AgQuip. It was nice to spend a day or two out of the office and catch-up with some familiar faces and to meet some new growers. It’s no surprise that a lot of growers we met were from down south, where winter crop conditions have been more favourable than in the north. We have been hearing of frost damage to crops between Narrabri and Moree. The hardest hit have been faba beans and canola, and the earlier planted wheat. The extent of frost damage is always difficult to estimate until we get headers in the paddock but there is talk of growers running ploughing faba crops back in to put some nitrogen back in the soil.

A general 30-40mm rain this weekend has boosted grower confidence across the region. We will certainly want to see another fall in September to get crops home, but it’s a great start.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 19/08/2014

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New crop durum track DR1 at today is around $410-412/mt with multigrade contracts available.

Sorghum homes in the Newcastle zone remain hard to come by for prompt movement. At the moment, we are seeing $240/mt delivered Tamworth for October. We can look at delivered Newcastle also but it would be on a case-by-case basis due to low consumer demand.

We have had strong enquiry this week again for mungbean hectare contracts. Prices remain similar at $1100/mt for Processing quality, and we have a number of options available.

We still have interest in old crop chickpeas delivered Narrabri and ex-farm to work into Brisbane. These prices remain around $445/mt delivered Narrabri and $420-430/mt ex-farm, depending on location. New crop chickpea values delivered Downs are $470/mt for a hectare contract. Delivered Narrabri, new crop peas today are $440/mt.

New crop faba beans are $420/mt delivered Toowoomba, with a $15/mt discount for No2’s. We also have options into local packers. Due to the size of the crop and the percentage already sold, we haven’t yet seen a lot of domestic demand ex-farm for new crop faba beans. Faba bean crops across NNSW are mixed. Some crops are still in good shape and for others the rain arrived too late as they had finished flowering prior to the rain and had ran out of moisture.

New crop wheat values have jumped slightly this week and Newcastle track is back up to $290/mt and Brisbane $318/mt today for APW on a multigrade contract. New crop 70/10 is $328/mt delivered Downs.

This week Steve & Erin will be attending AgQuip and sharing a stand with the team from Next Instruments at site F23, across from NSW Farmers. AgVantage is a selling agent for their NIR grain testing machines in northern NSW. Call in and see us. Steve is there today and Thursday and Erin will be attending on Wednesday. We have on display a Kwik Kleen grain cleaner, which we are also sellers of.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 14/08/2014

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The USDA Report was released on Tuesday. World wheat production was increased by 10.9 million tonnes, to 716.1 million tonnes. Of this, there was a 6 million tonne increase from Russia, 2 million from China and 1 million for Ukraine. Due to quality issues in Russia, the EU & Ukraine this season there is an increase in feed wheat use. Global ending stocks up by 3.4 million tonnes, which is a 3 year high.

US corn production was increased by 2.1 bushels per acre to 167.4 bushels/acre. The market was expecting 170 bushels and aren’t ruling out further increases in the next estimate. Global coarse grain production is increased by 4.9 million tonnes, consumption is also raised, due mostly to an increase in ethanol use in the US. Soybean production was lifted and as a result, US oilseed production is projected at 113.7 million tonnes, up 0.6 million. Yield estimates for soybeans is 45.4 bushels/acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. US soybean production was up, but global oilseed production for 2014/2015 is lowered.

US cotton production is raised to 17.5 million bales. Global production is also raised for the US, India, Mexico but lowered in Brazil & Australia. World ending stocks are now projected at a whopping 105.1 million bales!

For anyone interested in summer cropping alternatives, please have a look at the links in our email. There is a comprehensive Mungbean Cropping Guide, and some pricing information for mungbeans, soybeans, sorghum & corn.

Northern grain markets have seen a decline from last week not only from a fall in global grain values on the back of the bearish USDA report, but also due to rain forecast this weekend for southern QLD & northern NSW. Consumers & traders alike have gone to ground as they sit on their hands until they see what falls in the rain gauge. We have seen an average decline in prices across the grains complex of $10-$15/mt. Sorghum delivery periods are moving out further with some buyers saying they are now looking to buy for Jan/Feb next year. Many of the beef feedlots are happy with the results they are getting from wheat & barley, so sorghum is not on their radar. Barley is hard to come by, so most consumers are sticking with a ration of mainly wheat.

 

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 12/08/2014

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Futures seem to be trading in anticipation of tonight’s USDA report. It is expected that the USDA will increase corn yields to 170bu/acre and an increase in Russia’s wheat production to around 60 million tonnes, up from the current estimate of 53 million.

Old crop chickpeas have been continuing to trade at $445/mt delivered Narrabri for prompt delivery. We have been picking-up bits and pieces at these levels.

This week we have seen many calls from growers wanting to discuss summer crop alternatives. We will look at this more in Thursday’s report.

A reminder that we have ex-farm canola hectare contracts available again for this season. We cannot guarantee pick-up off the header but it would be a harvest pick-up. AOF oil increments apply and admix discounts above 3%.

Sorghum values have dropped this week by around $5/mt. New crop is around $255-258/mt delivered Downs. We have homes for Sept into Tamworth at $245 and still, Newcastle homes are hard to come by.

New crop wheat values have also dropped. Last week we saw as high as $308/mt generic Newcastle track and this week they are back to mid-$280’s. For anyone in the north looking to market grain, we would suggest looking at an ex-farm 70/10 price to at least compare to system contracts.

We also have interest in new crop mungbean hectare contracts for either a Spring or  a Summer plant.

New crop faba beans are bid between $400-415/mt delivered packer. There is no real domestic market for new crop beans at the moment. It’s also difficult to put an exact number on where prices are as there is none trading. Old crop has been bid at $453/mt delivered Toowoomba for Sept movement.

We have seen a promising forecast for rain this week. It’s hard to get too excited at the moment, but wouldn’t it be lovely? Certainly very timely for struggling winter crops and growers looking to bank some moisture for summer cropping programs.

 

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 07/08/2014

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Futures closed higher again last night, for the 6th consecutive session. Mostly due to specs and funds closing out of short positions. There is still uncertainty over EU quality due to downgrading because of rain during harvest. This will put pressure onto Russia as they can fulfil this shortfall. The problem is the uncertainty over exports from Russia. The market believes that ultimately the demand for milling wheat will swing back to US wheat. This may also spill over into Aussie milling wheat demand.  Although we saw a lift overnight, fundamentally, corn remains largely bearish and continues to weigh on the market.

The weather outlook for the coming weeks is unsettling as there doesn’t appear to be rain forecast. A lot of crops in the north are dependent on rain in the next two weeks before giving up. We will probably see a lot of stock on feed if there’s no rain in this two week window.

Locally, we have seen a small jump in wheat and barley for both old and new crop pricing. New crop Newcastle track MG has jumped from $300 earlier in the week to $305 today. Sorghum remains mostly unchanged.

Old crop 70/10 traded this week at $300XF in the north for September movement. We also have homes for Oct old crop wheat.

Chickpeas on-farm traded at $430XF for August pick-up at Garah earlier this week for old crop which is a strong price given current delivered Downs numbers of $445-450 for September.

New crop durum remains supported and prices are currently pushing $370/mt site at Bellata & Edgeroi for new crop DR1. Grower selling is pretty much non-existent.

Upcoming Events

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  • 6 August – Weed Movement: Machinery Inspection and Cleaning, ACRI, Narrabri, 8.30-4.30pm, Cassie Gardiner, 02 6763 1276
  • 12 August – Better Sunflowers one-day certified agronomic workshop, Town & Country Club, Moree, 8am-5pm, , Liz Alexander 0429 471 511
  • 15-17 August – Australian Women in Agriculture Annual Conference, Melbourne, Val Lang AM, 03 5596 2014 http://www.awia.org.au/
  • 18 August – ChemCert Chemical Accreditation and Reaccreditation Course, Venue TBC, Moree, 8.30-5pm, James 02 9380 7271
  • 19 August – ChemCert Chemical Accreditation and Reaccreditation Course, Venue TBC, Warialda, 8.30-5pm, James 02 9380 7271
  • 19 August – ChemCert Chemical Accreditation and Reaccreditation Course, Venue TBC, Warren, 8.30-5pm, James 02 9380 7271
  • 19 – 21 August – Ag-Quip, Gunnedah, 9-5pm, http://www.farmonline.com.au/events/agquip/
  • 25 August – ChemCert Chemical Accreditation and Reaccreditation Course, Venue TBC, Gunnedah, 8.30-5pm, James 02 9380 7271
  • 26-27 August – Off Road Four Wheel Drive (4×4) Training, ACRI, Narrabri, 8.30-4.30pm, Cassie Gardiner, 02 6763 1276
  • 27-28 August – Better Soils Management, Dubbo, 9-5pm, Cheryl Else, 07 3821 3577 ext 3
  • 2September – Tulloona Conservation Farming Field Day, ‘Beefwood’, Tulloona, 8am.  Darryl Bartelen epsomk@icqmail.com
  • 11 September – UNCGA Charity Fun Day & AGM, Gunnedah Services & Bowls Club, Weetaliba@bigpond.com

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 05/08/2014

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It was nice to see some upside movement in grains overnight that spilled into domestic values. Wheat futures closed up 9-11 cents overnight with concern over the quality of EU crops as rain during harvest is downgrading quality. Tensions in Russia/Ukraine remains bullish to the market and all eyes will be on the monthly USDA report released next week. It is expected that corn production estimates will increase and this will most likely put pressure  on the corn market and drag wheat with it.  US corn crop conditions are at the top of the 10 year range.

Domestically, we have seen a small spike in values since last week. New crop Newcastle multigrade contracts have touched $300/mt track with higher values in northern sites.

New crop sorghum track values have increased around $10/mt in both Brisbane and Newcastle zones and delivered values for wheat, barley and sorghum are all higher today.

New crop chickpea values are currently around $475/mt delivered Dalby on a hectare contract. Into Narrabri for new crop we expect today these would be around $460-470/mt. Old crop values are still steady between $440-445/mt delivered Narrabri. We do have prompt homes available for anyone interested. We can also look at chickpeas delivered Brisbane.

We have a small pocket of demand for old crop faba beans. Delivered Toowoomba we would be $453/mt and XF into the domestic market $405XF, depending on location. These aren’t for large tonnages as demand is still quite thin.

Many growers are looking at spring & summer crop options at the moment. Mungbean values remain strong as Aussie beans will be the next available global export. With prices at current levels it is expected Burma and China will experience a large crop this season and this will more than likely pressure summer crop prices which are $100 below spring plant prices..

The 2014 Cotton Conference has kicked off today at the Gold Coast. For any growers attending, ECOM are holding drinks tomorrow evening at the Moo Moo Bar from 4-7pm. Feel free to pop along if you have a chance to.