With rains falling over the past 24 hours, particularly to the south and west of Narrabri, it will be interesting to see what effect this will have on the market going forward. We have heard of 30mm around Mungindi, 20mm at Walgett, up to 55mm at Coonamble, 10-15mm Narrabri, and 10-20mm North Star. Perfect timing for some crops, others probably too late.
Will it be enough for growers to plant sorghum & mungbeans? We have seen mungbean selling in the past few weeks for growers looking to plant mungs for this season. A number of growers have indicated that a fall of rain will increase their intended area. Today our No1 Processing price has increased by $50/mt to $1200/mt delivered Downs. These are hectare contract prices. We are also able to supply AMA certified Crystal & Jade seed.
New crop domestic markets have come under pressure in the past few weeks. 2-3 weeks ago I was comparing delivered Downs numbers and local packer values for protein wheat. Any grade including and below H2 would work north. This seems to have shifted with the northern markets now bid in the $280’s for 70/10 harvest delivery. This makes deliveries into the local packer more attractive for all grades, including APW-type grain. We urge you to call us to do the comparisons prior to making any marketing/delivery decisions where possible. We have buyers into all destinations and have a large variety of contracts available with a large number of buyers this harvest shifting to 12 or 14 day end of week payment terms!
For anyone still holding old crop chickpeas, we have missed the boat, so to speak. Prices have pretty much dropped off the radar for old crop as we are just around the corner from new crop harvest.
Futures were mixed last night with wheat slightly higher, with an outlook for harvest to really get going in the Northern Plains over the weekend. Corn was off slightly, and beans closed up a few cents. The big mover overnight was our Dollar. It dropped over 1 cent last night and today is trading around 0.8967USD.
With faba bean harvest around the corner, we have a number of marketing options available. We have destinations into the Downs, Allora, Goondi, Moree, Narrabri and Dubbo.
Current feedback is that the UK & French beans are being offered into Egypt at values well below Aussie prices. This is putting pressure on the Doza variety in particular, but also Aussie faba beans in general. Due to the size of the crop this year, and export values, the domestic market won’t be a large aggressor so in the past we have been able to contract No2 or better on-farm, this may not be the case this season. Export values are stronger than what the domestic market can pay for them.
Earlier this week we contracted new crop at $428/mt delivered Narrabri for No1 quality and a $20/mt discount to No2’s. Today, that price has softened slightly and is at $423/mt.
Old crop wheat values continue to slide as September shorts are filled and demand moves to Oct/Nov/Dec slots. With these shorts filling, the old crop premiums are disappearing and quickly moving toward new crop values, which have also declined in the past week. Today new crop is being bid sub $300/mt delivered Downs and $265-270/mt delivered Tamworth/LPP.
Durum is the star performer at the moment, with well over $400/mt site for LPP sites and $400/mt or better at Bellata/Edgeroi.
In the past week the trade have been heavy sellers of new crop wheat and barley. New crop wheat selling has occurred between $300-305/mt. As a result of strong trade selling late last week, new crop delivered Downs values have fallen this week, and are generally sub-$300/mt delivered.
Old crop shorts are also filling quick and last week we had bids of $325/mt delivered Downs for September movement, this week it’s back around $350/mt.
We are seeing strong demand for old crop sorghum delivered Downs between $295-300. We haven’t quite hit the $300 mark yet but willing to take offers at this level. Old crop sorghum in the north remains hard to come by.
Mungbean prices remain well supported with strong grower selling last week. A reminder to anyone looking to contract munbeans with us, we are able to supply Certified Crystal or Jade seed. We are still looking for that planting rain to happen which will spark another wave of sellers of mungbeans.
New crop fabas delivered Narrabri today are around $428/mt for No1’s. It’s interesting to note that one exporter said to us this morning that French and UK fabas are being traded into Egypt at $100/mt below Aussie values. He also placed his bid at $395/mt delivered Narrabri for No1’s and a $15-20/mt discount for No2 quality. We should see more prices for fabas in the coming weeks as growers north and west of Moree will start harvest towards the end of Sept, early Oct.
Old crop chickpeas are moving slowly and although demand is not huge we are still moving a few parcels each week. It seems most are moving into Narrabri rather than north as cheap freight from carriers is making it the best option.
A few questions/points to note about current markets as we edge closer to harvest. Aussie basis is at historic highs for this time of the year. How much higher can it go, or will it fall away? This will be dependent on a number of factors. If futures fall further, if sellers emerge from southern NSW and Vic. Grain was bought around from SA in 13/14 season and will do so again if prices climb much higher in NNSW/SQ. These growers are largely export sellers and this is a very real threat to prices in the north come harvest. If we receive two inches of rain in NNSW there will be a large area of sorghum planted. Whilst this won’t create an influx of grain immediately, we could be staring at a massive sorghum crop in early next year.
Will I receive a premium for protein this year and how much? World protein premiums are currently about $90-100/mt above APW. You may be thinking why aren’t we getting this over APW here. The reason is because our basis is already so strong (Ntl zone $80-85/mt and BNE up to $100/mt) so a $15-20/mt premium for APH on a multigrade contract is above where APH would actually be competitive in world consumptive markets. Domestic consumption in NSW of APH is around 80-100k/mt, and H2 around 1 million mt. Canada have a 10 million tonne carryover of high protein wheat. They can execute into world markets at $30/mt below where our prices are currently.
For anyone still holding old crop grain, we encourage you to look at the inverse in the market for new crop. Wheat at $20/mt, barley around $16/mt and even old crop sorghum is demanding a $25/mt premium over new crop. The only exception is chickpeas, but risky to sell old crop against new crop as buyers will be looking closely at quality, in particular, colour.
A turkey was chatting with a bull.
‘I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree’ sighed the turkey, ‘but I haven’t got the energy.’
‘Well, why don’t you nibble on some of my droppings?’ replied the bull. They’re packed with nutrients.’
The turkey pecked at a lump of dung, and found it actually gave him enough strength to reach the lowest branch of the tree.
The next day, after eating some more dung, he reached the second branch.
Finally after a fourth night, the turkey was proudly perched at the top of the tree.
He was promptly spotted by a farmer, who shot him out of the tree.
Moral of the story: Bull Shit might get you to the top, but it won’t keep you there..
Grains got belted overnight with wheat down 20 cents, corn closing down 11-12 cents and soybeans down 16.5 cents also. Wheat is now 25 cents below Friday’s close. The main driver of this move has been talk that Putin & Poroshenko have come to some sort of arrangement regarding a ceasefire. How this is bearish we don’t know as exports really haven’t been affected so far.
Wheat and corn both closed below their levels of support. Will this spark another drop, who knows?
Cotton was the only positive mover last night, with the December contract leading the pack and finishing up 65 points. There is an inverse from December through to March due to a lack of supply for December sales, therefore there are premiums for prompt shipment. Today ECOM are bidding $415/bale for 2015.
Sorghum values for new crop delivered Downs have dropped $7/mt this week with old crop remaining firm close to $290/mt delivered Downs.
Due to a heavy futures decline and AUD strengthening overnight, most new crop prices are lower today, although basis remains strong. Durum is the only exception, and remains strong at $415-420/mt track DR1.
We have added new crop corn prices on the right for anyone looking to grow corn for the coming summer season.
Chickpea values have been the big mover this week. New crop values have dropped $20/mt delivered packer. Old crop has also dropped $10/mt with the last bids at $435/mt delivered Narrabri. Sellers have been prominent of old crop chickpeas at $445/mt the last few weeks and we expect this to drop off now with a $10/mt price drop. Feedback is that the offshore market is very quiet and illiquid at the moment.
5th September: Cereal Trial Walk, “Manneroo” Terry Hie Hie Rd 7.30-9.30am followed by Canola R&D Walk, “Bellaree” Burrington Rd, Terry Hie Hie 10.00-11.30am
8th September: Pest control update from LLS, Boomi
9 September: NSW Partners in Grain Marketing Forum, Tottenham Bowling Club, 8am – 12noon Katrina McDougall 0408 366 202
9 September: NSW Partners in Grain Marketing Forum, Narromine United Services Club, 2 – 6pm, Katrina McDougall 0408 366 202
10th September: Pest Suppressive Landscapes, Pallamallawa
10th September: USyd (IA Watson) Grains Industry Field Day
10th September: Agronomist Lunch with Nancy Schellhorn, Moree LLS Office
10 September: University of Sydney Grains Industry Field Day, IA Watson Research Centre, Narrabri, 9am – 5pm, Richard Heath 0477 721 838
11 September: Controlled Traffic Farming and Precision Agriculture Workshop, Croppa Creek Bowling Club, 9.30am – 3pm, Milton Curkpatrick 0427 247 045
11 September: – Upper Namoi Cotton Growers Charity Bowls Day, 10am, Gunnedah Services & Bowling Club, Julie Glover email@example.com
12 September: SPAA Precision Agriculture Expo, Quirindi Royal Theatre, from 9am , Alex Milner Smyth, 0421 633 370 http://www.spaa.com.au/event_details.php?event=33
13 September: Central North Rugby Union Grand Final, Dangar Park, Narrabri
16 September: Sustainable management of insect pests in grain crops, Narromine Aeroclub, 8.30am – 3pm, Erica McKay 02 9482 4930
17 September: Sustainable management of insect pests in grain crops, Gunnedah Services & Bowling Club, 8.30am – 3pm, Erica McKay 02 9482 4930
18 September: Sustainable management of insect pests in grain crops, Warialda Golf & Bowling Club, 8.30am – 3pm, Erica McKay 02 9482 4930
22nd September: NVT Cereals; Cereal Disease Management, Doolin’s, North Star
28th September: Drought Support – Youth Spur Up – Rodeo, Moree
Markets were closed for Labour Day Holiday in the US & Canada last night. Prices above are Friday’s close.
For anyone interested in selling new crop sorghum, today these prices are $276/mt delivered Downs. Delivered Newcastle for 2014/2015 crop is $277/mt.
Mungbean values for summer crop remain strong and we have freight rebates available for growers to take their beans to Dalby. These contracts are hectare contracts, with a zero minimum tonnage requirement.
New crop sellers are starting to emerge and we have seen wheat, barley and chickpea enquiry pick-up, as well as sorghum. New crop wheat today is around a $314/mt delivered Downs. This would equate to a $275-280XF Moree. For anyone looking at contracting a multigrade contract into the system, we will crunch some numbers with you as this season it makes sense to store grain on-farm and utilise our strong basis in the domestic markets.
F1 Barley XF Moree region for new crop is around $245-250XF. A track barley contract today is priced at $260/mt Newcastle, less $48/mt Moree freight, less $15/mt freight from farm to site = $197/mt XF equivalent. It’s easy to see why growers are keeping as much grain on farm and selling into domestic homes.
We have continued buying demand for old crop chickpeas delivered Narrabri, and ex-farm to move into Brisbane. We are also interested in chickpeas in the system. For anyone with old crop still to price, please contact us.
Next Tuesday NSW Partners in Grain are holding meetings in Tottenham & Narromine. AgVantage will be present at these meetings. RSVP’s are still open and if you would like to attend, please give us a call and we will give you the details to RSVP. We are looking forward to meeting some of you at these workshops.