AgVantage Commodities Market Report 26/02/2015

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Prices for wheat, barley & canola have remained stable over the last week on the back of consistent domestic demand, although global prices have continued to soften on the back of comfortable global supply & ending stocks, along with U.S wheat being largely uncompetitive in global markets. Chickpeas have been up & down, but on average steady, whilst sorghum has picked up some ground on the back of short covering, & slow grower selling. We still believe growers should be pricing some of their sorghum at current values. The AUD/USD has also firm this week, & at the time of writing is at $0.7852.

Locally, sorghum is bid around $284 Narrabri, up from $275 last week. Sorghum 2 discounts are available for track & ex-farm contracts, but not in to the packers as these markets are predominately higher quality markets for Chinese alcohol consumption. Sorghum delivered Downs is around $280 and SFW1 – 70/10 wheat at $310. Sorghum delivered Newcastle is $305/mt and Brisbane is $302. Chickpeas are currently $635 delivered Narrabri, up $10 from last week, with new crop chickpeas bid around $605 – steady from last week. Downs current crop chickpeas are bid $645 delivered for April. Hectare contracts are available for new crop. There are thin markets for old crop chickpeas (13/14 season) at approximately a $10 discount – subject to sample. Barley prices are up a few dollars from last week at $300 delivered Downs. Demand for high protein remains, along with demand for & off spec wheat, either ex-farm, or delivered packer. Multi grade contracts for this type of wheat can be negotiated, which can assist with removing the cliff face spreads. For growers still holding faba beans, values are $500+ delivered Narrabri. Mungbeans have softened $50 from their highs, but still remain firm at around $1,150 for number one processing quality. Hectare contacts are still available for mungbeans. SFW1 delivered Newcastle today is $299/mt. Please call to price your parcel today!!

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 24/02/2015

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Chickpeas remain supported this week still around $645/mt delivered Downs for old crop and $615+ for new crop. We do still have hectare contracts available and they are roughly a $30/mt discount to fixed tonnage, but are only being priced on a case-by-case basis.

Sorghum remains the focus for a lot of traders. Bids delivered Brisbane are softer this week, and today is bid at $300/mt delivered. Delivered Narrabri is $277/mt and delivered Newcastle $303/mt and track at $295/mt. Prompt deliveries into Newcastle port are hard to find as port space needs to be allocated to each trader and it is currently limited each week. This makes prompt pick-up difficult as well. Domestic demand is still low. Chicken farms will use sorghum but they too are laying low at the moment. We do have bids delivered Sydney which has been around a $10/mt premium to Newcastle markets. With respect to quality, these guys are strict on aflatoxins and mould but lenient on stained grain.

We have barley demand into Texas at $288-290/mt delivered for March/April and Ranger’s Valley homes are pretty much exhausted out until the second half of April as Central West growers have sold into the earlier slots. Barley remains difficult to move in volume.

We have continued mungbean demand and homes into Willow Tree, Narrabri, Goondiwindi, Downs with hectare contracts still available. We can price on an ex-farm basis as well so please contact us if you require any pricing.

Keepit Dam Dips to Desperate Levels

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022015

The dam has dropped to 4.6 per cent of capacity following little rainfall in the catchment and minimal flows into the dam.

Keepit Dam is under the operation of a drought management strategy which means Water NSW will cease releasing water to fill orders from Monday, and will only release water to satisfy stock and domestic, town water supplies and high security licence holders.

In an attempt to stop levels from dropping even further, Water NSW has been shortening the distance of where it delivers water to along the Namoi River over the summer months in an effort to maximise the amount of water in storage to meet irrigation demand

“Under minimum inflows, we are in a better position than we originally anticipated,” a Water NSW spokesperson said.

All the water inside the dam storage belongs to licence holders who have a legal requirement to access it, however the drought strategy means requirements will change.

Water NSW said it can continue to satisfy stock and domestic, town water supplies and high security licence holders over the next two years under the drought srategy.

The last time the dam dropped to critical levels was in February 2007 when levels were at 1.8 per cent.

SOURCE: NVI

Pink Stumps Cricket Day

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0221

It’s on again!  Maules Creek PINK STUMPS Cricket Day this Saturday.

This is a great opportunity to get together for a relaxing day out whilst having a few drinks, watching some cricket and raising money for the worthy cause of the McGrath Foundation!

 There will be entertainment for adults and kids alike, so bring the whole family for a great day at Maules Creek!  Jumping castle, sandpit, competitions, face painting, waterslide, tug-o-war and more.

 

 

Date: Saturday, 21 February 2015
Time: From 9:00am – 5:00pm

Where:
Maules Creek Cricket Ground at the Maules Creek Hall…

Cost:
$10 per adult / $30 per family
Refreshments will be available in abundance at the fully licensed on site bar provided by Tatts Hotel (no BYO).
BBQ, merch and other goodies available through the day..

Dress:  Pink!!

Bring: Cash – there may not be an EFTpos facility on site.
Chairs / picnic blankets

More Information about the McGrath Foundation and the Pink Stumps Initiative:

PINK STUMPS DAY is an initiative of the McGrath Foundation, giving cricketing enthusiasts all over Australia the chance to experience the magic of the Sydney Pink Test in their own backyard, whilst also raising vital funds for breast cancer awareness, and the placement of breast cancer nurses in regional communities..

Since the first Pink Stumps Day in 2011, more than 2,500 communities across Australia have participated, raising over $2.3 million for the McGrath Foundation.

In turn, the McGrath Foundation has helped to support over 21,000 families in Australia who are experiencing breast cancer. The Foundation has placed over 86 breast cancer nurses in regional communities around Australia and has set the goal of having 150 breast cancer nurses working in regional communities, so that every family experiencing breast cancer has access to care and support.

Website: https://pinkstumpsday2015.gofundraise.com.au/

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 19/02/2015

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Locally, wheat, barley & canola prices have remained steady over the last week on the back of consistent steady domestic demand. Chickpeas have remained firm to slightly stronger, with sorghum losing ground. As we have been saying in previous reports, the global chickpea market is short of stock, & values will remain firm until new crop production is certain – the AUD/USD will also play its’ role. Sorghum has softened over the last week due to the size of the domestic crop – estimated at 1,980,000 tonnes, with the potential of Central QLD to become bigger. We estimate 480,000 tonnes in CQ (some traders are expecting 600-700 000mt+ from CQ), 1,000,000 tonnes in the Brisbane zone, & 500,000 tonnes in the Newcastle zone. We need to see sorghum at greater than a $20 discount to wheat to see domestic consumers increase sorghum in their rations. At $20 under wheat, poultry feeders will still include, but to a lesser extent. As a rule of thumb, beef feedlots won’t use sorghum unless its at least $30 under wheat. From the price indications below, you can see where wheat & sorghum are currently in the market. We see the biggest risk to declining domestic sorghum values is if China start purchasing cheaper U.S. corn & switch out of Australian sorghum, & the alcohol buyers don’t enter the Australian sorghum market. Exports are holding sorghum prices at current levels, not domestic demand. If the export market disappears, sorghum has to become cheaper to work its way into domestic rations. With an estimated 500,000 tonnes sold to China, the supply & demand picture becomes clearer. Therefore we think growers should be pricing some of their sorghum at current values.
Locally, sorghum is bid around $280 Narrabri with the high being around $290 last week. Sorghum 2 discounts are available for track & ex-farm contracts, but not in to Narrabri packers. Sorghum delivered Downs is around $280 with wheat at $310. This wheat/sorghum spread has only just made it to $30, previous to yesterday, it’s been less than $30 & even at parity – hence sorghum doing the work (decreasing to wheat) to create demand . 14/15 Chickpeas are currently $615 delivered Narrabri & $640/mt Downs. There are also markets for 13/14 chickpeas at approximately $10/mt discount – subject to sample. New crop peas are bid $645/mt Allora, $640/mt Downs, $630/mt Narrabri. Barley demand remains, whilst this demand has weakened slightly, it is still good value in our view with values around $300 delivered Downs. There is still good demand for high protein & off spec wheat, either ex-farm or delivered packer. There is also March/April demand for SFW wheat at around $310 delivered Downs. For growers still holding faba beans, values are $500+ delivered Narrabri. Mungbeans have softened $50 from their highs, but still remain firm. Hectare contacts are still available.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 17/02/2015

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We have been receiving a few enquiries for old crop barley over the past 2-3 weeks and barley remains difficult to place, especially large volumes. Currently, bids are around $300/mt delivered Downs but for limited tonnage or delivery spreads. Wheat demand is also fairly quiet as consumers remain covered through the first quarter of 2015. Sorghum values have dropped recently but still remain above values that domestic consumers will purchase. Today, wheat values delivered Brisbane are between $320/mt and delivered and sorghum $303/mt. This spread has widened from $5/mt out to $17/mt but still no domestic sorghum interest.

Cotton values today are in the high $520’s, with ECOM bidding $528/bale for both 2015 & 2016. There has been some recent selling of 2016 bales however this has been limited due to water uncertainty. Bore irrigators have taken the opportunity with the recent spike to commit bales for next year and this has been the bulk of business booked. Dryland growers are emerging as sellers of 2015 crop recently as well. Until now, production uncertainty has been too great to make sales, but we are seeing sellers emerge now at levels well above $500/bale.

There remains strong demand and prices for chickpeas this week. Old crop bids are $645/mt delivered Downs and $635/mt delivered Narrabri. New crop bids are $5/mt behind these. There has been strong grower enquiry and selling for new crop in the last two weeks. This is due to a combination of strong prices and hectare contracts being available this early. It’s very difficult to knock-back the chance to forward sell chickpeas at $640/mt delivered Downs for a harvest delivery! Of course there is a large portion of growers unable to participate at present due to production uncertainty as moisture profiles are too risky.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 12/02/2015

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The Aussie Dollar has fallen almost a cent today after unemployment data was released which has risen from 6.1% to 6.4%. This afternoon the Aussie is at 76.56. This fall has lifted chickpea prices and today chickpeas delivered Downs for new crop have reached $620/mt. Narrabri is bid at $615/mt and there are no buyers into Moree at present. Whilst there is a very large production risk involved, it is difficult to snob these prices. New crop values are currently above old crop prices, which hasn’t been seen until now. Old crop is between $5-10/mt behind new crop numbers today. There are a number of buyers sitting out of this market as it is even too risky for them to be involved when it’s just paper trade and the level of risk of default is significantly higher because we all know if the market tanks, the contracts aren’t worth the paper they are written on. Hectare contracts are available and are trading at a $20-30/mt discount to fixed tonnage contracts. Buyers are becoming very selective about hectare contracts and most are offering them on a case-by-case basis, not as a broad offering.

Old crop fabas are still in demand delivered Wee Waa at $480/mt for No1’s with a $15/mt discount to No2 spec. These can be taken immediately and there are cleaning facilities if required. For anyone with feed quality, please contact us. Mungbean prices remain fairly stable and we have buyers keen to look at prompt deliveries.

Cotton prices have also lifted due to the lower dollar. Today, bids have bounced around a bit and have ranged from $525-535/bale for 2015 crop and $535-542/bale for 2016.

Sorghum values have fallen this week and today delivered Brisbane bids are $310, which is $10 lower than earlier in the week. Delivered Newcastle today is $307, back from a high of $320/mt also. Narrabri values today are bid at $285/mt. There is still no real domestic demand and as such, delivered Newcastle and Brisbane contracts will more than likely go direct to port.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 10/02/2015

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Sorghum remains high in demand out of both Brisbane and Newcastle zones. Today, delivered bids for both zones are $320/mt for April/May/June delivery and would possibly trade higher with an offer. These bids are export bids as the domestic market is pretty much non-existent at these values. If we look at the sorghum/wheat spreads they are currently only $5/mt apart, which is a good sell for sorghum as we know domestic consumers will look to use sorghum in rations at a spread of at least $30/mt under wheat. This is the downside potential for sorghum once the export vessels are covered. We also need to keep in mind that cheaper US grain will compete into China post-July so April/May/June are the premium delivery months.

Barley still remains difficult to move promptly, and the delivered Downs market is around $300 today. Delivery periods are pushed out to March/April at these values. Barley XF Boggabri is around $256/mt and Coolah at $250XF for March pick-up.

Old crop faba beans values are still bid at $480/mt delivered Wee Waa with a $15/mt discount to No2 spec. We do have grading facilities available should they be required and these charges are competitive with private graders. New crop chickpea values are still at historical highs with grower selling active on both fixed tonnage and hectare contracts. Currently new crop fixed tonnage values are $590/mt delivered Downs with a $20-30/mt discount for hectare contracts.

Cotton values remain supported as basis remains strong and the AUD under 80 cents. Basis remains supported due to a lack of machine picked growth available, and the bulk of this quality comes from the US, Brazil and Australia. With expectations that these crops will be significantly lower in the 15/16 season, due to a lack of water in Aus and better returns from crops such as soybeans and peanuts. Basis bids for 2016 crop today are 1550-1600 on.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 05/02/2015

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Since last week we have seen an announcement from the RBA to further drop interest rates by 25 basis points. This has created volatility in the AUD which traded down to mid 76 cent range on Tuesday afternoon, popped to 78.60 late yesterday and this morning back into the mid 77 cent range. Locally, for anyone still holding old crop wheat we aren’t seeing an overwhelming demand from the trade. They appear to be holding long positions and largely don’t want to lengthen these positions without making sales either domestically or offshore. Australia has recently submitted bids against offshore tenders and the results of these tenders will be known in the next week or so. If successful it means we are competitive offshore, if unsuccessful, our prices will need to drop to renew offshore demand in Aussie wheat. Until then, we believe demand will remain fairly flat. In saying this, we are still seeing small pockets of demand, in particular APH and HPS-type wheat, anything with high protein. HPS with min 13% protein has traded at $280/mt ex-farm this week at Wee Waa. This is a $20-25/mt premium above domestic values.

We are starting to see some early sorghum come off locally. At the moment we are not seeing any premiums for early sorghum. As I mentioned last week, the current demand for sorghum is all export based as domestic consumers stand aside. The difficulty is that there are no vessels booked until April, so anyone buying Feb sorghum will just be carrying it through until April, hence a $5-8/mt discount for early sorghum. We believe the domestic market has stood aside as they are covered through until April and with wheat currently at $308/mt delivered Downs and sorghum at $292/mt delivered, they prefer to purchase wheat for their rations over sorghum. Due to the narrow spread they view sorghum as too expensive.

New crop chickpea values are on everyone’s minds this week, as prices sit at $600/mt delivered Downs for fixed tonnage and $570/mt for hectare contracts. Yesterday, demand out of the Subcontinent disappeared and bids disappeared late yesterday, but these values have certainly got everyone talking. Narrabri values have been around $545-550/mt for hectare contracts. Today, delivered Dubbo bids for chickpeas are $580/mt on fixed tonnage only. Cotton has also been trading this week with prices for both 2015 & 2016 reaching $525/bale and today is slightly lower.

Upcoming Events

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Feb 11 – LNCGA Meeting, CSD, Wee Waa, 11.30am

Feb 11 – CRDC Irrigation Research Tour, Moree, 7.45am – 2.30pm http://cottoninfo.com.au/events/irrigation-research-tour-moree

Feb 12 – CRDC Irrigation Research Tour, “The Wilgas”, Nevertire, 8.30am – 1.30pm http://cottoninfo.com.au/events/irrigation-research-tour-nevertire

Feb 18 – CSD Bollgard 3 Field Walk, “Keytah”, Moree, 10am http://www.csd.net.au/bg3

Feb 19 – CSD Bollgard 3 Field Walk, “Auscott”, Narrabri & “Little Mollee”, Wee Waa, 10am http://www.csd.net.au/bg3

Feb 24 – CRDC Big Day Out – “Burgorah”, St George, 2pm http://cottoninfo.com.au/events/big-day-out-2015-st-george

Feb 25 – CRDC Big Day Out – “Kensal Green”, Gunnedah, 2pm http://cottoninfo.com.au/events/big-day-out-2015-st-george

Feb 25 – CSD Bollgard 3 Field Walk, “Royston”, Goondiwindi, 9.30am http://www.csd.net.au/bg3

Feb 25 – CSD Bollgard 3 Field Walk, “Battery Hill”, Gunnedah, 3pm http://www.csd.net.au/bg3

Feb 27 – GRDC Grains Research Update, Services Club, Warren, 8.30-3pm http://www.grdc.com.au/Media-Centre/Events/2015/02/GRDC-Grains-Research-Update-Warren

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9 December – Dryland Cotton (See Image Attached)

23 December – AgVantage Commodities closes for Christmas.  Reopen 5th January 2015

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