AgVantage Commodities Market Report 31/03/2015

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Again, only the east of the Newell Highway has seen isolated showers this week, but where is has fallen it has been greatly beneficial with gentle soaking rain rather than the storms we have had previously.

Feed wheat continues to gain strength with bids of $330/mt del Downs, $325/mt del Rangers and $300/mt del Liverpool Plains.

CBOT wheat futures have made good ground overnight mainly due to a dry forecast for the US southern plains, combined with the AUD dropping to 76.52 overnight we will see about a $10 gain in Aussie values.  We will also start to see the impact of the winter kill in the American crop, as snow starts to melt, in the coming days. The USDA Crop Planting Forecast will be out tonight so that will also have an impact on where our prices will start to head.

Sorghum values have moved upwards today which is only due to the AUD falling: delivered Brisbane bids are at $320/mt, delivered Downs packers $302/mt, Narrabri at $290/mt for April/May and Newcastle at $322/mt. April deliveries for sorghum homes are closing quickly, especially for Port delivery, which we are now pricing into May/June on a buyers’ call basis. The rain has halted harvest in a few areas, but we have not heard of any grain quality issues nor expect any at this stage with the rain we have had so far.

Barley prices have not had the same movement as wheat has but still very good values into the delivered homes with delivered Downs bid at $312/mt, with Rangers and Texas at $306/mt & $302/mt respectively. Pricing is based into these northern homes so please call as freight rates are very sharp, and XF prices may be better than you think.

Chickpea prices remain at a steady level for both current crop and new crop. 14/15 crop delivered Downs is currently bid at $690/mt, and the Narrabri equivalent at $680/mt. New Crop bids are back $40-$50 from those values. There are hectare contracts still available but are heavily discounted. High protein wheat is still being sourced by buyers in all areas at a significant premium.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 26/03/2015

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This week sorghum values have remained around the $290/mt delivered Narrabri for April/May delivery. $301 delivered Downs and around the $318/mt delivered Brisbane and Newcastle. Given these values are $10-15/mt above system values, growers are selling it delivered into Narrabri over delivering into their local GrainCorp sites., the gap is narrowing with track prices very firm today. We have seen some high screenings grades recently, that have tested as SOR2 & SOR3 and after being rejected at local packers, have then gone to Bellata, Gurley & Moree GrainCorp.

Chickpea sellers have backed-off with growers still holding chickpeas waiting for another spike or holding until the next Financial Year to price their peas. Prices remain steady into Narrabri with a $5/mt jump on the downs.

During the course of the past week we have seen domestic wheat values increase and demand out until July/August. This market has traded at $330-332/mt delivered Downs for July. Most growers still holding wheat aren’t too keen on pricing this far out, and April prices are only discounted to reflect the cost of carry. Today for 70/10 delivered april on buyers call is $326/mt. We have had extremely strong demand for APH in the past few weeks. We have had an opportunity to fill a vessel and it’s all-but complete. The buyer is only chasing 1-200mt APH to complete the order. Bids have been around $305-315/mt ex-farm, depending on location and quality.

Mungbean prices remain strong and buyer demand is also strong. As mentioned previously, we suggest the best plant for marketing any unsold beans going forward is to harvest and sell based on a sample.

Barley seems to be keeping pace with wheat on the domestic market, we have seen it trade at $308/mt delivered downs for April, and prompt homes are around $305/mt. Now would be a good time to find a home before destinations become covered again.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 24/03/2015

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There have been some very wild storms in recent days, and considerable damage caused in small pockets throughout NNSW. Here in Narrabri we received a severe hail storm on Saturday evening which has wiped out cotton and mungbean crops. The area is quite localised but still we feel for the growers who have suffered. With the storms came some reasonable rain, but the area obviously still needs good general rain before many think about new crop. If you have been lucky to get under a few showers and are looking out to OCT/NOV, new crop wheat has come online and we are seeing numbers at $307/mt track NTL and $313 track BNE. 14/15 High protein wheat is still trading at a premium, and we currently have strong interest in APH1 XF for prompt pick up, also happy to see any wheat in the system or delivered as we have a range of destinations.

Currency is affecting the price surge of sorghum at the moment, with increased Chinese interest and hot dry weather across NNSW and QLD; we should have seen a few more dollars in the market but this have been capped by a rallying AUD in recent trading days. Sorghum values still remain strong but if we did see the AUD drop off again we expect these values to head north once again. There is still little to no demand in Sorghum in the domestic market at these values hence the influence of the dollar as it is all export consumption.  Today the delivered markets are still the best options with $301 deld Downs, $320 deld Bris, $290 deld Narrabri and $318 deld Newcastle. Track bids have become site specific in QLD as we get through early harvest, today the best Track BNE is $310. Trk NTL is also at $310 all sites.

Chickpeas have gone up $5/mt Downs today, with bids at $585 delivered Oakey. Narrabri is still bidding $580 delivered on a April/May/June buyers call basis.

Barley is also at good value with F1 trading at $308/mt delivered downs which was $3 above any bids.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 19/03/2015

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Sorghum remains the primary focus for a number of buyer this week. Sorghum prices have been as high as $325 delivered Newcastle and $288 delivered Narrabri, $304 delivered Downs and $322 delivered Brisbane. This week sorghum has traded at $270/mt at GrainCorp Bellata which was $3 above published bids. The demand remains purely for export and yesterday a domestic consumer was telling us he would want to see sorghum no higher than $280 delivered Newcastle before he will switch to a higher ration of sorghum. He is currently using wheat, which they are sourcing from the Central West and southern NSW at much cheaper values than the north. This means, sorghum delivered Newcastle needs to drop $45 before he will look at it. Locally, we are lucky to have a container market out of Narrabri as these values are above both track and domestic bids.

Chickpea prices remain steady this week, with old crop still bid around $680/mt for April/May/June delivery and new crop bids at $640/mt – $648/mt Narrabri and Downs. Offshore demand has gone quiet again with the Indian harvest in progress. Although this demand is quiet now, the trade have the view that prices should remain well supported right through until at least July/August this year, especially while it remains too dry to plant a crop in a large portion of NNSW/SW area. In saying there looks to be support in prices, it doesn’t mean we won’t see volatility in prices going forward.

Wheat demand is starting to pick-up again this week. Delivered Downs bids for 70/10 last week were close to $300/mt and this week they have jumped to around $316/mt/ This is for April pick-up. We are still seeing demand for high protein wheat in all locations, ex-farm, in the system and delivered packer. These bids yesterday were $330 delivered Narrabri for APH1 and $305 for APH2 and APH1 delivered Downs @ $335.

There is also demand at the moment for faba beans delivered into Wee Waa. Offshore customers are quite picky at the moment about their product and are chasing larger sized beans so a sample is required prior to contracting. Mungbeans have strengthened $50/mt and we suggest growers who remain unsold to harvest, send off a sample and price on that basis to maximise returns.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 17/03/2015

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Sorghum continues to ‘bounce’ and Friday bids were slightly lower. We believe this to be due to strong selling throughout the week and position squaring leading into the weekend. This week, values are up again and yesterday sorghum delivered Brisbane traded at $319/mt delivered, and today bid at $320/mt, with Downs destinations at $302/mt. Today, sorghum track Brisbane is bid at $311.50, depending on the site. Delivered Newcastle on Friday was $315-317/mt and today is a $320/mt. Sorghum delivered Narrabri is still around $282/mt for prompt delivery. In general, NNSW/SQ quality has been pretty good however we have seen some SOR2 & SOR3 due to high screenings around Narrabri. Unless you can store it on-farm, the only site receiving SOR3 is Gurley. Packers are only accepting SOR1.

We still have demand for high protein wheat, both in the system and on-farm. On Friday, APH2 traded in the mid $280/s at GrainCorp Bellata for prompt transfer. This was a significant premium over ‘public’ bids. It is definitely worth picking up the phone to make a call prior to selling grain as the best bid isn’t always the best bid.

Cotton values have fallen off their highs a week or two ago. Today, ECOM’s 2015 bid is $518 & 2016 at $525.

There hasn’t really been a lot of movement in chickpeas, they are still at $680/mt delivered Narrabri for April/May/June delivery and $640 for new crop. Downs values are $680/mt for 14/15 crop and $648/mt for new crop. There are still hectare contracts available but priced on a case-by-case basis. The discounts applied to hectare contracts over fixed tonnage mean strong consideration to committing a portion of fixed tonnage over a hectare contract is also warranted.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 12/03/2015

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This week has seen sorghum prices lift slightly and yesterday values into Narrabri ranged from $278-286/mt, depending on delivery period. Prompt sorghum is discounted slightly however sorghum for April/May/June and even July is being priced around $286/mt. Demand is strong and buyers are keen to own sorghum. Delivered Newcastle sorghum today is at $320/mt and Brisbane $318/mt.

Chickpea prices remain stable with old crop at $665/mt delivered Narrabri and new crop at $640/mt. Hectare contracts are available for new crop but we believe after the initial wave of selling a month ago most growers are not too keen on locking in until crops are at least in and up. Offshore demand for new crop has gone quiet again but the trade are confident that even though it is quiet at the moment, there should be good demand out of the Subcontinent right through the season. As always, we should expect volatility through the coming months.

High protein wheat is still of interest and this week there has been strong buying interest for APH2 in AWB Bellata. We believe this to be limited interest and the buyer has been paying a premium above market values. Today, that bid would be $275 site. Domestic wheat values have dropped slightly this week. Last week 70/10 delivered Downs was around $310/mt and this week it’s back to $304 at best. Demand isn’t very strong and a number of traders are telling us they are covered until at least the end of April or only need a ‘couple of hundred tonnes’ for the March or April period.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 10/03/2015

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Today we have strong interest in up to 1000mt APH2 at AWB Bellata. The bid today is $277/mt which is at a significant premium to the general bids ($263-265/mt) in the market. It is a short-term opportunity only and once the tonnage is filled, the bid will disappear. 70/10 homes remain farily well covered and demand is not very strong for wheat. Yesterday wheat bids onto the Downs were only $5-10/mt stronger than sorghum so the focus is on selling sorghum rather than wheat. There are still opportunities for pricing high protein wheat at premiums but these are sporadic and limited in tonnage as offshore demand isn’t very strong.

Sorghum remains active although sellers are limited. Quality concerns, rather than price remain the biggest barrier to larger volumes trading. Bids remain well above $300 in both Newcastle and Brisbane zones. We still have the view that once export homes are filled, the market will see a significant drop as domestic consumers aren’t interested in sorghum at current values. If growers resist selling, we could see some short covering emerge to push prices higher, but with most grower largely unsold south of Boggabri, we expect there will be some selling at harvest to get grain moving off-farm, and cashflow moving.

14/15 Chickpea bids remain strong and around $665/mt delivered Downs for April/May delivery and a similar price into Narrabri for April/May/June delivery. These prices are buyer’s call and we expect delivery will take place towards the back end of the delivery period. For prompt of firm delivery times, it’s best to make an individual enquiry. Demand seems to be strong right through until June/July and we don’t know what prices will do that far out, but we will more than likely run out of old crop peas prior to demand slowing. There are a number of products available for new crop chickpea pricing. Both fixed tonnage & hectare contracts are available. Grower selling has slowed at the moment and we expect will remain very quiet until we either receive a significant fall of rain or crops are in and up. New crop No1 faba bean hectare contracts are bid around $420/mt delivered Narrabri for fixed tonnage and a $20/mt deduction for No2’s. This price is for October delivery only and November bids are less $20/mt. Old crop faba beans are being priced on a case-by-case basis and very dependent on sample as buyer’s very focused on size and colour.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 05/03/2015

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This week we have seen sorghum values remain fairly steady with delivered Narrabri values still ranging between $280-285/mt delivered and the Newcastle delivered market is around a $305-309/mt this week. Delivered Downs is bid at $280/mt and Brisbane $303. The domestic livestock demand is still very flat, with export markets still posting the strongest returns. Logistically, we are finding it difficult to move prompt or ‘as it comes’ sorghum because everyone is trying to manage receivals / packing and the logistics of export. We have been encouraging growers to have a program in place for the coming months and this will most likely require utilisation of your own on-farm storage.

As always, the chickpea market has remained volatile this week and old crop bids have jumped another $15/mt. Today these values into Narrabri are $665/mt for April/May/June delivery and as high as $670/mt delivered Downs for April/May delivery. Most buyers are factoring in a $5/mt per month carry so March delivery into Narrabri would be around $650/mt, possibly slightly below this. New crop chickpea selling has backed-off during the course of the past week, with demand also easing. Most growers would like to see the crop at least planted and established before taking on production risk.

Old crop faba bean values remain strong and today are $495-500/mt delivered Wee Waa for No1’s with a $10/mt discount to No2 quality. Doza’s are more difficult to move as they are a smaller bean but can be priced on a case-by-case basis.

There is still demand for high protein wheat delivered Narrabri or ex-farm. There are still premiums over the domestic market for these grades of wheat. APH1 delivered Narrabri has been priced between $320-324/mt, depending on protein and APH2 around $300. Barley remains difficult to move quickly in volume as demand is thin.

 

Upcoming Events

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11 March – Weed Movement – Machinery Inspection and Cleaning, Goondiwindi, 8.30am-4.30pm registration required Cassie Gardiner on 02 67631276 or 67631285  http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/profarm/courses/weed-movement-machinery-inspection-and-cleaning

12 March – Shaking off the Dust

marevent212 March – National Cotton Grower of the Year Field Day 

12 March – Weed Movement – Machinery Inspection and Cleaning, Mungindi, 8.30am-4.30pm registration required Cassie Gardiner on 02 67631276 or 67631285  http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/profarm/courses/weed-movement-machinery-inspection-and-cleaning

 17-18 March – Faba Bean Best Management Practice, O’Sheas Hotel, Goondiwindi, 9am-5pm http://www.pulseaus.com.au/pdf/Diary%20Dates/Nth%20Faba%20bean%20Course%20Flier%202015.pdf

19 March – (UNCGA) Upper Namoi Cotton Growers Association Awards Dinner, Gunnedah

24 March – CSD Bollgard 3 Field Walk, ‘Kilmarnock’ Boggabri

24 March – (UNCGA) Upper Namoi Cotton Growers Association Field Day

24  March – Soil Nutrition Workshop for Growers, Warialda Golf & Bowling Club, 8.30am-1pm , Jo Weier 0427 231 701

24-25 March  – SMARTtrain Chemical Application (Level 3), ACRI, Narrabri, 8.30am-4.30pm, Cassie Gardiner on 02 67631276 or 67631285 http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/profarm/courses/smarttrain3

24-25 March – Faba Bean Best Management Practice, ACRI, Narrabri 9am-5pm http://www.pulseaus.com.au/pdf/Diary%20Dates/Nth%20Faba%20bean%20Course%20Flier%202015.pdf

25  March – Soil Nutrition Workshop for Growers, Rowena Hotel, 8.30am-1pm , Jo Weier 0427 231 701

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 03/03/2015

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Chickpeas remain steady and demand for old crop is still strong, which we believe will continue right through until July/August. New crop chickpea buyers have lost their shine as offshore demand is quiet at the moment. We expect this will probably be volatile until the Indian harvest is complete and their production is realised. We are still a little way off planting our crop and for a large area of potential chickpea country, it will still require a significant fall of rain to attempt to put a crop in.

We get the feeling that coming into sorghum harvest prompt, or ‘as it comes’ homes are going to become more difficult to find. We need to remember that packer homes are still full of wheat and chickpea stocks and won’t have large space available for continuous deliveries of sorghum. Port facilities can only receive a certain amount weekly and most buyers get their allocation the week prior. Because domestic market demand remains quiet, there will only be ‘bits and pieces’ of sorghum that will fill these spots as the wheat/sorghum spread remains too tight.

We strongly suggest growers start to make a plan on how they are going to move their sorghum, both from a marketing and logistics perspective.

Sorghum prices remain trading in a $5-7/mt range, with Brisbane at $300 delivered, Newcastle around $304 today and Narrabri back $4 from Friday at $280/mt delivered.

We have seen a sniff of new crop wheat selling interest emerge in the past week. A lot of these enquiries are just that and while we haven’t seen genuine selling yet, track values are in the mid-high $280’s. The magic number at the moment is $300 port and we aren’t too far from this.

Mungbean harvest continues and although prices have dropped $50/mt in the past week, still at historically fairly high levels. Please contact us for any enquiries as we still have hectare contracts available.

Cotton values today are $545/bale for both 2015 & 2016 season. We have basis contracts available for 2016 as well, with basis today at 1720 on for the May 2016 contract.

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