AgVantage Commodities Market Report 26/11/2015

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Most markets have been bullied around this week, with better quality grain less affected by falling futures and a higher $AUD. Canola has been the biggest loser in the markets with values in Australian dollar terms at least $40/mt lower since the 1st November, caused by an absolute drubbing in the futures market along with full feed homes out until February delivery. There are some shorts in the market, with $500/mt bid for min 38% oil flat price ex farm Boggabri yesterday. Durum has hung on surprisingly well, but one feels pressure on this market is increasing with a major buyer sitting aside for the time being. DR1 was bid at $420/mt Newcastle port, and shows a good selling opportunity in the current global durum market. High grade wheat, such as APH and high protein AUH are very well priced into the Narrabri packers, they are nearly past the mad chickpea rush and have decent turnaround times. Most growers have opted to store wheat and barley, wether its in the system or on farm then cash chickpeas and canola as both the latter commodities are historically well priced. Chickpeas have traded sideways over the past week, with opportunities to get over $800/mt delivered packer, and very high ex-farm values west and south of Narrabri, chcikpeas traded XF Coonamble at $790/mt and $780/mt XF Gunnedah. 2016/17 chickpeas are also well priced with delivered bids at $755/mt del Narrabri and $720/mt for a HA contract delivered downs. This shows there is great support in the market for the coming 12-18 months. SFW wheat is bid around $245/mt XF Narrabri, working into a $270/mt delivered Tamworth or $280/mt delivered Downs. Growers should also realise many buyers in the system do not display bids for cash at site and offers can get more dollars out of the market than just settling for cash pricing, and don’t underestimate spikes in the market, as it is weak at the moment but shorts will arise and show a good selling opportunity.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 19/11/2015

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Agricultural commodity markets have all dipped lower over the past week, with fluctuations in the markets resulting from speculator and fund views with no real news from a fundamental point of view.  December Chicago wheat has had three days of losses, finishing at $US4.83/bushel on Wednesday night, the lowest it has been since mid September. Although from a technical point of view it would appear that we have reached the bottom of the range and should see some buying back into the market. Globally; stocks are still sitting very comfortably and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. As northern hemisphere crops move closer to the dormancy period it is unlikely any real data will influence the markets. We have a potential for movement in prices here domestically as concerns over crop quality come to light, growers north of Narrabri have generally had no issues and are very close to finishing harvest, but the growers in central and southern parts of NSW are having a really tough time of it. Our yield probably wont be too affected but what is going to be affected and we are already seeing is that spreads between lower grades, as more and more wheat is being classified as, and higher grades of milling wheat will widen, not necessarily meaning prices will skyrocket but there should be good values for better quality wheat as we move into the post harvest period. Growers with high protein and high screenings, or HPS grade have the option of delivering into Narrabri packers at a good premium over the Graincorp system, and also ex-farm December/January will be a good time to price this grade. Chickpeas have remained stable over the week, only fluctuating $40/mt or so (which is a small fluctuation for peas), with most growers looking to sell as soon as they are harvested. Barley is struggling to find its place in the market with most values having a $1 in front of it if you were looking at ex-farm bids. Durum is slightly lower this week, with no huge appetite just yet, interest is in Newcastle port with delivered and port pricing the exact same yesterday at $422/mt for DR1.

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