AgVantage Commodities Market Report 21/04/2016

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Finally we can report some good news on the wheat front, Chicago wheat futures have rallied strongly in the past 3 sessions and the May contract closed above US$5/bushel for the first time since the middle of December 2015. Although we haven’t seen the full extent of the futures rally passed on to Australian cash prices, as the AUD has risen over 2 cents for the same period, capping the amount Australian growers have been bid. Now we must stress there has been NO fundamental news to support this rally, as we have stated previously the funds are net short and the past couple of sessions have been completely speculative, based on covering the net short position held by the funds. This does show a good opportunity to sell into a spike, numbers are expected to be $5/mt higher today and about $15/mt higher for the week. If your price target has been met then you should look to capitalise on this market movement.

Cotton has also bounced this week with May futures rallying to over US$6.40/pound overnight, the highest we have seen that contract since the start of January. Very timely news for growers looking to get their ginning done in the next few weeks. Growers looking to capture these overnight prices should be putting orders in with us and they will automatically get locked in once the price target is reached. $450/bale is currently a good point to be locking these orders in.

Domestically feed demand is still lacking, the trade seems to be buying hand to mouth, and this is generally for smaller tonnages. Barley has been a strong performer showing a $10/mt premium than last week. SFW1 wheat remains sluggish, many growers having price ideas much higher than where bids currently are.  APH1 is strongly sought after ex farm

Chickpeas have been very strong, with $100/mt gains for new crop over the past fortnight. Growers can expect to lock peas in at over $900/mt for fixed tonnage and in the low to mid $800s/mt for hectare contracts. There are a variety of options available so please contact to discuss.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 14/04/2016

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Chickpeas and faba beans have been the performer of the past week, with cotton also moving higher – which has many growers who were largely unsold relieved that the run down had ceased for the time being. Chickpeas have moved about $20-30/mt higher, which has seen some confident growers look to engage the market and get some more cover at these very high prices. Hectare contracts have also moved upward with high $700’s being achieved. Faba beans have been very flat up until this week when demand hit prices of over $400/mt delivered. In the current market for faba beans this price shows a good spike for growers looking to cover some price risk.

Cotton continues its fight back with common bids around $435, with some parcels trading at $440 this week.

Wheat CBOT futures were close to recent lows again this week, but have since found support on the back of the weather driven market. There have been some system and local feed spikes, and once again can be a good strategy for growers to secure prices above where market bids are.

Sorghum pricing continues to slip lower, as losses of about $8-10/mt have been seen across most of the zones.

The AUD has seen some large swings over the week, with every rally or loss, followed by the opposite the next day. At writing it was trading at US$0.7643.

F1 barley both in the system and ex farm remains very flat and demand very very lacklustre. With still plenty of the crop around and many feedlots/end users cover for periods out to 5 + months, neither are too worried to chase any large tonnage.

Mungbeans have and are being harvested with good quality being reported. Prices still remain very high, and we have seen new crop mungbean contracts being offered at similar levels to current crop.

If growers are still holding stocks, please call and discuss your options and your available stocks. If we know what stocks you are holding and the target prices you have we can review these daily for you and be in touch the moment we see a spike in a market.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 07/04/2016

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CBT wheat futures took a hit overnight down 10-11 USc/bu across all contract months. May closed at 463 USc/bu with Dec at 494.25 USc/bu, as USDA first winter wheat crop condition report showed conditions better than market expectations, with weather risk premium easing market short position holders. Corn future made modest gains, supported by firmer energy product values, with the May contract at 358 USc/bu and Dec at $371.50, still in recovery mode following the last month USDA report. Oilseed futures continue to make small gains with futures values for Soybean and Canola holding at the top of the recent trading ranges. The $A hold around the .76 level or benefit only to importers.

Lack of rain continues to provide some support for domestic values, with demand into the grazier markets picking up. Feedlot and Stockfeed manufactures continue to hold good forward coverage and continue to buy hand to mouth on any additional demand, usually in small volume lots. Exportable stocks of grains remain in Brisbane and southern port zones, with limited exports appearing on the shipping stems as export values remain at a discount to the domestic market.

Higher protein wheats, H2 or better, continue to find some modest support in both the track and X farm markets for both Newcastle and Brisbane port zones. Lower grade interest is improving with the buyers with grade price spreads narrowing towards the APW level.

Durum wheat finds a buyer for all grades in both track and delivered bids available. Level of demand is unknown and limited buyer competition remains. Some positive news internationally for Durum, is that Moroccan harvest is well below last year and increased imports will be needed, at least assisting in reducing carry over of global stocks. Barley demand is improving modestly, with bid levels unchanged to $5 firmer in freight advantaged areas. Sorghum values hold as harvest progresses, with no quality issues and yields above expectations given the season. Mungbean harvest continues with seasonal conditions lowering yield prospects, with quality holding mostly in the processing grade. Most packers are fully committed through into May, with some buyers not buying with export markets proving difficult for the July onwards period. Faba Bean sellers will be destined for the domestic feed markets as export interest is absent and limited price indication for new crop are seen. Reports of planting in western regions this week and further east to commence next week.

Chickpea values continue to firm, with current crop stocks limited has seen early harvest, October delivery premium of $20 over November. Lack of sellers and keen buyers has seen new crop values improve with track bids at $840 port basis and packer bids $860 Downs and $840 Narrabri region for fixed tonnes. Area contracts, minimum.25t/ha are at a $50 – $70 discount.

Cotton bids hold in the $420-$425 range, with buyers offering various pricing options to growers to allow for ginning and pricing later options.

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