AgVantage Commodities Market Report 10/11/2016

Just when we though that the weather had thrown in everything bar the kitchen sink in 2016, we wake up to find the kitchen sink has arrived as well with the news of Donald Trump as president of the United States. Global financial markets have responded with volatility on the back of Trumps campaign rhetoric leading up to the election. Now it will be a wait & see game to determine what the actual ramifications will be to U.S government policy. Like the Brexit decision, markets will take time to digest, & we hope the sky does not come falling down – the worst usually doesn’t happen!
On the local front, harvest is now underway around most areas of our region. Faba beans have been disappointing with low quality & lack of demand being the main issues. We are currently working hard to find domestic markets & encourage growers to call us with their stocks so we can contact them when markets become available. Barley & wheat has not escaped the quality issues either, with some growers being hit with black point staining in their crops. No chickpeas have been harvested in our area, & the market remains optimistic on quality, however with rain this week, risk remains & we continue to caution growers. Prices vary greatly from location to location & we encourage growers to speak with us in order to understand the best location for their individual circumstances.
F1 barley is bid $130 xfarm around Narrabri. Wheat delivered local packer: APH1 $280, APH2 $270, H2 $230, APW $205. Little demand for fabas in the export market, but there is renewed interest in the domestic market – calling for offers. Canola is bid $500 xfarm Narrabri on a flat oil & admix basis. Chickpeas are $795 local packer for first half of December delivery.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 4/11/2016


Harvest seems to be coming in ever so slowly with faba beans barley, & some wheat delivered this week. It seems that the faba bean wows we have been warning about have come true, with many growers not being able to make number two quality due to seasonal weather effects. We would expect that if the quality issues continue, that the spread between number 1 & number 2 quality will widen, & number 3 quality will only be valued in the limited domestic market. Early barley & wheat yields are pleasing with Walgett APH2 coming off at 4.5mt/ha. On the international stage, nothing has really changed for the wheat complex, & Australia will need to compete in this space. With the current burdensome global supplies of wheat, we don’t expect prices to rally in the next twelve months. Protein wheat remains well priced. The December delivery period for chickpeas remains uncertain, but is showing signs of demand weakness. This will be something to watch closely, as many growers in northern NSW will be delivering in the last week of November to the first half of December. Canola is well priced with growers achieving $500 xfarm for first half November delivery. We recommend that growers understand their oil quality to find the best markets, that is, flat priced oil with no premiums or discounts, or if they have 425 oil or better, they will normally be better off going to an oil bonification market. Most growers in northern NSW have completed cotton planting, & whilst the cool temperatures have created some challenges, most growers are reporting that their cotton is looking good. Mungbeans are an opportunity crop worth considering this year & growers looking for details can contact us. With the next few weeks of weather looking warmer & fine, we expect that harvest should finally get under way & give growers a window of opportunity delivered packer.

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