AgVantage Commodities Market Report 20/07/2017

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With scattered showers dampening Northern New South Wales (NNSW) over the past week there has been a slight dusting of around 10-15mm but nothing to really influence positive growth at this much needed time of year. As frosts and dry windy weather continue across the state, it also continues to drive the demand across export and domestic markets. If we look beyond our borders in regards to climate conditions, we know that northern Europe has been struggling moisture wise, though the Italian and Spanish crops in Southern Europe also are being impacted just as much by the dry weather with reports of severe reduction in their seasons output. This is set to affect more than just grain with other food commodities taking a huge hit as well. The US is forecasted to face increased temperatures with moisture set to avoid the most desperate areas. The weather for now remains quite reassuring of strong basis and as stated last week conditions will continue to adversely impact the market supply.

As we look to new crop for feed wheat, it has continued its positive run due to the weather driving demand at home and abroad. With another jump in the past seven days growers will see bids of $345 delivered Darling Downs for January and current crop feed wheat is very much in the same boat showing prices of $335. F1 feed Barley continues to linger around with prices at the $315 mark. Sorghum again has followed closely trailing just behind at $290 for delivery in to the Downs July 2017. Chickpeas are showing some spark though with recent weather conditions or lack of, it forces the market to be fairly steady on what is to be expected yield wise this coming season. Last week I labelled the Chickpea market placid, I will stick to my guns on this one as July does not seem like the month for anything too exciting. Brisbane Port delivered for July in to August is where bids remain firm at $965. For new crop peas, nothing to really alter from previous bids over the past 10-12 days as $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $840 Brisbane delivered for September in to the following months seem to be where the market is staying firm. Now talking Faba Beans, they brought some excitement as the market decided to make a progressive move price wise. As the demand has slightly diminished over the last couple of days due to scattered showers, we are still definitely on track for Faba’s to continue their promising rise. Prices are being seen at the $240-45 mark Ex-Farm depending location for July and August pick up, and the domestic market seems to be the most interested in Faba’s as of late.

In regards to Nearest Terminal Port (NTP) Prices, APW multi grade new crop for 2017/18 sits at bids of $315 Newcastle. Gladstone and Mackay ports follow closely behind Newcastle showing $300 and Brisbane leaping another $5 with a more than adequate price of $345. Queensland ports Gladstone and Mackay at the moment are bringing prices of $865 for new crop Chickpeas, NNSW main port of Newcastle follows the northern ports at the same September/October delivery period. Sorghum for delivered port remains quite steady though still on the slow climb with prices ranging between $280-90 for Brisbane and Newcastle.

Cotton has definitely come off the mind of the commodity market as the season came to an end and as grain continues to show its strengths. In the United States cotton crops are looking favourable with no signs of any unpredicted events to occur, though this can also change as December futures are quite volatile to any progress reports that may come out. Bids across the board for Cotton are stable at $520/bale for 2017 cotton and 2018 cotton is still relatively established at $490/bale. The Aussie dollar against the green back has continued its hike and looks like it is settling between the 0.78-80 cent margin, as of today the AUD stands slightly over the $0.79 level.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 13/07/2017

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As stated previously in passing weeks, winter is beginning to take its toll on most aspects across the state of New South Wales. With temperatures barely reaching maximums of twenty degrees during the day throughout the north and lows recorded of 5 below zero, this is not doing any wonders for emerging crops. Any rain that was hoped for seems to have dispersed and the only thing hitting the ground now is solid frost. July is characteristically quite impulsive for weather conditions, and international crop marketplaces, and it seems that this year is not going to break tradition. On an international scale, rain across the United States’ Corn Belt and in Western Canada has continued to keep the crop progress quite firm at a good to excellent level. There are a few anxious individuals that seem to expect some abstract shifts in advance to this evening’s USDA WASDE report, the data gathered from the WASDE report should have its typical influences across the board but also not change too many minds just yet. I feel it is more likely that the report will emphasis that the weather conditions will just continue to adversely impact the market supply.

2018 feed Wheat has positively kept its strengths that it has been drawing from over the past month. Prices of $340 delivered Darling Downs for January are up from last week with prompt delivery bids showing $325 which is a very nice increase in just under 5 days. F1 feed Barley cracks $300 with Sorghum only trailing by $15 at $285 for August/September Downs Delivery 2017. In regards to Chickpeas, there is little to report, as we continue to check the forecasts for weather and keep eyes on the peas evolving from planting, the prices have stayed quite placid. $965 delivered Brisbane Port for July in to August is where bids remain firm. 2017/18 bids for Chickpeas still remain unmoved significantly showing at the mark of $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $870 delivered Brisbane for September and early October. Faba Beans were traded this week west of Narrabri for No. 3’s or better at $245 Ex-Farm for Jul/Aug pick-up for buyers call and as well west of Moree at $250 for the same delivery period. All parcels were for the domestic market. This shows that the current weather is having quite the impact and is a major driving force behind the market as of late.

APW multi grade for 2018 NTP Newcastle climbs again this week even though not by too much, it is still a very comforting sign at the mid $330’s. Gladstone and Mackay have also shown nice improvement with an increase of $10 showing at $300 and Brisbane jumping another $20 for NTP price of $340. The Queensland ports of Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay for new crop Chickpeas are at $850 with Newcastle Port coming in at the same price for New South Wales for September/October delivery. Sorghum, as for Brisbane and Newcastle NTP prices are strong with ranging prices from $280-90.

Cotton remains quiet as grains take centre stage of the market show it seems. Values are not too inconsistent and continue their same streak as previous weeks have shown, with bids at $525/bale for 2017 cotton. For the 2018 season cotton it is still quite settled at a price of $490/bale. The Aussie dollar is still staying quite high and has barely altered in the past fortnight and at the moment isn’t showing any signs of shifting from just above $0.76 today.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 6/07/2017

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The second half of the year has now kicked off with July, and Mother Nature has sure let us know that winter is well and truly upon us with a very fresh frosty start on the weekend just been. Northern New South Wales (NNSW) was lucky enough to see some rain last week though it was almost gone before it arrived for some areas. Narrabri, Moree and towards the east saw a healthy 30-35mm around the towns last week, where the volume quickly deteriorated the further west you went with Rowena halving the amount of what the strip of the Newell Highway received. It’s nothing too tremendous but it is a start to what will be the season ahead. The days are bringing high teens but the nights are dropping to only a couple of degrees above freezing.

The weather abroad has driven the export demand as there is not much faith in Canada and the US seeing any positive wether events in the near future. We can say the same thing domestically as there has been some moisture spread around, though here hasn’t been enough to impact the market heavily. Canada had its national day on Monday which was then followed by the US holiday that is Independence Day or the 4th of July celebrations which has especially come round quickly this year. This meant that numerous futures exchanges were shut and closed for the days trading implying that there is a smaller amount to report than normal.

As the market has had an exciting start to the month across the board, the opportunity for growers to offer a price that is a little more expensive than bids is not out of the question. With rising prices, bids seem to be there as a bench mark, but an offer of that little more is definitely not going to be ignored or unnoticed. Where growers stand at the moment is being able to offer the increased price but also have the choice to play the wait and watch game, which is showing very beneficial for some players.

Feed Wheat for January 2018 has become extremely attractive by jumping $20 since last week as dry weather continues to drive demand at $320 delivered Darling Downs. For bids in this current time, you are looking again at a nice increased price of $310. F1 feed Barley at a positive of $290 with Sorghum bids delivered Downs are sturdier at $280/mt for August 2017. Chickpeas continue their strength holding at the continuous levels for the past fortnight at $920/mt delivered Narrabri, or $965 Darling Downs for July delivery. 2017/18 chickpea bids haven’t had much movement and continue their sheepish prices at $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $850 Darling Downs for September and early October delivery. Faba beans have had some more energy with Ex-Farm parcels being quite prevalent with the recent rise in price. Values are at $210-15 Ex-Farm around the Narrabri/Moree area and $220 Downs.

2018 multi grade APW NTP Newcastle just keeps outdoing itself week in and week out with an appealing spike of roughly $20 sitting at $310-15 and Gladstone and Mackay sitting at $292 and Brisbane $320. Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay NTP for Chickpeas are at $920 followed by Newcastle at $850 for September/October delivery. Sorghum prices for Brisbane and Newcastle NTP are strong at the mid $280’s.

Cotton continues to be not so much at the forefront of the picture, though the USDA did also minimise the cotton planting forecast which has only raised some eyebrows at most. Prices are not fluctuating much and have been a bit static as of late you could say. It is $525/bale for current crop, with new crop for the 2018 season at a price of $490. The Australian dollar’s decline is really the only one across the currencies as competitiveness continues to rise. The AUD is trading at just above $0.76 today.

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