AgVantage Commodities Market Report 26/10/2017

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Fact of the Day – The Box Jellyfish, which is found in the waters of the Great Barrier Reef is responsible for more deaths than snakes, sharks and saltwater crocodiles combined.

The rain looks to have come and gone for now as temperatures are set to heat up over the next few days. The warmer weather will be welcomed as fields dry and headers can get moving once again. As the rain was more delayed then desired, the winter crops didn’t get to grasp the potential that was possible as crops were far too matured. With temperatures set to rise just below 40 degrees in the next few days, this creates a well-timed window for most to get summer crops in the ground and make the most out of the October falls and moisture profiles. Seasons are changing across the world and the US winter plantings are much ahead of schedule then first anticipated, though for the time being it is nothing to jump around about as there is quite a cold front set to arrive across the southern plains in only a matter of days. This chilling weather could have a detrimental impact on the progression of the plantings schedule, Mother Nature’s wrath will be quite telling come next week!!

As more and more growers get a start on their paddocks, it is bringing forward a much better understanding of the quality and quantity being seen across the bordering states. From what we have seen thus far, although not much due to weather conditions, protein Wheat is prevalent with many buyers obliging too multi grade spreads and screening specifications subject to confirmation. Feed Wheat looks to be coming off as well, however if we are to see much more protein Wheat this season, the domestic demand for feed Wheat should rally as the higher quality grains will be destined for export. As referenced above, Sorghum is a grand talking point. With an abundance going in the ground over the next couple of weeks, the market has definitely softened with buyers more looking to see what kind of area goes to ground. Ex-Farm prices for February 2018 are floating around the $225/mt mark with delivered Darling Downs at $255. Over the next few months Sorghum will definitely be a market to observe, pending summer conditions ahead. Faba Beans…. The talk on all our lips for the past few months now, old crop is still sought after though not at the prices and delivery period once seen and hoped for. Most buyers are looking for Ex-Farm Nov/Dec pick up at around the $250-55 subject to location. New season crop delivered Narrabri stands at $290 for top grade less $20 for number two beans.

Chickpeas have been quite active over the past seven days, not so much on a physical point of view but more through pricing. As most seem to be a little green still, traditionally November is where it all begins so we should be seeing a lot more soon to be delivered in to sites across the region. Prices in to Narrabri have moved around $50 dollars in the past week from $790/mt to $840 (at time of writing) this seems to have eased off throughout the last few days though. How the market is looking on a much broader spectrum internationally, India are paying $200/USD more than other pulses such as Lentils and Faba’s, this relays to us that there will be continued buying but at what price?. Looking at Australian crop from a sub-continent point of view, the quality, yield and weather are all contributing factors in to the supply being chased, though growers not selling could easily give the market that rally on the short term.

In regards to summer crop planting, Cotton is well and truly going in the ground as of late with many growers holding off till that last bit of wet weather came through. With the production levels quite positive here at home, the US season has a level of unsteadiness at this point in time. Cotton futures had a nice surge on Monday with the market focussing on the freezing weather set to roll in on the vital production regions. The US department of Ag estimates that 20% of bolls around Texas had yet to be opened and frost towards the back end of the week could prove devastating. Bale prices followed the weather forecast with 2018 bumping to the $510 mark and 2019 at $475. The Aussie starts today another quarter‑cent lower at about 0.775 mark (at time of writing). Its progress has been suffering against the greenback, though is quite positive in contrast to the alternate currencies.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 19/10/2017

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Fact of the Day – While mining is one of the biggest industries in this country, more land is covered by pubs than mines in Australia.

As continued showers have trickled across the northern parts of NSW and southern QLD, many growers are yet to get in to full swing of this seasons harvest. With areas between Moree and the border being most gifted weather wise, it seems there is more set to roll in this coming weekend with a predicted 10-20mm for the Gwydir and Lower Namoi Valleys arriving late Friday afternoon and set to ease throughout Saturday. For the parts not affected as much by the conditions, growers are getting in to what paddocks are ready with Barley and protein Wheat coming off slowly as chickpeas don’t look too far off as well. On an international scale, we touched on Russia last week, the country is still leading the charge through the export market as their growers are still reeling from the record harvest they have just had in which is lowering values across the market. Looking across the ocean, the USDA has noted that around 60% of the winter Wheat crop has been planted as of the end of last week which is above the five year average by 11%.

This week the market has generally been processing October’s WASDE report that was released last Thursday evening. Though there was no metaphoric spanner thrown in the works, the USDA still stood by the increased yield across the states which kept values much softer. Australian prices have firmed up since the report was released, the domestic market now just looks to the climate to see what is forecasted over the next few weeks as harvest continues and summer crops are planted. The feed Wheat market still remains firm this week looking at new crop delivery for January 2018 in to the Darling Downs, prices are at the $325 level for both old and new crop. We are still not sick of the talk about wet conditions yet though it could have come a lot sooner, though rule number one is never wish away the rain. Headers sit waiting for paddocks to dry and planters are just as eager if not more to get summer crops in (Cotton, Sorghum). As stated above, more rain is set to roll in at the back end of this week, this should be the last drop before we see more warm sunny days, allowing areas needing that little bit extra to take it in before getting the crops in the ground.

The Sorghum market still remains quite soft compared to a fortnight ago with many buyers ‘sitting on their hands’ till there is a more educated idea of what is planted. Prices delivered in to the Downs for December are at the $305 mark with January bids at $265. New crop feed Barley is in demand for not just the feedlots but also for milling use. Prices in to the Darling Downs have kept their strengths for October delivery at $312 and as well Ex-Farm prices around Narrabri sitting round $285 depending location and demand. The Faba Bean market for old crop has lessened over the past few days due to the prevalence of new crop now being harvested. Ex-Farm prices are at $250-55 subject to location around the North West and plains, with recent new crop of No. 1 quality at $300 and No.2’s twenty dollars less at $280 delivered in to Narrabri.

As northern New South Wales is still drying out from the last 3 weeks of rain, predominately around Moree and north towards the border, there has been some life shown in the Chickpeas. With some of the later planted peas holding on through the harsh September, this latest dose of moisture has kicked them along for some growers and look to be set for stripping in to November. Delivery for 2017/18 crop prices in to the Gladstone and Mackay port zones are much softer this week as there is much more of a supply as we face the back end of October. Prices sit at $825/mt for October in to November only delivery and Narrabri prices for October/November are around the $820 mark (at time of writing). At the moment and continuing from our last comment, the demand for export is still quite low due to the large amounts of peas across the sub-continent.

As stated earlier, the recent rain across the luckier areas has been welcomed as planting is set to get underway and storage dams receiving a nice top up ahead of a supposed wet summer. Bale prices are moderately unchanged coming off last week’s WASDE report, 2018 cotton has fallen back under the $500 mark now at $490 with 2019 cotton just less at the $465 mark. As the price has fluctuated over the past week, the overseas market looks to be regrouping to where it stood pre-hurricane season months ago. As picking in the US gets roaring the trade side should ease through the futures market as the supply of Cotton will increase and begins to hit the market. The USD rallied overnight spurred on by the soon to be changing of the guard of the Federal Reserve with John Taylor soon to take over from Janet Yellen. The Aussie dollar is little changed today and sits at around the $0.785 mark (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 12/10/2017

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Fact of the Day – More than 80 percent of Australians live within 100 kilometres of the coast making Australia one of the world’s most urbanised coastal dwelling populations.

Scattered showers over the weekend and during the last couple of days seem to have been a little more of a hindrance than help for some. The North Western part of the state was privy to some rain, increased temperatures and humidity, but now looking at a couple of building storms throughout the remainder of this week. We are now closing in on the second half of October, traditionally a benchmark for many to start rolling in to the paddock and begin stripping. With many growers already pulling off grain, some are also still waiting for crops to turn and fields to dry before any real harvest gets going. Looking across the globe, as Russia has just come off a bumper harvest, they are lucky enough to look to experience more rain to prime the land just before their winter sowing, all quite positive on the western front for now.  As showers have cleared Stateside in the U.S, the mid-west and plains are facing just on warmer temperatures before they are set to subside heading in to winter. Though the Southern states are still yet to face forecasted showers following Hurricane Nate’s path over the major cotton producing states, winds are not the detrimental factor but more so the rain that could show a troublesome quality hit for some.

As we reach the in-between stage of old crop to new crop, it is always of great benefit to stop and plan ahead, especially on wet days (not that we have had many) to think about where the market is and how it will affect yourself as a grower, and the business. When looking forward in regards to grain on farm, it is best to stay on top of the quality and quantity you hold, this allows the decision making process much more dynamic and simpler when reading the market and how it feeds back to you as an entity. The end goal is to minimise risk and to keep informed, otherwise market highs may be missed which can be detrimental on the end dollars per tonne. With harvest looming, buyers are looking to subdue their buying and look to purchase tonnages during harvest at discounted prices based off the high prices seen throughout Southern Queensland and NNSW.

This week the Chicago board of trade (CBOT) futures have softened in wake of Octobers USDA’s WASDE report. The report set to come out Thursday night is expected to increase the estimated production yields for Corn and Soybeans in the US, Wheat futures also took a considerable hit over night. Here at home, prices have continued their slight fluctuation in regards to the report and weather conditions being faced across Australia’s grain growing regions. Feed Wheat for January 2018 has come off throughout the week at the $325 mark with prompt deliver for old crop at $320. As much as we have raved on about the wet weather conditions across NNSW and the Darling downs, it is honestly a nice change to be able to ramble on about some solid rain. This rain being faced across a large portion of the prime summer crop growing areas has enticed many to put a wealth of Sorghum in this coming season. Having said that, many prime sorghum growing areas require more rain still to see a big plant. As the sorghum market has softened slightly domestically, prices delivered in to the Downs for October are at the $305 mark and $315 in to Brisbane, January bids are $270 onto the Downs. Feed Barley continues its demand mainly for livestock and is priced at around $310 for October & $320 for January in to the Darling Downs. Over the past twelve months from the beginning of harvest 2016/17 to where we sit now, there has been quite a fluctuation and increase in pricing across the board. APW1 over the past year has jumped up $110/mt delivered downs and up $95/mt on a Newcastle NTP price out of Moree GrainCorp, feed Barley was nearly identical as well up $120/mt Downs and $124/mt Newcastle track. Faba Bean market still remains illiquid and is playing alongside the new crop coming off currently. Ex-Farm prices are at $255-60 subject to location around the North West and plains, with recent new crop No. 1 quality at $300 and No.2 at $280 delivered Narrabri.

Chickpeas didn’t seem too phased by the downpours across central Queensland last week, no current news on the harvest really being affected either. Further south the rain should really kick along the later planted peas to give them a final boost before seasons end. Delivery for 2017/18 crop prices in to the Gladstone and Mackay port zones are softer at $865/mt for October only delivery and for Narrabri prices for October/November are around the $810 mark (at time of writing). We have witnessed a decline in prices due to a lack of export demand, harvest selling pressure in CQLD, & an increased planted area for the Sub-Continent new crop. On a smaller not Canola new crop prices Ex-Farm around Narrabri and Moree are pricing at $525 for October and $560 for January, this would be for a flat oil and admix with a minimum of 38 oil.

On the Inter-continental Exchange (ICE), Cotton futures have been trading a little higher than previously, as stated above the factors impacting are the WASDE report and the rain path from Hurricane Nate. As the area has been under duress from the recent hurricanes over the past month, this may be taken in to account for this week’s estimates. Pre weather conditions (Hurricanes) the WASDE reported increased production for US Cotton so it will be interesting to see how the market reacts, Stay tuned!! Bale prices are have been on the rise over the past week due to the sense of uncertainty on yields and quality abroad. 2018 cotton has shown a nice change hitting the $500 and 2019 cotton just below at the $475 mark. We still advocate 2018 sales if the bid has a “5” in front of it! The Aussie dollar had a rally overnight and sits at just below the $0.781 mark (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 05/10/2017

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Fact of the Day – According to the USDA, Super Bowl Sunday is second highest day of food consumption in the United States, after Thanksgiving.

It seems the Labour Day long weekend has taken an hour from New South Wales but given Queensland a substantial fall of rain. Starting with NNSW working north, East of Moree had fallings of 40mm, Croppa Creek and North Star received up to 55mm and Boggabilla to Goondiwindi just on the 60mm mark.

Looking at Central Queensland’s latest downpours, they have experienced upwards of 65mm around Emerald and 40mm just south in Roma. These amounts of rain across the eastern states brings a positive change to conditions for summer crops to be planted such as Sorghum (that didn’t seem as likely last week) and Cotton, and in a sense a boost of morale, though not so much in regards to the season ahead that is already dawning upon us. Stateside rain is predicted to fall through the Midwest over the upcoming week which will postpone plantings and furthering their moisture levels.

At the end of last week the market came off slightly in preparation for the forecasted rains. As of the new week, the market has regathered itself with spot prices remaining firm with the rain not falling on most of the key growing areas across north western NSW and the Eastern parts of the Darling Downs. New crop feed Wheat for January delivered in to the Downs is $345 with current crop for October delivery at $340/mt. Barley and Sorghum continue to be much more prevalent across the board within the domestic market. Feed Barley delivered Downs for 16/17 season sits lower after recent weather conditions today at $330, with 17/18 crop for January delivery Downs priced just lower at $335. Sorghum continues at just over the $305 mark for an October delivery period in to the Darling Downs with no carry costs with Newcastle showing a delivered price of roughly $285. Faba Bean demand as previously mentioned is there due to the dry months being faced across the region, though the market can still be quite illiquid at intervals with low activity and fewer buyers from time to time. Ex-Farm prices are at $265 subject to location around the North West and plains.

As we mentioned above with the downpours faced across NNSW and QLD, the impact it may cause to current harvesting in CQ is still unknown. The rain, and how heavy it may have been across the state can cause chickpea crops to lay down from the added weight, knock the peas out of their pods and also bring on other substantial quality issues (splits and regrowth) which could cost growers yields and dollars. Impacts such as these can be quite substantial to the grower especially with the already difficult task of stripping peas throughout the warmer months. For growers with already laying down Chickpea crops, it is best to get them off the paddock as soon as possible. Delivery for new crop prices in to the Gladstone and Mackay port zones are softer at $895/mt and for the Darling Downs, prices for October are at around the $890 mark (at time of writing). The risk again of hoarding on to tonnages is that if overseas yield well, it forces Australian growers to carry into the next year and playing the price game.

The Cotton futures market finished a little lower yesterday. As stated previously, the market continues firm with little activity to its position as inventory is yet to be done on hurricane damage caused back in September on US Cotton fields. Bale prices are practically unmoved this week with 2018 cotton at $485 and 2019 cotton just below at the $470 mark. The Aussie dollar dropped just a fraction shorter as the Reserve Bank of Australia did not decide to change the current interest rate of 1.5% the dollar today sits at just below the $0.783 mark (at time of writing).

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