AgVantage Commodities Market Report 21/12/2017

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Fact of the Day – Mariah Carey is thought to earn royalties of around $660,000 every year from her hit ‘All I Want For Christmas Is You’, the song was announced as the most-streamed Christmas song of all time.

As summer crops struggle this week with the mercury hitting 44 degrees in parts across the North West, we look to the New Year and what weather is forecasted ahead. In saying that there is nothing too promising on the horizon for now which can and will detrimentally impact plant progression and top soil moisture if there is no follow up rain in early January. With a brief look in to the US, their crop looks to be under some pressure as well with the winter showing its true colours and a cold snap on its way, though this doesn’t look to have too much of an impact on their export schedule. However it could definitely wreak havoc on the current crops that are in their early development stages.

Feed Wheat continues its strength due to the lack of supply around the main growing regions due to majority of grain stripped going in to the protein export market. Feed What for January delivered in to the downs still remains firm at $325 with Barley narrowly following at $320. Continued demand for old crop Sorghum also is there, though all eyes are on the state that new season is in and how it will fair heading in to 2018 after the recent heat. Sorghum for March/April delivery is bid at $270 for the Darling downs and ten dollars more in to Brisbane. Faba Beans will still be sought after heading in to next year for domestic interest with prices for now at $255-65 depending on location. Chickpeas…. nothing to report on much like the past few weeks, prices in to Narrabri sit at $650-60. Will not drag on about them as do not want to end the year on a sour note.

The Cotton futures market has held its own since the WASDE report last week and has been flirting closely with how the Australian dollar has been moving as of late. 2018 bale prices have dropped by a few dollars since the weekend and has seemed to have settled today at $550 per bale with 2019 crop at $520 (At time of writing). The Aussie dollar since Saturday has made sudden gains and today opened at $0.766.

From all of us at AgVantage Commodities, we wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 14/12/2017

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Fact of the Day – Though Santa Claus has worn blue and white and green in the past, his traditional red suit came from a 1930s ad by Coca Cola.

Once again we returned to the other end of the weather spectrum this week with the North West and Southern Downs facing above average temperatures for the next 5-10 days. With the mercury set to peak at thirty eight degrees in parts this week, it is not all bad as this warm streak gives growers a chance to really clean up the last few hectares of winter crop before the Christmas period. After this heat wave flows through a follow up rain event would be almost be too good to be true to rejuvenate top soil moisture for the in ground Sorghum and Cotton, though there is nothing to positive on the horizon for now. The WASDE report was released late Tuesday evening and there were a few alterations to the market but nothing that appeared too drastic. The report relayed a rise in global Wheat stocks by around a million tonnes mainly due to the bumper Canadian season anticipated, whereas Australian production levels remained the same at just over twenty one million tonnes.

As 2018 gets closer and the assumption of a cool December disappears, the market is closely watching the next few month’s weather forecasts. Whilst harvest seems to be wrapped up before Christmas, New Year demand is still thriving, especially in regards to feed Wheat and Barley. Feed What for January delivery in to the downs still remains firm at $325 with Barley closely following at $320, the demand is there with a large amount of ex-farm interest too. Faba demand continues as previously stated, buyers are chasing tonnages for January through to March though prices are subject to change depending location. For December seeing bids at the $255-60 level.

Chickpeas, the market has strengthened by a small amount in the last week on the back of some Bangladeshi demand, though whilst that has now subsided, all eyes still remain on Pakistan and the Sub Continent’s demand levels leading in to 2018. Looking to the Indian crop, it is reportedly much bigger than first expected. When looking to last year we saw a thriving demand, though now there is a minimum of buyer demand alongside low grower supply. The Indians are relaying that next year’s season will be quite fruitful and predict a 20-30% jump in planted hectares. Prices have rallied to $720 delivered Darling Downs and $700 in to receival sites in Narrabri for December and first half January.

Cotton continues its firm position on the futures market with very little change projected, even though we don’t see the market dropping away and softening, we also don’t expect any large gains either. Production levels forecasted for bales have increased by 25% just on last year. There was an upsurge in America’s exports of up to three hundred thousand bales which in return has shown a lower estimates for world supplies. US stocks were put down by 200,000 this month down to 5.8 million bales, though this is still more than double of last year’s levels. For prices in to the New Year, there has been only a slight fluctuation over the past fortnight. 2018 bale prices have just had a small rally towards the middle of the week and bid at $545 per bale with 2019 at $520 (At time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 7/12/2017

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Fact of the Day – The historic Ashes urn is too fragile to travel, it’s usually kept on display at the MCC Museum at Lord’s. It has only been taken to Australia twice since 1929 – firstly for the 1988 Australian Bicentenary celebrations and then as part of an MCC-organised touring exhibition, which took place from October 2006 to January 2007.

Heavy rains peppered the North West over the weekend with drops of up to three inches recorded for some growers with most seeming to average around 25-50mm. Seems we have now gone from one end of the spectrum to the other in the space of three months regarding weather conditions. You never wish away the rain though with there still peas to be stripped, the remainder of the year is not looking too promising for most in this very predicament. Looking to summer, we couldn’t have asked for a more pleasing start to the season with most growers trying to get in as much Sorghum, Cotton and amounts of Mungbeans in the ground across the Liverpool Plains, North West and Southern Downs.

With generally wet and mild temperatures forecasted for December, we expect feed Wheat prices to remain firm with demand steady as the market looks to the SNSW and Victorian crop conditions after the weekend’s rain. Pricing remains pretty well unchanged moving in to the New Year, though the market has just softened due to the heavy southern rains. Feed Wheat came back five dollars for January delivery in to the Downs to $320 with some room for carry from March to April. Old crop Sorghum still remains to be in demand as buyers are looking to acquire tonnages before the 17/18 season comes off next year. New crop prices remain strong even with the recent weather across the planted regions at $260 for Downs delivery. Faba Beans are heating up for domestic demand as buyers are looking for prompt and New Year tonnes. With the amount remaining on farms from the previous season we should see pricing increase by a small amount for the short term, prices still remain at the $255 ex-farm level depending on location.

Chickpeas once again, no solid news to comment on this week unfortunately. With prices still fluctuating just under the $700 mark around the Darling Downs and Narrabri areas, there is no sign of the tariff that caused all these problems being imposed on Chickpeas, though the market has already been affected quite substantially over the past month due to the uncertainty and speculation. We expect to see some positive news looking to 2018.

Cotton continues its moderate strength this week with not too much variation in the futures market. The ABARES has just released its forecast for next season and has reported a small increased level of production provided by the reassuring weather seen across the prime growing regions. The WASDE report is due out next week so reports on a global scale will be interesting to see how this could affect the market, a smaller production estimate could really strengthen the futures market, stay tuned!! 2018 bale prices have just come back a little this week and are bid at the $540 mark with 2019 at $520 (At time of writing). The Aussie dollar rallied yesterday by a small amount but returned back to the $0.76 level at markets open today.

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