AgVantage Commodities Market Report 19/4/2018

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Fact of the Day – We have only explored less than 5 percent of the Earth’s oceans, In fact, we have better maps of Mars than we do of the ocean floor. About 71 percent of the Earth’s surface is water-covered, and the oceans hold about 96.5 percent of all Earth’s water.

Hail came through in scatters along with steady showers over the weekend and that was all except for some areas just south of the border which received upwards of an inch. Rain now hasn’t been substantial for the majority of the North West and Southern Downs this year and the warm days still have lingered longer than anyone wanted or expected. As planting is looming with some growers already getting started, the same mentality remains to “get it in the ground and ask questions about the forecast later”. Marketing of grain is on the back burner for now as prices are firm and most producers having more pressing agendas taking the wheel in picking, planting and spraying. The Aussie starts today a little over $0.776 with most currencies opening unchanged since the weeks start.

Market Prices

Sorghum 1

Sorghum 2

SFW1

Chickpea #1

Del Brisbane

$360 J/J

$330 J/J

POA

Del Downs

$345 J/J

$315 J/J

$356 J/J

$610 A/M

Del Narrabri

$325 A/M

$300 A/M

$310 XF A/M

$600 A/M

Del Newcastle

$350 M/J

POA

As mentioned last week too, with planting soon to be fully underway, pricing for the 2018/19 season ahead is becoming clearer with increased interest by the day, especially in pulses. Chickpeas delivered in to the Darling Downs market zone are looking at a rough price of $535/mt which has climbed over the past 10-12 days turning a few more heads leading in to the winter crop plant. Chickpeas remain firm for current crop with market shorts surfacing but also not looking to get any more exciting as Pakistan is the only interested buyer at this point in time. Faba Beans are unchanged for the ex-farm market with prices set at $320 Goondiwindi, $310 Moree and $310 Narrabri for #2s or better quality. Old crop still is soaring with graziers buying by the load to keep sheep and cattle at bay, though for larger tonnes, traders are pricing $310 XF subject to location and enquiry.

Many reports coming out of the paddock on Cotton picking show growers are having a better season on yield than last year. Even though quality is still uncertain as the gins are only just getting in to full motion along with the classing, watch this space as the season progresses across the state. The futures dropped ever so slightly to start the week with a five dollar drop on 2018 cotton, now standing at $575/bale, 2019 $560 and 2020 at $530.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 12/4/2018

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Fact of the Day – Our most successful Commonwealth Games was in 2006 (Melbourne), at which the athletes won 221 medals (84 gold, 69 silver and 68 bronze). At the last Games in Glasgow, we won 137 medals (49 gold, 42 silver and 46 bronze). As the host nation, the 2018 team will be eager to break their 2006 record with already a whopping 52 gold’s on day 7.

Temperatures are forecasted to drop below the ten degree mark throughout next week, even though this will give some respite for the area, without any rain there is still not much of a positive outlook heading in to this year’s winter crop plant and soil readiness. The USDA WASDE report was also released this week but with little to touch on, the market stayed considerably placid. Although world production and stocks are up, the dryness being faced by the southern growing areas is taking its toll as the other concern is the cool and wet conditions experienced in the northern parts of the United States as well. As the trade war continues its streak with China imposing tariffs across a substantial amount of industries, it has also has played a substantial role in stressing out the Aussie dollar. The Aussie starts today a little over $0.775. Our currency is not the only one being impacted with the Russian Rouble also taking a hit due to ongoing sanctions also relating to trading and investment.

Market Prices

Sorghum 1

Sorghum 2

SFW1

Chickpea #1

Del Brisbane

$350 A/M

$325 A/M

POA

Del Downs

$335 M/J

$305 A/M

$345 A/M

$610 A/M

Del Narrabri

$315 A/M

$290 A/M

$300 XF A/M

$600 A/M

Del Newcastle

$340 A/M

POA

Sorghum has taken a substantial climb this week with prices rallying up about ten dollars mainly due to market shorts around the area for domestic and export use. The same can be said for feed wheat with the dry weather looking to flow right in to winter, the demand from graziers and feedlots is still very strong showing no signs of a backward step anytime soon. Across the board there has been raised interest in 2018/19 season crop with buyers testing the waters for Chickpeas, feed Wheat, Barley and Faba Beans (XF at $320 Goondiwindi, $310 Moree and $310 Narrabri). Chickpeas rallied yesterday with prices in to Narrabri and the Downs up $20-25 for delivered, ex-farm and in the system stock. Market shorts and small buying demand overseas can be seen as the main influencers, though as the harvest is almost complete abroad, with Ramadan (religious fasting month) from May to June we may not see the interest spiked till the next financial year.

Cotton picking is faring quite well thus far, with modules and round bales accumulating across ginning yards day by day. Most Gins are getting in to the motion with classing of first bales soon to be underway. Bale prices remain unchanged from last week with 2018 at $583, 2019 $562 and 2020 at $530. In regards to the crop stateside (US), the timeframe for planting is closing as the dry conditions look to stretch in to the later stages of this month. Production may impress in other regions but for now the prime growing area of Texas looks set to struggle for now.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 05/4/2018

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Fact of the Day – On April fool’s day, 1976, the BBC convinced many listeners that a special alignment of the planets would temporarily decrease gravity on earth. Phone lines were flooded with callers who claimed they felt the effects.

Back and refreshed from a long weekend, the days are shorter and the feel of winter is already starting to set in, except for the heat that remains to linger around longer than anticipated. Rain is a subject not needed to be touched on in depth, by now we have all come to terms that ‘you have to see it to believe it’. Picking is in motion with bales and modules being laid across the country side as winter crop planting is also on the move with most growers taking on the mentality of ‘plant now and ask questions (about the rain) later’. News on the international scale has been quite telling this week in regards to faults and conditions wreaking havoc on the season ahead. US winter wheat is struggling quite immensely, although there has been rain for some, majority of the prime growing areas have been devastatingly dry. Looking over to Eastern Europe, the freezing weather has impacted the start of planting, though there doesn’t seem to be too much worry for now with expectations of another prosperous season for the former soviet nations. The Australian Dollar is less than a half‑cent above this year’s lows. The Aussie starts today a little over $0.767.

Market Prices

Sorghum 1

Sorghum 2

SFW1

Chickpea #1

Del Brisbane

$340 A/M

$315 A/M

POA

Del Downs

$326 J/J/A

$303 A/M

$338 A/M

$580 A/M

Del Narrabri

$312 A/M

$287 A/M

$297 XF A/M

$555 A/M

Del Newcastle

$335 A/M

POA

As touched on before, the trade war between the US and China is a little less heated compared to this time last week though it is still playing its role in the current markets. Wheat, Barley, Sorghum and Fabas are all very much where we left them before the break with really minimal change as prices continue firm with no signs of backing off. Fabas are still sought after but for a longer spread at $300 XF for June/July/August depending location and subject to enquiry. Though increased interest for new crop Fabas are looking promising with #2’s or better priced XF at $320 Goondiwindi, $310 Moree and $310 Narrabri. Chickpeas still continue their below par levels as overseas harvests still continue and look quite impressive.

The pickers are now sporadically in the paddock from the Gunnedah region all the way west to Bourke and up in to southern Queensland. The relentless heat since the start of the year has brought an earlier start, with majority of crops being defoliated over the past month. Feedback from the ‘Gins’ across the region mostly tell us that the next two weeks is when they plan on kicking it all in to gear with bales already being delivered at a steady pace over the Easter break. Bale prices are slightly up on last week again, predominantly on the next two seasons to follow with 2018 at $582, 2019 $562 and 2020 at $532 (at time of writing).

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