AgVantage Commodities Market Report 18/04/2019

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Fact of the Day – On Monday Tiger Woods won his 5th green jacket at the US Masters in Augusta. This victory comes 14 years after his last and 4th Masters triumph, with Woods battling both on and off the course issues over the last decade. With this win, Tiger confirmed again he is one of the best to ever play the game, along with earning one of the greatest ever comebacks in sports history.

No rain for April has arrived yet, with the forecast not predicting any falls till at least mid to late May. The current conditions around the region are still extremely poor, though some growers were lucky enough to get in some seed off the back of recent rain we had in late March. For now the temperatures have cooled as we approach Easter, though the dire need for more moisture could not be more emphasised in regards to the upcoming winter season. Abroad, eastern European countries are holding up the global supply for now, as US planting schedules seem to be significantly behind the pace of previous seasons. The next 6 months look to be quite tough regardless of what hemisphere you are based, though for the Australian east coast, it’s the fact that one bad season has now come off the back of at least 3-5 bad seasons.

On the pulse front, there is no real news heading at least out until about  June, though this could also stretch even further throughout the year. With India doing their own thing, the global demand is just not high enough to warrant pricing for Chickpeas here at home to lift. For now delivered prices sit indicatively at $630/mt for Wee Waa/Goondi for 18/19 crop, and a discount of $40/mt less for 17/18 peas. The main point to take from this is that at least bids and market interest is becoming a little more frequent once again. Feed grains continue to stay firm with demand not slowing down heading in to continued dry times.

 Cotton futures fell sharply on Friday, but since have been making good head way back to the previous levels we have seen the last month. There is still the continued uncertainty of what is occurring abroad via trade deals, though here at home, bale quality is slipping quite a bit considering the harsh season faced by all. Bale prices today have jumped nicely for current and seasons ahead, 2019 $6302020 $600 and 2021 $550 (at time of writing).

 

Have a nice Easter break

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 12/04/2019

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Fact of the Day: It took Apollo 11, that’s the spaceship that carried Neil Armstrong, Michael Collins and Buzz Aldrin to the moon in 1969, 4 days 6 hours and 45 minutes to get to the moon. 

March ended with more rain than first expected, though this month isn’t looking too promising in the precipitation department. Border regions again look to have a great starting point for the season ahead, though the optimism begins to fade the more south you travel. As the dry winter looms, more and more vessels are landing as well as en route to the east coast from the west to relieve the northern and southern market zones in need of suppl. Newcastle and Brisbane ports are taking in bulk loads of barley and feed wheat, along with other protein meals and feed supplements also being stock piled. Pulses have struck some interest on the buying side with reports of the odd order heading abroad; though for now, prices remain too dismal for both old and new crop for growers to think about selling. Where the market is moving now is harder to read than first anticipated, but as long as India is out of the market, it gives Australian peas very little wiggle room to be exported to the international market.

Cotton has kept its positivity in regards to bale prices this week with merchant bids exceeding the $640 level. The main contributing factors still remain as the US – China trade talks and weather concerns across prime growing areas here at home and abroad. The trade negotiations appear to be making traction, though it seems neither side knows exactly what is going on or where they stand, hence the constant push back of an end date (now from March out to June). Last year the main point was that China would import a large degree of agri-commodities as part of the trade deal, though this is yet to fully blossom.  On Tuesday the US futures had a slight tumble which forces July contracts much lower, this in return is where we have watched physical cotton bales priced $10 lower than where they stood Monday. Prices today are priced at 2019 $630, 2020 $610 and 2021 at $550. The AUD opened today at $0.713 with little change from earlier in the week.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 5/04/2019

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Another great fall came across NNSW and SQ over the weekend. Falls ranged from 25-125mm depending on location. The massive drops seem to be scattered around the Liverpool plains, though the sheer amount was too much to quick to gain the most benefit of the soaking. Narrabri and surroundings ranged between 45-60 which is a nice buffer on the back of recent falls, though there will need to be some severe follow up to move in a positive direction. The border regions have been the most profitable out of March/April rain, with Goondiwindi and close by areas having received about 6-8 inches over the last fortnight, this gives the area a fantastic start to what still looks like a considerably dry winter. None the less, it is a starting platform for the season ahead and a nice change of scenery if anything.

Feed grain prices softened after the recent rain, though by not much as there is still high demand for the months out till the next winter crop is harvested. Chickpea bids have surfaced here and there, but mainly for 17/18 crop, and prices are not at all appealing enough to comprehend.

Cotton, along with the rain have been the good news stories over the last week to ten days. Futures have held their own, and with demand creeping up due to a significantly smaller Australian season, prices are comfortably at the $630 level. Bale prices today have jumped nicely for current and seasons ahead, 2019 $632, 2020 $610 and 2021 $550 (at time of writing).

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