AgVantage Commodities Market Report 23/05/2019

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The US and China continue their back and forward, and frankly the rest of the world is growing very tired of it all. Even though there’s very important topics at hand, such as national security, there needs to be some accountability for a  more prompt fix in the coming weeks rather than months. The election here at home saw the Liberals hold on to government, which doesn’t change too much for now. Though we can hope that the government will continue to alleviate pressure on those in rural and remote areas, if not by even more as not much has changed.

On the domestic grains front, demand is still high for feed, yet no real change on the market side. Protein meals, soybean hulls and PKE continue to be sought after to keep nutrition levels up among herds. Sorghum has found recent gains, up about $10-15 in the last week which brought a few tonnes around the area forward. New crop prices have started to trickle out the last few days, though it is still early, especially when taking in to account what has been received and what is forecasted rain wise.

Chickpea market is fluttering but still not much activity to get everyone talking. There is demand regardless, especially if growers were looking to leak a few loads out before the end of financial year.

Cotton has made modest gains, yet still at the sub $600 level for the 2019 season. Most growers have finished stripping or are coming very close to the end, of what has been a tough summer crop right off the back of a tougher winter crop.

 

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 16/05/2019

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Fact of the Day – Forty years ago, Apollo 14 astronauts Alan Shepard and Edgar Mitchell took an entirely different kind of “giant leap for mankind,” playing sports on the lunar surface. Shepard famously hit golf balls with a modified six-iron, and Mitchell threw a javelin.

Planting has been the word of the week, growers are looking to take advantage of recent moisture around the area, as well as what’s forecasted for the remainder of the month. For some on the Liverpool Plains, they have received quite the abundance of the rain in recent months, this gives them a considerable cushion to get seed in the ground and hold on through what is predicted to be another dry winter. Further north around the Narrabri and Moree area, planting continues, though there needs to be a considerable amount of rain fall to build on the scattered showers from the last few weeks. Stateside, the winter crop looks to be underway with growth starting to head, but still not promising looking back over recent seasons. How their spring eventuates is critical to the development of their planted hectares and if some positive news can come from their already lacklustre 2018.

Chickpeas have had some movement this week, though this is purely on the back of our dollar taking a hit due to the top dogs playing hard ball. Demand is still low across the globe, especially now during Ramadan. Though with a slight drop in the AUD, we have seen bids eventuate, it isn’t exciting news, but at least there is some activity in the market. How the next few months play out it is hard to say, though with current intel, it looks like a slow boat ride in to 2020.

Chickpea #1 Market

2017/2018

2018/2019

Darling Downs (Delivered)

$640

$680

Goondiwindi Warehousing

$620

$660

Narrabri (Delivered)

$645

$685

Bengalala Warehousing

$620

$660

Cotton has taken more than a tumble this week, predominantly at the twittering thumbs of President Trump. The two super powers have gone back and forward over the last week throwing higher tariffs round like a frisbee, and looking back, there has been no real change from where this stood at the end of 2018. Regardless of the two leaders seeing who can beat their chest more, they still have let the world know both sides plan to reach an agreement, and this looks to continue with their talks this week in Osaka, and the G20 summit next month. Politics and trade aside, 2019 bale prices at home have still dropped by $60/bale in the last fortnight. Timing could have been worse, luckily majority of growers have already contracted their balance, but it is still a worrying sign if this war continues. Bale prices have reflected cotton falling off a cliff for both current and seasons ahead. 2019 $5702020 $560 and 2021 $510 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 9/05/2019

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Fact of the Day – Dalmatians are perhaps best known for their role as fire-fighting apparatus escorts and firehouse mascots. Since Dalmatians and horses are very compatible, the dogs were easily trained to run in front of the carriages to help clear a path and quickly guide the horses and firefighters to the fires.

The last week has been one of the more positive weeks the region has faced in recent months. The weekend brought moderate to heavy rainfall, along with a welcomed cold snap (safe to say the 6-month long season of summer is behind us). Temperatures since the recent rains have not exceeded 25 degrees, with the nights dropping well in to single digits also. Across NNSW, the Liverpool plains received 40-60mm, Narrabri to Moree 25-50mm and the western areas of Walgett and Bourke enjoying 30-55mm. As stated in last weeks comment, “there are many banking on this (rain) with growers planting furiously over the last few days”, this rain could not have been timelier for a positive foundation. Now, we just need the cooler temperatures and heavier falls to continue over the next 3-4 months for a season we are reasonably content with. New crop (19/20) prices are bid at $335/mt for SFW1 and $330 for F1 delivered Darling Downs Jan/Feb. Chickpeas continue their break from making headlines.

On a trade point of view, President Trump is not doing us any favours in the way his negotiating methods are being taken by China. His recent Tweets on new import tariffs have not fallen kindly on China’s ears, and they have retaliated by cutting this weeks talks short and slowing the process down even more. As CBA’s commodities expert Tobin Gorey said, “Both cannot hope to get by without the other”, therefore a deal is vital, but the timeframe is anything but. Bale prices have reflected this trade news this week and today have again softened for current cotton and seasons ahead, 2019 $6002020 $595 and 2021 $550 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 2/05/2019

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Fact of the Day – Hummingbirds are incredible flyers, the ruby-throated hummingbird beating its wings 80 times every second. These tiny birds can fly forwards, hover, and are the only known birds to fly backwards as well.

Scattered showers arrived early Wednesday morning across the North West region, though it was only enough to dampen the footpath. The day most are watching is Friday, there is forecasted rain of around 15-30mm, and there are many banking on this with growers planting over the last few days. Although very minimal and nowhere near enough, it will still add to previous weather received over late March and April. In international news, without sounding like a broken record, officials in the US still suggest China talks are going well. Although they continue to be pushed further and further down the calendar, the impatience of both parties is continuing to heighten, along with bluffs of just ceasing negotiations immediately. The AUD stands at $0.705, it has been steady on the back of the reserve bank’s recent predictions and as well the upcoming Federal Election.

Chickpea bids have emerged after another long hiatus, though buying interest is still only very minimal, and prices are nowhere near growers current targets. 17/18 crop sits at $660 on the Downs and $640 in the Namoi sites, where 18/19 season is bid at a $60/mt premium. This grabs some attention, though still after this long of storing peas, sellers are much more inclined to keep holding until the market cracks with any promising activity… (not looking to be anytime soon). Feed markets have softened over the past few weeks. With Wheat, Barley and Sorghum staying all relative, prices have lulled by about $10-12/mt. There still remains a certain amount of stock around on the west coast, though if they also do not receive any rain ahead of this winter crop, stocks will again become extremely tight and pricey heading in to 2020. Nothing too exciting on the cotton front, futures have sightly slipped away this week as trade talks continue to become more and more spread out. Bale prices today have jumped nicely for current and seasons ahead, 2019$6252020 $606 and 2021 $555 (at time of writing).

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