AgVantage Commodities Market Report 11/07/2019

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Fact of the Day – Elephants are the only land mammals that cannot jump. Unlike all other mammals on earth, Elephants do not have kneecaps. Therefore, they are unable to bend their legs and acquire the needed propulsion to leave the ground.

With welcomed falls scattered across the eastern states, we look to July and August forecasts to understand what can keep the already struggling season going. Throughout the Central West up to Southern Queensland, the falls didn’t vary much over the 20mm mark, most receiving between 5-15mm over Monday. SA and Victoria did not experience much moisture, though over in the west, they had significant falls to keep crop development more that rampant. Overseas, the US markets have been fairly subdued across the board, mainly due to a slow end to last week with their public holiday, and very steady trading to start this week. The USDA report is due out this week, it looks to say much of the same regarding good to excellent seasons thus far in Europe and Russia, as well as improved conditions across the prime growing US states.

Chickpea supply and demand remains very quiet and looks to continue this way in to 2020 if not longer, unless India does a complete backflip on their tariffs (we have more chance of winning the cricket). Hay/Straw continues to be sought after, but at this stage you have more chance of getting rain than finding any roughage about. The feed grain markets will continue to focus on what is happening in the south and west, as the easts stockpiles continue to be carted in land week after week, month after month.

Cotton has been dismal the last 3 months to say the least, and this week really hasn’t been too different with sharp losses. “The immediate cause, or maybe merely a catalyst, was perhaps a tropical disturbance that might possibly deliver some rain to dry Texas cotton regions.  Weather forecasters are wary because that is just one possible path among many for a disturbance that is yet to gather into a storm (or worse)” (CBA, 2019). Updated USDA reports also will help give the market a better perspective on global production. Bale prices today are bid for 2019 at $537, 2020 $555 and 2021 $525.

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