Wheat futures continued their recovery last night after the sell off following the USDA quarterly stocks report prior to Easter, largely due to ongoing speculation surrounding Chinese demand for US supplies as well as cold weather moving through the US Great Plains in the coming days that could impact the winter wheat crop. Wheat closed +14c, corn +4c, beans +15c, canola +$7, crude +0.1%, the Dow +0.3% and the AUD at 1.0412. Wheat prices have now gained 50c from the lows after the USDA stocks report as demand in the export sector climbs. The latest reports have suggested China ordered 14 to 16 cargoes of US wheat last week for mid-late 2013, but some continue to suggest this figure could be higher. Temperatures are forecast to plummet through the HRW region of the US over the next couple of days as another storm pushes through. Heavy rains are forecast to hit the mid-south and Midwest as well, delaying any early corn planting progress. Weekly crop ratings pegged the US winter wheat crop at 36% good-excellent, a 2% rise from last week, while the poor-very poor rating remained at 30%. Corn has certainly not seen the gains experienced in the wheat sector over the past week, and as such should be finding more demand into US feed rations at the moment – there had just better be the extra stocks the USDA found in their last report. The monthly WASDE report on Wednesday is expected to reflect the larger than expected quarterly stocks report, with 12/13 US carry-out stocks forecast to rise in wheat, corn and beans.
Last week, cotton finished a little weaker with the market looking towards a 10.5 Million acre US planting. Unlike previous weeks, fundamentals have created bearish sentiment. US Weekly export sales were bearish, weak US employment data out last Friday raised concern the economy may be slowing. Mill demand slowed after higher prices, polyester fibre prices in China weakened, and a rapid decline in corn prices had traders conclude that the planted cotton area will likely increase. Most valleys are trading between A$435-$440/ bale range but did reach a high of $445 through the week. Mill demand remains weak, with mills taking last week’s decline in NY futures to fix on call contracts. The spread from May to July of 185 points is considered to be full carry, indicating no immediate demand for cotton lint.
Domestically sorghum and wheat continue to firm. Please be reminded that mungbeans are firm on the back of reduced production in Australia -25Kmt this season vs 50Kmt last year. We are agents for Blue Ribbon Grain & Pulses who are the largest exporter of mungbeans out of Australia. They have informed us that they do not want to miss any mungbeans, so please bring us through any reasonable offers you have as we believe we will get them booked for you.