Harvest has kicked off, albeit only early crops in the northern areas, but it has started. Because the start to the season was so different for many areas, we believe that harvest will be all over the shop as well. Wheat and barley prices have traded in a tight range over the past week, with no real direction from the corn or wheat futures market. A few wheat and barley shorts have arose, but buyers are not there for big tonnage knowing sellers of new crop will be just around the corner, we have genuine interest for wheat – min ASW for 200mt, indications $280 XF Moree prompt. Chicago wheat futures were up 9UScents for the December contract overnight due to the USDA quarterly stocks report showing about 1.5 million tonnes reduction in the trade forecast, which is quite significant at this point in time. Although there wasn’t a sharp rise as world stocks and production continue to outweigh production.
For prices to increase here domestically on the wheat, barley and sorghum we would have to see a dry summer, and by all reports that is what it is shaping up to be. Our basis is currently quite low compared to where it was 3 months ago, with futures down and domestic consumers sitting back as they wait to see how big the crop actually is. If sorghum plant is down compared to last year due to dry weather we could see feed grains spike here, and see our basis move back up.
Physical chickpea demand has picked up again this week, the futures market has moved higher and the low AUD is obviously helping, with slots now available for January it has taken the pressure off harvest delivery. Delivered packer price has been bid at anywhere from $755/mt to $780/mt in the north, with early peas at a premium. Track wheat has been bid at $292/mt with SFW XF for Jan pickup bid at $255-60/mt XF Narrabri – which shows a good selling opportunity. New crop sorghum has traded at $240/mt XF Narrabri this week, with barley the poor cousin of both with bids around $210-5 XF with no real interest at the moment. APH1 del packer is also trading at a premium over APW multigrades in the system.