Wheat futures have encountered their heaviest decline in 20 years recently, falling in 17 of the previous 18 sessions. You wouldn’t know given the strength in domestic prices here, which have been supported through strong basis levels. Last night futures went against their downward spiral and closed 2 cents higher on the July contract. Corn closed down 2 cents and settled at 456.25 cents/bushel. New crop wheat values have seen some heavy decline in the past few days. Current levels are $285-290XF Moree through to the border for 70/10 and although these have fallen from last week’s levels of $300-310XF, it still represents a good sell for anyone comfortable committing production as basis levels are still historically at strong levels. A lot of growers are telling us that another fall of rain would give them enough comfort to lock in some production. Another fall of rain would also be likely to push prices lower as basis would soften and we would see selling pressure if everyone was trying to sell at the same time.
With good rains received in the Central West over the weekend, sellers of new crop have emerged. We have competitive prices in the Central West and we urge growers to keep in mind that most buyers are pricing of a site-based value rather than generic track price. Today values are around $316/mt track Newcastle.
Old crop barley demand is very thin with consumers continuing to prefer wheat in rations. New crop barley is priced around $290/mt delivered Downs, which equates to $250-260XF Moree through to the border region. Track Brisbane values are $283/mt with little selling interest.
Sorghum prices on a track basis are $300 Newcastle today and $304 Brisbane. For any growers off the LPP with SSOR in the system, there aren’t a lot of buyers for this grade at present but those that are willing to purchase are pricing off a delivered destination number, less freight, less in/out costs as they will execute by road rather than track basis. This equates to a $235-240/mt delivered site for LPP sites.
Old crop chickpea demand is still quite thin with values dropping over the course of the past week. Today, we would expect delivered Downs values to be $445-450/mt for July delivery. As a guide, we are seeing new crop peas bid at $465-470/mt delivered Downs.
Old crop fabas are difficult to move and we are still waiting on the winter demand to emerge from the Tablelands. We believe new crop markets to be $390+ XF north of Moree for No1 specs and up to $425-430/mt delivered Downs. Delivered Goondi and Narrabri is $400+ for No1 quality. We also have hectare contracts available on a delivered Downs basis.
Cotton overnight took a dive with the July contract down 128 points. Ecom’s demand for current pick is for June/July delivery only and today our bid is $474/bal