Wheat led the declines in commodity markets over night with December wheat futures finishing down 15 ¼ at 645 ¼ USc/b. Though there has been increased export interest, traders have been active with heavy profit taking in wheat vs corn spread prior to next week’s USDA S&D report. Analysts are estimating an increase in all winter wheat production by 100 million bushels to also be shown in Monday’s report. Corn finished slightly lower at 460 ½ USc/b reaching new lows, with good weather outlooks still proving bearish to the market. Yield estimates are also tipped to increase in next week’s report. Soybeans were down slightly, with the weather leaning towards a negative market direction. News that China may release 500,000MT onto the market and cheaper import supplies kept soybeans lower.
With cotton picking underway in the Rio Grande Valley, there is mixed views with regards to market direction in the cotton complex. Some regions are experiencing good growing conditions, with others behind expected maturity. The Dec contract is staying very close to the 85USc/lb with most traders waiting for real data to come from the USDA report next Monday. The December contract finished up slightly 22 points to 85.20USc/lb and the March contract up 28 points to 83.04USc/lb. The dollar continues to be a major player in Australian cash prices, with the AUD trading in under 90c for the past 4 sessions.
Domestically new crop sellers have been extremely active in the past week with on-farm SFW and 70/10-type contracts proving most popular. Price comparisons for these type of contracts can be broken down as follows; $258/mt site Goondi for APW, less $15-20/mt discount on a Multi-Grade contract for ASW, less $15/mt freight to site = $223/mt XF for ASW. A new crop SFW or 70/10 contract for similar location to above (Garah, south Goondi locations) would be around $244/mt XF and eliminating any grade risk by allowing higher screenings wheat to be delivered against this contract. In fact, you could still deliver H2 against the XF contract and it would be a similar price on-farm to a track Multi grad contract.
With so many growers selling in the past few weeks we are now starting to see harvest delivery periods fill and buyers are looking to price Jan/Feb movement now as Nov/Dec homes are being covered. We are still seeing an inverse in the market between old and new crop and although homes are still limited for old crop, at $265-277XF for August movement, this is well above new crop numbers and we recommend growers still sitting on old crop grain to contact us when looking for options to price. Most buyers are now moving to site-based pricing and northern sites are attracting a premium to generic track numbers. Weemelah site APW price works back to around a $300/mt Newcastle number whereas Narrabri equivalent is around $290/mt.