Hope you backed a winner yesterday, because the news this morning in the markets is largely negative. Wheat futures have continued a month-long slide and closed down another 7 USc/bu, leading most other ags down for the session. While there currently is export demand for US wheat, with Jordan and Egypt both issuing tenders, it appears US stocks have become uncompetitive. Russia is close to finishing its harvest with a considerable increase from last year’s poor performance, while the US Winter crop will head into dormancy in a decent position. The main potential for further movement in the market will be the release of the USDA report at the end of the week. Corn appears to have hit its bottom, with the better than expected US crop ensuring a large resurgence in ending stocks already taken its toll on futures, however given the absence of a WASDE report last month there remains the potential for a few surprises.
Locally, harvest is continuing further South, onto the Liverpool Plains and the Central West. The quality of the crop at this point has largely been higher protein, with some problems with screenings for some growers. With most of the crop now off around Moree, large quantities of this quality of grain moved directly into container markets as it was being harvested, with prices for high protein wheat softening over the last few weeks as a result of selling pressure and lack of offshore demand. Growers in the North are now looking at grades from ASW through to H2 being priced as straight 70/10 and making it’s way into feed markets, with only a $2-3/mt premium currently for APH2. 70/10 currently is around $270/mt ex farm around Moree. High protein stocks around Narrabri however are still finding the best value by being marketed into the packers in town. As a comparison, AUH2 wheat with protein around 13% would be delivered in to Narrabri at $275, the equivalent price for straight AUH2 in Narrabri Graincorp today would be $257. Delivered into the packers in Narrabri are also flexible on spreads, and can be picked up ex farm with prompt movement. We do have particular interest in any stocks of H2 on farm for movement in to Narrabri packers at a premium over what would be attainable in the system, however grain would have to be close to Narrabri or would feed into a 70/10 ration at similar numbers.
Of the other commodities coming off at the moment, canola prices have been holding around $500 track, and we still have homes available for growers who have held stocks on farm to be priced on a flat oil basis. With more crop coming off on the Liverpool Plains we have prompt demand for 70/10 wheat either ex farm or delivered into Tamworth. If this is of interest please bring an offer. We have the ability to handle high screenings in barley either delivered in to the system or stocks that are on farm. The pulse markets have been relatively quiet of late, with nothing exciting to report on chickpeas, prices being around $350 delivered in to Narrabri or $355 ex farm around the border. Please call the office with any pricing enquiries.