Futures closed higher again last night, for the 6th consecutive session. Mostly due to specs and funds closing out of short positions. There is still uncertainty over EU quality due to downgrading because of rain during harvest. This will put pressure onto Russia as they can fulfil this shortfall. The problem is the uncertainty over exports from Russia. The market believes that ultimately the demand for milling wheat will swing back to US wheat. This may also spill over into Aussie milling wheat demand. Although we saw a lift overnight, fundamentally, corn remains largely bearish and continues to weigh on the market.
The weather outlook for the coming weeks is unsettling as there doesn’t appear to be rain forecast. A lot of crops in the north are dependent on rain in the next two weeks before giving up. We will probably see a lot of stock on feed if there’s no rain in this two week window.
Locally, we have seen a small jump in wheat and barley for both old and new crop pricing. New crop Newcastle track MG has jumped from $300 earlier in the week to $305 today. Sorghum remains mostly unchanged.
Old crop 70/10 traded this week at $300XF in the north for September movement. We also have homes for Oct old crop wheat.
Chickpeas on-farm traded at $430XF for August pick-up at Garah earlier this week for old crop which is a strong price given current delivered Downs numbers of $445-450 for September.
New crop durum remains supported and prices are currently pushing $370/mt site at Bellata & Edgeroi for new crop DR1. Grower selling is pretty much non-existent.