It was a sea of red on the boards this morning following the 4th of July celebrations in the US. More sellers than buyers, with the bearish tone to the market only confirmed by the Weekly Crop Conditions Report which was released after the close. US wheat harvest is now more than half way completed, while the spring crop is sitting at 70% good to excellent. European and Russian harvests are also progressing, and the global balance sheet is set to grow with both reporting yields above expectation. Corn futures broke through the 400 USc/b market, but found some support from a substantial 1.08Mmt weekly export sale, but the sell off in wheat, and the forecast for at least 50% of the crop expected to pollinate in very favourable conditions kept the market at its’ lows. Soybeans followed wheat and corn, with the big move for beans last week, some consolidation at these levels should be expected ahead of the USDA World Supply and Demand report out Friday.
Locally, wheat prices have pushed slightly lower today and new crop track Newcastle (generic Ntl sites) is below $300/mt. NNSW sites attract a $15-20/mt premium, pricing off the Brisbane zone and Brisbane track today is just shy of $320/mt. We have some demand for high protein wheat (min 14%) on-farm and delivered Narrabri for prompt movement for anyone with remaining parcels on-farm.
We also have some enquiry for old crop chickpeas into Narrabri for July/August delivery. We have traded a number of parcels over the past two weeks .
The cotton market has continued its downward trend. More favourable weather across the US and an improving crop progress. Chinese production looks to be improving with favourable weather returning to Xingjian. The only bullish factor is the delay in the Indian monsoon, but even a total miss in Indian production would not adversely affect the world supply situation.
The Aussie dollar is continuing to hold the 0.93-0.94 level, indications continue to led towards improvements in the US economy, with the labour market now bubbling along like it did in the late 1990’s. No real local news to drive our currency either way.