The weekly export sales report out overnight should have been the kick the grains markets was looking for to change this continued bearish movement, but with the long awaited USDA report overshadowing the market, wheat and corn were rather subdued, while soybeans put in a bit of a rally.. Wheat traded within the previous sessions range, even after reports that the US has sold 70% of the 13/14 marketing years projected tonnage with another 427kmt of sales for the week. The corn market continues to sell tonnes, with an additional 1.178mmt of export sales booked, with the totals reaching 71.5% of the USDA’s marketing year projection. The USDA report out tonight is expected to increase yield to better than 159 bu/ac (almost 10t/ha), and the speculators have been jumping all over this holding a record net short position into the reports release tonight. Soybeans made some headway overnight, posting its highest close since the 31st of October, taking support from the 1.037mmt of weekly sales for whole beans, taking the yearly sales up to 89%. Good soymeal and oil sales also helped to give the market some reasonable support.
Yesterdays rally in the cotton market was short lived, with New York giving up 30-40 pts of yesterdays gains. The cotton market has had very little to talk about as picking continues in earnest across most of the US under good conditions. Certified stocks have continued to grow, with a total of approximately 220,000 bales now sitting in board warehouses, whilst weekly export sales showed that just over 300,000 bales where traded for the week.
The Aussie dollar came under fire overnight, with the European Central Bank unexpectedly cutting EU rates by 25pts to 0.25%, and US GDP coming in at 2.8% for the third quarter. The fourth quarter could be vastly different following the government shutdown of October, but most risk assets, including our dollar, are again looking a little out of favour as tapering of US stimulus again hits the headlines following the better than expected GDP result. Next week will see our CPI released which may be supportive of our currency if the stronger figures forecast come to fruition.
Locally harvest is winding down for most in the north, with only durum & chickpeas to be harvested for the most part north of Narrabri. The plains and central west, are still yet to really hit full swing. We have buyers looking for 70/10 and minimum ASW contracts, both ex-farm and delivered to a number of destinations. The protein market has held its ground in the packing market, with good prices still being bid. We are interested to hear from any growers with higher protein in the border region, which may work into Brisbane packing destinations. Feed grain prices (wheat/barley & new crop sorghum), have dropped a few dollars on the back of the forecast for rain over the weekend and into next week, but this could quickly rebound next week if the event fails to provide good general rain. The pulse market is starting to move in the right direction with local prices for chickpeas reaching the $350-360’s whilst the Brisbane number has made its way to around the $410, and with reasonable freight this could see the grower getting $350+ on farm.