Fact of the Day – After Monday’s World Series victory for the Red Sox, Boston is now the undisputed title town of the 21st century. Since 2001 the city of Boston has won 5 NFL Super Bowls (Patriots), 4 MLB World Series (Red Sox), 1 NBA Championship (Celtics) and a NHL Stanley Cup (Bruins).
November is now upon us and so is the 2018/19 harvest period. Reports from CQ all the way down to the North West show there has been positive news on yields and quality, though we all know with the good comes some bad. Most cereals are underway around the region, give or take a few areas that are just not fully developed. Temperatures are set to hit the big 40 this weekend to kick off the last month of spring. This heat will definitely take its toll on both unharvested grain, as well as summer crops already in the ground, such as dry land cotton and early Sorghum. On a global market scale, President Trump is threatening more heightened tariffs to escalate the already damaging trade war between the two super powers. They expect to increase these tariffs by 10-25% come January. This tiff should be monitored closely, as it could really impact our sorghum market if China look to us to supply once again. The European season is also facing harsh conditions much like the Australian season, though France looks to have a stronghold on the market by supporting current wheat values.
Quality wise, wheat now being stripped is fairing reasonably well with Intel from growers and over the weighbridge stating there is no trouble with high protein and test weights so far this season. Though in saying that, we will learn much more day by day as more and more grain is stripped throughout the border regions heading south to the plains. Prime hard wheat is bid in to Narrabri at $470/mt, with also the option of multi grade contracts to include decreased/heightened protein and/or screenings. Demand for barley is still very much subdued since we reached those high prices in August. There was increased demand and low supply but since then, it has shifted completely. Recent trades show new crop F1 bid indicatively at $430 ex-farm Narrabri and surrounding areas.
Fabas have had a very appealing few days, last week we spoke on #1 beans in to Narrabri, since then they have now jumped fifty dollars to $800/mt for November delivery. This is mainly due to such a supply of poor quality feed grade Fabas over the last year. On top of this you have two very small seasons in a row for the pulse which also pushes those prices onwards and upwards. #2s and #3s are at a $20/$40 discount also, that’s over $500/mt above where we stood a year ago. Where we touched on Chickpeas last week, the overseas demand is still pretty well not evident, though we expect the market to rally in to the New Year as Bangladesh will have to purchase tones regardless to fill their own demand. Prices today stand at $780 for new crop delivered in to the Downs and Narrabri, with warehousing and multi grades (CHKPM) also of great interest to growers. Old crop peas hold their own at $680 delivered Wee Waa, Trangie and Goondiwindi.
Working off last week’s ups and downs of the cotton market, this week has been fairly lacklustre to say the least, with trading movements very low for now. Weather in the US is now much of a lesser concern, along with crop progress here at home with some decent falls lately to kick along soil profiles. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $616, 2020 $595 and $535/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).