The release of the USDA stocks report overnight contained positive data for the wheat market, but the bearish tones associated with the Corn and Soybean stocks overwhelmed the market and pushed all three of the trading complexes lower by the end of the session. Speculative liquidation of positions that had been taken ahead of the reports release by the funds in the corn and soybean pits, and the continued forecast for excellent harvesting weather for early crops pushed the trade lower into the close. Soybean and Corn crops look set to be spared the late season frost that was concerning a number of trader, and subsequent estimates on yield look be to well on track to reaching those previously forecast by the USDA.
The cotton market added to last weeks 200pt plus gain, as prices continue to firm internationally due to the limited supply of cotton outside of China for prompt delivery. Chinese mills have until the 31st December to take delivery of imported cotton under the 3 to 1 quota arrangement following the reserve auctions in July and August, but this is proving difficult given the significant delays being experienced with the US crop, flooding in India.
The Aussie dollar seems in limbo as we await the RBA decision which most seem most likely will see rates unchanged, but continued speculation about the US debt agreements is the hot topic. The impact of a US Government shutdown is a somewhat unknown given the recovery of the last few months, as is the impact that could be felt by our currency.
The office has spoken with a number of growers in the north that have indicated that they have started harvesting faba beans and windrowing/picking up canola. The barley crop is finishing off quickly, but we are yet to see to many tonnes harvested, whilst we have heard that barley is making its way onto the downs from central Queensland, and starting to fill homes for their immediate needs. Wheat prices have continued to strengthen to numbers seen back in July, as growers resist selling prior to getting their crop in the bin. We have demand for prompt 70/10 which may work for any growers looking to get started with a wheat harvest in the next week 10 days. Faba beans numbers remain firm into all packers, at $390-$400 depending on location, whilst the chickpea market continues to loose ground to around $340-350’s for November delivery.