With the market still coming to grips with the Planting Intentions out on the eve of Easter, last night saw the second market moving USDA report in a fortnight released. Wheat finished down on an increase in US carryout of 16 million bushels and world ending stocks increased by 4 million metric tonnes. Corn was able to finish up, with coarse grains considered bullish for now, but an overall increase of 1.1 million metric tonnes was counted, with increases in Brazilian and the EU Corn, offset by deductions in Chinese sorghum, South Africa corn & Algerian barley. Soybeans closed marginally lower, ending stocks jumped up another 2 million metric tonnes, with demand in China slowing, and ample supply coming out of South America. Cotton finished up, still not trading the fundamentals with world ending stocks added another 1% to 82.5 million bales (45.6m of these in China).
Sorghum demand remains strong both track & XF. Demand is strong delivered Narrabri for April but it’s difficult to get a bid out of buyers for May/June/July delivery. We are hearing that bids through the trade are thin at the moment and at similar levels to track values for April delivery. Over the past week we have seen offers for May/June delivery but these offers haven’t been able to be converted into business booked as buyers are standing back and taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to June/July prices. System sorghum for April/May transfer today is at $272/mt Newcastle with 21 day end of week payment.
For growers with late sorghum the difficulty with a late harvest this year will be two-fold. Firstly, moisture will most likely be an issue due to the shorter daily harvest period and weather. Secondly, any sorghum being harvested/marketed during this period will be competing against LPP sorghum going south/east and NNSW/SQ heading north. We’re not saying there won’t be demand but if growers closer to domestic destinations are actively selling they will be achieving higher prices due to the freight advantage, making it more difficult to try and extract those extra few dollars most seem to be constantly holding out for.
We are exploring more homes for late sorghum including Narrabri, potentially minimising or eliminating the risk of high moisture sorghum being rejected at more distant destinations. For anyone looking to enquire about June/July sorghum (XF, system or delivered) please give us a call.
We also have strong demand for mungbeans. With the smaller crop size this year, demand remains strong, as do prices. Today, we are looking at $1150/mt Sprouting, $1025/mt No1 Processing, $950/mt Processing and $750/mt Manufacturing delivered Goondiwindi. We believe these prices to be very competitive and have been actively buying mungbeans. Given the fragility of mungbeans, we would strongly recommend growers try not to double handle them.
Chickpeas have seen almost zero demand in the past few weeks. This week we have traded chickpeas at $500/mt delivered Dubbo and $490/mt delivered Narrabri for April delivery. Although chickpeas have traded at these levels, we believe demand to be still quite thin and demand into Dubbo is a lot stronger than Narrabri. Please contact us if you are interested in offering peas at these values.