Fact of the Day – The late George H. W. Bush, was not only the 41stPresident of the United States, but also was the father of the 43rdPresident George W. Bush. He enlisted in the U.S Navy when he was 18 years old, was the youngest aviator in the U.S Navy and continued to serve in the Navy till the end of World War II, leaving in 1945 as a decorated pilot who flew 58 combat missions.
This week looks to be bring a festive change with significant rain forecasted across Northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland. Falls of 10-60mm have already fallen this afternoon around the Narrabri and Moree area. This rain although welcome, will also be a tremendous spark for the current summer crops that are in dire need of a drink, especially at this crucial development period. Sorghum prices have definitely softened up over the last 7 days, this can be really put down to anticipation of the moisture on its way, it is also a pleasing trade-off for growers as a hit in pricing is easier to swallow when crop production is increased due to late December showers. Even though the lack of moisture is more than obvious, the subdued heat has been more of a saving grace than we first anticipated, if we were to face another early summer like 2018, current crops would near be rendered useless. Weather outlooks appear to portray that our regions will escape noteworthy heat until the New Year…. Here’s hoping!
With the Christmas break approaching, majority of buyers in the pulse market, specifically Chickpeas have now closed their 2018 book for purchases as they now focus on 2019. As overseas interest is dwindling, this really doesn’t come as a surprise as January and February are traditionally the more active months for our main importers. As India are still very much doing their own thing, we must watch Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s and the Middle East’s season and how their projected production is looking. With current reports stating their crops, to a certain degree are looking dismal, this will then create a higher demand for Australian peas, more so as these buyers look to stock up before the fasting period of Ramadan in May. Currently New Year crop is priced at $900 Downs for Jan/Feb and $880 Narrabri for Dec/Jan. Old crop still holds its gains though currently no immediate demand is sought for the remainder of 2018, $830 Narrabri Jan/Feb is the strongest seen at time of writing.
This week we have seen positive progress on 2019 bale prices as well as for 2020. Though this could potentially deteriorate depending on how current overseas relationships blossom. With China agreeing last month to promptly buy the US’ agricultural goods, especially cotton, this could very much drop the basis here at home. If the Chinese were to shift to predominantly American cotton, it forces our supply to take quite a hit. As I have said over the past few months regarding this trade war, watch this space! Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $620, 2020 $592 and $542/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).