Futures markets for all major commodities were down overnight following the release of the June USDA report. Wheat finished down 13 ¾ at 683 c/bu with traders bearish against the 13/14 USDA crop estimates. Traders had expectation 19 million bushel less than the report. An estimated cut of 5 million tonne to world ending stocks, which was larger than expected, adding only short term support. The July contract for soybeans finished up slighted but the November contract finished down sharply 12 ¾ to 1314 ¼ c/bu, the USDA report was considered neutral for beans with no change to estimated ending stocks for 13/14 from the May report. Many traders thought yield estimates would be adjusted lower due to late planting which was considered bearish on the market. Corn finished down 13 ¼ to 537 ½ c/bu with ethanol usage down week on week. The USDA report saw traders bearish as they had US ending stocks pegged approximately 250,000 bushels below the USDA report. Planted acreage was left unchanged but yield was adjusted down. Cotton moved sharply up overnight 289 points to 88.07 c/lb breaking through the top side of its trading range on the back of the USDA report confirming market concerns of US Cotton supplies. The USDA estimate has reduced planted acreage by 300,000 acres and US ending stocks have been trimmed by 400,000 bales to 3.6 million bales. Though sentiment, is that the USDA report did nothing for the global balance sheet, with China holding inventory far greater than their annual usage.
Domestically, we have seen old crop wheat values remain relatively unchanged during the week with basis remaining firm. We are seeing strong values for ASW/APW/H2 in the system at mainline sites of around $325 Newcastle, which equates to Moree $277, Narrabri $285.50, Gunnedah $293. Please call us with any parcels of this grade in any site or ex-farm. With more rain throughout the region, reports are starting to talk of improved wheat production into the coming season. Old crop represents good value compared to current new crop. New crop wheat the past week has traded up to $286/mt Newcastle with some selling activity in both Newcastle and Brisbane port-zones. Global production is looking at a large 2013/2014 crop in all major growing regions. We believe growers should be considering selling some new crop multi grade wheat at levels above $280 port. Sorghum harvest has almost come to a stand still, with rain and poor harvesting days. There is still continued demand for Sorghum with prices hitting $295 delivered Narrabri & $330 delivered Brisbane. If you have Sorghum within spec please call us with an offer. We do have homes for high moisture (15% max)Sorghum at a discount of approx. $10/Tonne. New crop chickpea values have been around $445-450/mt delivered Narrabri which historically are pretty reasonable numbers. Faba beans for Oct/Nov pick-up are $340/mt XF Narrabri/Wee Waa/Cryon for No. 2’s or better and $330XF Garah/Weemelah again for No. 2’s or better. We have seen domestic cotton prices rally during the week hitting $485 for current crop and reaching $490 for new crop, with futures prices rallying some 200 points overnight and currency settling in at 0.94 cents. The market has been extremely volatile over the past 2 weeks, and we would consider placing market orders at $490-$500/bale.