A pretty uninteresting session for futures markets overnight. It looks like the rebound in corn values, following the USDA’s smaller than expected estimate for US corn stocks, has run out of steam within a week with its second negative session in a row, losing 2.5 USc/bu. Wheat has just managed to break its seven session negative streak, with the December contract sneaking up a quarter of a cent, while the other contract dates all closed lower. There are thoughts that US wheat has now reached a level in which it will be competitive on international markets; a new tender from Egypt released after the close of US markets will soon make it clear whether this is the case or if EU wheat is still the frontrunner. The December contract on cotton futures expires in a few weeks on December 6th. In recent times this has been a very volatile period for the contract and we may see some fireworks in both directions before it is taken off the board. Aussie cotton values have been creeping back up to $450 after the rapid deterioration in futures values of a few weeks ago.
Domestically, growers on the Liverpool Plains could be getting back in to harvest as early as today following widespread showers of over an inch early in the week. Growers are eager to get back in as soon as possible with the chance of further rain this weekend having the potential to cause issues to grain quality. Prices on the Plains for 70/10 have been holding steady in the past week in the $260’s ex farm for prompt movement, however appear to be coming under pressure as more grain comes off. Also we have started to see prices come through for delivery to Newcastle for H2 and APW grades, with H2 at $315 delivered for December movement. Around Narrabri protein wheat prices have improved, with APH1 and APH2 prices above $290 delivered packers. Prices for parcels of HPS1 wheat with high protein are in strong demand and represent good value for high screenings wheat. In the north, while values for 70/10 have softened in the past few weeks, we have prompt demand for this quality for movement North, around $265 ex farm around Moree being possible today. We can bid on all stocks in the system also, in particular APW in all sites above $300 track, HPS1 in the system at $253 Narrabri site, and AUH2 and APH2 stocks on the Narrabri mainline sites and in the Central West. For grower with durum in the system we are currently bidding for DR1 above $330 Newcastle track on a site specific basis.
Looking at other commodities, canola prices have been holding at $505 Newcastle Track, while we also have options for stock being held on farm. If you have low oil we have the ability to price on a flat priced basis also. We have homes for off spec barley, ie F2 or FX. We are taking F1 on the Liverpool Plains at $245 delivered, in the north the best value for parcels on farm is in the new year, around $450 ex farm on the border. Parcels in the system in the north are also being priced based on Brisbane track values instead of Newcastle. Chickpeas have had a modest increase in the last week, and while numbers are still a long way from what most growers consider fair value any improvement is welcome in the current market. Delivered in to Narrabri has been at $375, or for Northern growers we have homes either on to the Downs at $385-390, or in to Brisbane at $410.