As this week brought out the US Dept. of Agriculture’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates (USDA WASDE), it was much softer than first anticipated. However, the fact that there will be less grain produced globally in the 2017/18 season, compared to this season, means that less of a production shock is needed to relive the supply side pressure on global balance sheets.
As the dry weather over the past couple of months we have seen growers well in to cotton picking and as well sowing to get the new crop in to the ground with what moisture is already present. Many growers taking the dry weather and forecast for winter in their stride and spreading income through to the next financial year to get the most out of their current funds. Cotton this year so far is closer to average than above, prices ranging form $550-60/bale for 2017 and $530-40/bale for 2018. Cotton futures finally rallied in to the green after a dull week, with a big emphasis on old crop and new crop.
Within the export market we have seen this week that milling wheat is still very firm and there is a strong potential for demand to continue on the rise. Barley has made a substantial spike of roughly $10 in raging from $220-35 delivered Darling Downs in some bids, where Sorghum has also rallied in the same range with Sorghum 2 increasing at the same pace of Barley with a $10-15 lift delivered Newcastle.
Interest on Faba Beans has been low but there is still a flutter with interest at $200 Ex-Farm Moree/Narrbari. Chickpeas are still very strong for old crop at $1050 Ex-Farm. 17/18 new crop is $20 off the high. Canola very tight this week with interest south of Narrabri pricing roughly at $580/mt Ex-Farm.