The US have a couple of days remaining to come to some sort of agreement on their debt ceiling, and while it is largely expected that a compromise will be reached in the meantime we still have this uncertainty pervading the market. We are still dealing with the governmental shutdown with the absence of reports from the USDA having some impact on commodity prices. The rumourmill is still running with reports of China buying bulk stocks of soybeans out of the states, due to a resent reduction in the total Chinese production of 4.2%. While the exact tonnage varies there is enough noise about it that there must be some truth to the stories. Soybean futures had a modest increase on the back of this. In fact all futures had slight improvements, with corn also managing some gains with the US harvest being interrupted by rain. Wheat struggled to post anything substantial after trading sideways for the last few sessions, with thoughts the market may be near its peak.
There have been some revised estimates of total Australian production recently with forecasters having numbers approaching 26mmt. Our Western Australian friends have had a reversal in fortunes after a poor start to the season with CBH increasing their wheat estimate up to 10.6mmt, coming up from as low as 9mmt. The majority of the rest of the country is now looking at average or above average yields, with the exception of NWNSW and Qld. Wheat harvest has begun in Queensland, and while yields are down as expected, quality has been generally good, with decent quantities of protein wheat coming off with not much screenings to speak of at this point.
Harvest is progressing further south in to NSW, with barley coming off over the past week and the first wheat crops beginning to come off north of Moree. Faba beans and canola have been coming off for a few weeks now. While faba bean prices have softened in the last week, we can still take delivery in to Goondiwindi at $375 for no. 1 grade. Alternatively AgVantage is running a storage and warehousing arrangement in Agripark Moree for faba beans and chickpeas. Please call the office if this is of interest. While prompt homes for barley have dried up, we are still able to move ex farm parcels of F1 November/December, with premiums for growers who are able to store in to January. Track prices for Moree North are the same as Brisbane at the moment around $270, while we are also interested in any malt, which is running around a $15 premium. We can price parcels of canola ex farm for growers who have stored on farm, depending on oil content. Track prices have been holding above $500 Newcastle. Please call the office with any parcel and we will give you a price.