CBOT wheat futures have seen a rollercoaster ride over the past week with fundamentals being closely studied. Last night the May wheat contract was down 13.75cents as reports of rain forecast over the Central and Southern Plains regions in the coming week which will be seen as beneficial to crops. May corn lost 6.5cents overnight and closed at 497.50US cents/bushel. Crush and export demand for US beans remains strong and soybeans posted 8 month highs overnight with the May contract up 17.5 cents at 1518.75 US cents/bushel. This was despite Chinese cancellation of cargoes, but US stocks are tight, which is keeping the bulls fed.
Locally, old crop wheat values remain relatively unchanged this week, and is around a $370/mt delivered Downs region. This would equate to a $335XF Garah/Moree region with better numbers closer to the border. There are still stocks of old crop on-farm, and there has been a number of reasons growers are continuing to hold. These being; cashflow, a hedge against new crop, or the belief they may achieve higher prices in the coming months. We have heard mixed reports about new crop planting intentions in the past week. Whilst some growers are very happy with soil moisture levels, others haven’t been so lucky and the rain received hasn’t provided enough moisture to be confident of a winter crop plant. There has been some selling interest in new crop 70/10 this week and values have been $300-305/mt delivered Downs. New crop 70/10 is being bid around $275XF Edgeroi. New crop track prices are hard to determine as bids aren’t generic, they are very site specific and the track values can vary $10-15/mt depending on location. New crop wheat in the north is priced off a northern number, less freight back to the site, whereas more southern sites (Moree south) are based on a track value (but still site-specific with merchants internal freight differing from GTA location differentials). With this week and next being a short week, we expect local markets to remain fairly stable and quiet.
This week we saw interest for new crop canola hectare contracts on an ex-farm basis and these traded at $500XF Narrabri/Edgeroi for Oct/early November pick-up. Whilst we are expecting a reduction in area planted this year, for anyone interested, please give our office a call to discuss.
Chickpeas this week have not changed in values, and old crop is still sitting around a $470-475/mt delivered Downs. We know of a large number of parcels still on-farm and most growers are waiting for another pop in the market. Given the uncertainty and at times volatility of this market, we are unsure whether this will happen. As we mentioned last week the driver of demand currently is Bangladesh and at present they are only looking to source 20,000mt/month. We know this may change at any time and Indian demand will probably not be known until they finish harvest. New crop values are around $470/mt delivered Downs this week also, which isn’t encouraging a lot of sellers at the moment.
New crop faba bean values this week were at $380/mt delivered Downs for fixed tonnage of No1 quality and a $20/mt discount to No2’s. Hectare contracts are available at a discount of $20/mt to fixed tonnage. Whilst we are not being over-run with enquiry on faba beans at the moment, we believe these to represent quite reasonable prices, in light of historical faba bean values.
Cotton overnight saw gains of 128 points on the July contract and closed at 91.04cents/bushel. Locally, prices have been capped recently with a higher AUD which is trading around 0.9372USD this afternoon. Picking is continuing albeit very slowly post-rain. A few growers have reported being oversold now due to yield declines and for the most part, growers are happy to take a ‘wait and see’ approach to selling more cotton.