The grains space continues to suffer at the hands of the US government shutdown, with the lack of evidence regarding weekly trade and export delivery casting clouds over what has and hasn’t happened during the past couple of weeks. The lack of last weeks USDA report is also opening the market up for a significant correction once the reports start filtering back thru. Traders have been making their own assumptions, but wheat and corn traders look to have sold 700kmt & 750kmt respectively, whilst the soybean market could have sold as much as 1mmt of whole product and 200kmt of meal over the course of the week. Corn and Soybean harvests continue to move along under good conditions, whilst winter wheat planting in the US and Black Seas regions continue to provide a limit to the markets upside.
The cotton market made a slight correction overnight, after digesting some Chinese data which indicated that September imports where a 2 year low, and that year on year imports have decreased by 19%. Certified stock is continuing to grow, with the expectation that over 100,000 bales could be board certified by the end of the week, as we continue with the US harvest. The delivery of bales to the board, has pushed the March, May and July contracts out to carry over the nearby December market.
The US government seems to have got it together for another couple of months, but im sure we’ll all be watching it unfold in the weeks after Christmas, when the go at each other in the early weeks of January. The Aussie dollar has reached 5 month highs as the RBA minutes released last week indicated that the continuing of interest rate easing looks to have run its course, It remains to be seen how the RBA will look upon a 95cent currency at the meeting to be held on Melbourne Cup Day.
Locally we are continuing to see harvest progress with a good deal of the faba bean crop north of Narrabri now in the bin, canola continues to be picked up and barley is starting to make its way off the paddock in reasonable quantity and quality. Early chickpeas have been hitting storages with prices failing to excite most growers. The early wheat crop has been of mixed quality, with screenings proving to be somewhat of an issue most likely due to the quick finish of the crop. The packing market has shown some interest in high protein wheat with screenings, but with limited tonnes coming off so far, it may take a few days for traders to digest what is becoming available. For growers in the north, the stockfeed quality SWF (70/10) grade remains the focus for most of the trade, and we have buyers looking to take grain quiet promptly to meet their demands. For the grower that got sorghum in following the September rainfall event, the current prices in the $270s track are worth considering at the moment, and we have buyers in the bulk handling system, delivered end user and packer interested in getting some tonnes on the books.
A reminder that AgVantage is offering storage for Faba Beans and Chickpeas at Agripark in Moree, and we have a number of Kwik Kleen Grain Cleaners in Narrabri ready for delivery should you encounter dirt, weed seeds and defectives in your pulses and screenings/admix in your Wheat, Barley, Durum and Canola.