Was great to see some water falling out of the sky yesterday, we had begun to forget what it looked like. The Namoi and Liverpool Plains areas generally received around 20-25 ml. Even the Western guys managed to get some this time, with Walgett recorded as receiving over an inch. It starts to thin out further North, with Moree receiving around an inch but Goondiwindi only getting 5-10 ml. The central west and South of NSW were the big winners, with the Macquarie looking at upwards of 2 inches, and Dubbo recording over 70 ml, however there have been some reports of hail. The southern half of the state are now looking at securing a large crop with around 2 inches of rainfall, with the timing meaning yield losses from the run of dryness will not have been extensive. While the rain is welcome for all growers, it has come too late in the north and especially out west with reduced production and quality issues already locked in. The biggest benefit may be securing moisture for planting of summer crops, however again growers in the west are still facing of moisture deficit that will require 3-4 inches before a summer crop becomes an option.
The widespread rains has resulted in a further weakening of Australian basis which has had a sharp fall over the past week. ASX Jan 14 Wheat values dropped $7 yesterday to $264/mt. US futures markets have taken a negative feel to them also following what was largely perceived as a bearish USDA report for grains, however wheat and corn futures managed to remain stable overnight. Rainfall in soybean growing areas in the states has also seen canola numbers soften after the USDA report spurred a short term rally in prices. Buyers are turning their focus to securing new crop out of Port Kembla which is running at a discount to the Newcastle line, with purchases taking place in the mid $270s for new crop multigrades. Production concerns for crop coming out of the NNSW and QLD should see northern feed markets support values to a degree.
AgVantage are hosting a series of pre-harvest meetings this week, giving an update on the prospects for the coming harvest along with discussing options available for on-farm storage solutions. We will be at Spring Ridge on Thursday morning and Bellata in the afternoon, before heading to Narromine Friday morning and Coonamble in the afternoon. Please give the office a call for more details.