Last week USDA WASDE report only confirmed the high global production potential for 2016-17, which sent the market into decline mode and with the $A advancing, added to the seasonal low pricing in the market. Lets hope that now those factors contributing to the decline are in the past and the market can recover some lost value. Today we have the $A lower at .7650, is a good start and with northern hemisphere winter crop harvest well advanced, harvest pressure is appearing to reduce and the global market is working through available quality of the crops. Lower pricing is finding international grower selling reluctance, so maybe we can see some upward price movement going forward. Any upward moves will need to be supported with production issues, with the first signs of dryness across Brazil reducing row crop and cotton plantings, and record yields for US crops in question. Global futures markets are mostly in carry, with only soybeans [CBT] inverse, on record yield potential.
Cotton bids were hit hard following the USDA report, with bids sub $500/bale, with a modest recovery seen from yesterday may see bids approach the $500/bale mark.
Domestic markets remain under pressure for old crop, with limited demand ahead of new crop, with buyers having mostly completed purchases through to last quarter of the year, the start of new crop harvest and having made solid purchases of new crop. Growers with warehouse grain in BHA will have until 30/9/2016 until increased monthly storage charges are applied, with new season starting 1/10/2016, may see ex farm grain delivered into the new season.
New crop multi-grade wheat is at $238/mt APW1 Newcastle NTP with grade spreads increasing on the lower grade. Fixed grade bids for the higher protein milling grades are holding a premium over the multi-grade option.
F1 is bid $188/mt Newcastle NTP with some premium for northern locations on NSW. Malt spreads are in the $10-$20/mt range. New crop sorghum is back at $215/mt NTP Newcastle. Canola NTP bids are firmer at $521/mt.
Chickpea bids for new crop continue to trend lower as grower selling increases. The export market continues to reflect need for early product, Newcastle NTP is bid $800/mt October – November with the December price back $60/mt. Delivered packer bids eased $10/mt over the week, across all regions and delivery periods. Fababean buyer interest has improved with delivered packer bids at $300/mt for new crop.
Old crop demand remains hand to mouth, with limited demand for all grains. Old crop chickpeas demand remains limited with demand into Downs markets the best option.