U.S markets have been quiet this week as they have been closed due to the Martin Luther King Jr holiday. This closure has created a lack of direction, so many traders have been sitting on the sidelines until the market opens again this evening. The AUD/USD has also firmed, but at the time of writing, has slipped under $0.82 cents to $0.8185. Renewed Chinese buying interest for Australian sorghum, wheat & barley, has seen some support return to these markets. Current sorghum bids delivered Brisbane & Newcastle are back to around $312, where they had slipped closer to $300 last week, from highs of around $328. Sorghum 2 discounts are also available, along with the potential of obtaining a staining discount (SSOR) on a case by case basis. Please call us if you would like to discuss having a discount added to your contracted sorghum.
Many are asking why the markets have been declining. Simply put, it’s a combination of declining U.S futures for wheat, corn, & soybeans, a firmer AUD/USD, & the simple economic notion of there being ‘more sellers than buyers’ over the last month. With the USDA report out last week, the market is clearly comfortable with global grain stocks, so as U.S futures decline, whilst Australian east coast is still at a premium, our base price also declines. We see value opportunities in current wheat & barley prices. Whilst we think sorghum prices are also good, we think there is more potential for volatility in the sorghum market as long as China remains a buyer, & the trade have to procure grain to execute their sales contracts, potentially resulting in ‘short covering’. Chickpea demand is waning, with many buyers covered for the short term. The strength in the AUD/USD has also stifled demand. Whilst we have been recommending growers sell into this recent rally for CHKP, we still think there will be firm demand for Australian chickpeas through to our new crop. The demand & AUD/USD will determine our price, but if we were betting people, we will see higher prices yet. This may not be until later in the year, post April….
We have strong interest for old crop faba beans, with the last business done at $480 delivered Wee Waa for No.1’s, less $15 for No.2’s. We also have hectare contracts for mungbeans, with no minimum, or maximum tonnages required to be delivered, providing growers with production flexibility. Prices are very high for both spring & summer crop mungbeans, & by contracting, we can guarantee delivery at harvest, which can be peace of mind for such a high priced asset.