Overnight CBOT May 2014 wheat gained 23.25 USc/bu to close at 715.75 USc/bu due to the dryness of the US hard red winter wheat crop and fund buying on reports that the Ukraine are going to remove troops from Crimea. Fund buying was also present last night, which pushed the wheat market higher.CBOT May 2014 corn was pretty quiet overnight and finished up 1.5 USc/bu to close at 487.75 USc/bu, after no significant fundamental news to push the market higher. It was reported that beans were up last night due to rationing of demand. TheCBOT May 2014 contract ended the night up 13 USc/bu at 1431.25 USc/bu.
Our Dollar was back overnight and this morning is trading around $.9038USD.
Locally, we have seen a slight lift in delivered feed grain values this week. We already have a drought premium built into our prices in NNSW/SQ and the volatility in futures markets in recent weeks largely has not been reflected here. 70/10 delivered Downs today is around $368/mt delivered, barley is $355/mt and sorghum $333/mt delivered Downs. Demand remains strong for all feed grains however, active sellers are limited and only small parcels are trading. For anyone that does have parcels they are looking to price, please contact us as we have multiple buyers that are looking to source product.
From a planting perspective in NNSW/SQ, we currently haveanother 4-5 weeks planting window remaining for canola and faba beans however we will require some large falls of rain for this to occur, particularly canola, which ideally should be planted on sub-moisture profiles close to being full. The odds of receiving this rain, & getting on the country to plant are slim to say the least.
Storms have been hanging around the past 1-2 weeks, but we’ve really only been receiving a few millimetres here and there, which is really only running down large cracks. For many feeding stock it is particularly concerning that if we don’t receive rain soon, it will be too cold to produce feed for the winter months and all that would really grow would be clover, and that will create other issues.
Sorghum is getting closer to being harvested on the Liverpool Plains. Yield and quality is largely unknown and will remain so until headers are in the paddock. Sorghum values today for SOR1 are $333/mt delivered Newcastle and $328/mt trackNTL, however we believe most growers are reluctant to sell more until they have an idea of quality & yield. There is currently good demand for SOR2 in the north, both in the system and on-farm and we have multigrade products (SOR1/2/3) available on an ex-farm or delivered Goondiwindibasis for anyone with borderline quality.
Chickpeas continue to show their volatility over the last week with a momentary spike in prices followed very swiftly by a sharp decline in demand. The main driver behind this spike was concern over poor weather in India and the risk of damage to the chickpea crop in the subcontinent. Only a day or two later, all buyers are reporting that the prices achieved are gone and even if there is damage to the Indian crop, the peas will still be used. Prices today are in the low $480’s delivered Downs however the majority of buyers have exited the market completely.
Cotton was off last night, with the May contract losing 31 points and July losing 25 points. Last night’s moves were mostly due to uncertainty over whether China will continue to buy at current levels. The weekly export sales report will be released tonight and is expected to be bearish, so perhaps some positioning prior to this. Sales out of the US into China are almost non-existent at present and we believe they have also been cancelling sales. Locally, basis levels have dipped this week as the Chinese Mills are unwilling to purchase at current levels as New York moves higher. In other words, there is a dislocation between futures & the physical market, so often seen when futures rally strongly on the back of speculation rather than fundamentals.Today, ECOM are bidding $528/bale for 2014 pick. Tonight, the Upper Namoi Cotton Grower’s Association is holding it’s annual awards dinner. Chris and Erin will be attending, along with Alex Harris from ECOM. Tomorrow the Macquarie Valley are holding their Golf Day at Warren, and next Thursday the Lower Namoi Cotton Grower’s Association are looking to hold their monthly meeting in Wee Waa.
For any rugby fans out there interested in listening to Ben Tune speak, he will be at the Crossing Theatre, Narrabri tomorrow evening (Friday 21st May at 6.45pm). It is a gold coin donation entry fee. We believe this would be of great interest as Ben will be speaking about his battle with depression, his attempt at suicide and the challenges he has faced to overcome this illness.
A reminder that we are able to source product for those feeding stock. Currently, we have access to barley, wheat, faba beans, corn, and grape marc.