Fact of the Day – If you could fly a plane to the planet Pluto, the trip would take you more than 800 years.

As November has arrived and harvest is in full swing, we have a much broader perspective on progression through crops across northern New South Wales (NNSW). As we are now in the last month of spring, the increasing temperatures and afternoon storms are becoming much more prevalent. The heat paralleled with strong winds are beginning to accelerate many of the crops development yet to be stripped. With forecasters expecting rain later this week and flowing in to the weekend, this will keep up soil moisture levels for summer cropping but also has the potential to throw yet another ‘spanner in the works’ for most harvest schedules throughout the North West. Poor reports have come out of the US with the Dept. of Ag recording that of the winter Wheat planted just over half is at “good or excellent” health condition. Even though this is only preliminary and the first reading of the crop, historically it is still stunted going off the five year average. Temperatures are also running well below across the American Plains and Midwest, after the weekend faced across the southern states also, there is a warmer front set to arrive in the coming days to bring temperatures back to bearable. This will alleviate concerns for winter Wheat and southern Cotton parts.

As we covered last week, protein Wheat has continued its run as more high protein grain is being delivered in to packing sites around Narrabri and Moree with very few having trouble with screenings. Even though there is a much lower yield this season and cases of shot and sprung grain due to the moisture, the higher protein seems to be the silver lining for most. Looking from Central Queensland south to the downs the general consensus is that quality wasn’t perfect with lower yields, frost damage, soil/admix and immature seed sizes setting the pace. At this time we see it much more beneficial to be delivering in to packers for higher quality Wheat rather than in to the system. Obviously there are other contributing factors that affect growers individually such as freight rates and turnaround times for unloading but all definitely viable for at least some consideration when pricing your grain.

Site Location and Grade

Delivered to Packing Facilities

Delivered Site in the System

Narrabri APH1 & APH2 & H2

$330/$320/$300

$307/$300/$276

GF Bellata APH1 & APH2 & H2

N/A

$330/$307/282

Moree APH1 & APH2 & H2

$331/$324/$316

$304/$297/$268

Summer crops (Sorghum, Cotton) are going in to the ground in great quantity now due to the late rain received throughout October, Sorghum is still a little soft for now due to the increased planting area across the NNSW and SQ and we have seen this reflected in pricing over the past four weeks. Faba Beans were off the paddock before most realised, it was a short and sharp season compared to previous years though demand for new crop in to the packers is still fetching the $300 mark less twenty dollars for grade two beans. As touched on there wasn’t a large crop this season, soon as most high quality tonnages have been packed away, all eyes will return on the 2016/17 season beans for domestic use and there does still seems to be a significant amount still in storage.

As the temperatures begin to rise, the paddocks of peas around NNSW are set to turn and be ready for harvest this week and next for most. Chickpeas at the moment are not as positive as they were ten days ago. We have seen prices soften as of late due to the lowered demand and the considerable crop on the sub-continent, though with more growers looking to hold off on selling, packers will be looking to fill orders creating a short term rally to get the grain in to sites. Delivered Narrabri prices are $790/mt with the Downs at just ten dollars more for November. The price in to Narrabri though not as strong as previously, is still at a premium of around twenty to thirty dollars to what is seen in the market today. For the time being we would advise not looking to sell unless there is an eight at the beginning, thus storing on farm and warehousing is a much more viable option as yield is much lower than first estimated.

The Cotton futures have been paralleled last week and in to this week with the weather across the US southern growing states. As the regions copped a hefty freeze of temperatures over the weekend, reports are hazy on damage to the bolls but nothing to detrimental seems to have been addressed for the time being. The USD has strengthened along with a slight dip in futures putting bale prices for 2018 at the $508 mark and 2019 at $493. The Aussie dollars remains barely unchanged for the day at just over $0.765 (At time of writing).

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