This week everyone from growers to consumers are closely studying the weather forecast and waiting with bated breath as to what actually falls. Futures have seen some strong rallies this week but we have seen domestic values soften. Of course, if the rain doesn’t eventuate, we expect the market to correct.
Old crop fabas into the domestic market are difficult to place with the forecast, and most traders are saying that two weeks ago consumers and local farmer demand was present but today it’s not. The export market for fabas is pretty flat also. Bids range from $380-425/mt delivered Narrabri but most buyer’s positions are now square and don’t want to take on ‘bits & pieces’ type parcels.
Demand for prompt barley on the Liverpool Plains is strong. We currently have a slot for 120mt pick-up today/tomorrow around $255-260/mt ex-farm, depending on location. Wheat into the LPP destinations is $295/mt delivered and Newcastle $312/mt. At this spread, most LPP growers will deliver to local homes and the Newcastle destination will be filled by Central West grain.
In the past week we have heard of grain being priced around Narrabri/Moree for $290+ XF for December pick-up of 70/10. These prices are very strong and most traders are telling us they are sourcing grain cheaper either through the trade or from the Central West well below these values. We expect these prices are to fill immediate shorts and should be given serious consideration.
AGP in the system at Narrabri today is around $270/mt site. This makes it an equivalent of $329/mt delivered Downs for prompt delivery. If you compare it to Nyngan, where AGP at the site is around $236/mt, it’s delivered Downs equivalent is $310/mt, $19/mt cheaper than Narrabri wheat!
Chickpea demand is predominately for the New Year period and remain around $510/mt delivered Brisbane for Jan/Feb and $490/mt delivered Downs. Narrabri values are $470 for the same period. We should have a better handle on the Indian crops by this period, as well as a determination on whether they will impose an import tariff or not.