Generally, the market looks lower globally due to bearish fundamentals, and nationally from an Aussie crop prospect also. The exception to this is NNSW and SQ. Whilst we look out the window in NNSW and Southern Queensland and feel the pinch due to a lack of rain and crops that are either struggling or paddocks that haven’t been planted, the Central West down to SA and through to Geraldton winter crops and the outlook are fantastic. If there is an export surplus from these regions, and prices push lower or basis weakens it will cap upside potential for NNSW/SQ regions and grain will be drawn across or up to fill our domestic market. The short to medium term outlook is for price pressure. Of course there is the geo-political concerns in Russia/Ukraine and if this escalated and a war broke out it could tighten supplies coming out of that area. Similarly, if these regions block exports, it will add strength globally as this grain will need to be sourced from elsewhere.
The old crop versus new crop 70/10 SQ markets have narrowed. Late last week we were looking at $325/mt Downs and this week is more like $310-315/mt. New crop is around $300-305 delivered. New crop durum is at levels now that have pricked a few ears and we have seen some forward sales made. We have site-specific pricing available and quick payment terms for system grain.
Today, we are looking at durum values between $400-405/mt track, depending on site. These represent values not seen for some time, and to give you a comparison to Canadian futures values, the December Durum contract was at $256/mt overnight. New crop mungbeans have been of interest lately. We have the ability to contract on a delivered Goondi or Dalby basis and hectare contracts are available. Given the lack of winter crop planted, these are a real opportunity for growers should we receive rain for a spring plant.
There is a $100/mt premium for a spring crop compared to summer crop and given they are generally a 90 day crop we have received a higher number of enquiries this season compared to previous seasons. We still have buying interest in cotton for current pick and ECOM have also released a Guaranteed Minimum Price contract for next season. Please contact us to discuss these.