Overnight saw a good portion of the gains in the grain space made early in the week given up. The outside markets weighed heavily on the “Ag space”, with disappointing economic data out of China, Europe and the US. The weather market is firmly entrenched in Chicago, with continued cooler temps and potential freeze events expected to continue into mid May continuing to cause havoc in the wheat market. Soybeans buckled under the pressure of technical selling, and continued good harvesting in Brazil that is bearish world supply and demand, even though there continues to be a backlog on freight. Corn was able to hold on mostly, losing only a couple of cents as planting pace continues to stall well behind the 5 year average pace. Continued delays might force growers into later planted soybeans. Cotton gave up 4 days of straight gains, with lacklustre demand expected from China, and a forecast increase in ending stocks through 2013/14 due to expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere.
The Aussie came under pressure following the disappointing economic news out globally. All eyes are on next weeks’ big announcement; the RBA decision Tuesday afternoon, and Wayne Swans Budget on Wednesday night.
Domestically, grain prices have remained stable to trending upwards through the international market roller coaster, as we continue into our winter crop planting window with little to no moisture for the vast majority of the east coast cropping regions. A strong basis and a dip in the dollar helping to smooth local prices. Lower grades of wheat remain fiercely competitive, with nearly all wheat on farm being priced into the feed markets, with the exception of higher protein H2 & APH. Sorghum has jumped a few dollars for both track and ex-farm (May/June) while we sit between the early and yet to be harvested later crops. Chickpea prices remain quite buoyant and this week we have seen prices vary from $500-510 delivered destination (Narrabri/Wee Waa/Dubbo). With Ramadan commencing on 9th July, product needs to be packed and on the water by the end of May. We are hearing that the sub-continent have purchased their requirements for Ramadan period and there is no fresh demand. Traders locally are currently filling those packing/shipping requirements and still trying to make sales for June/July shipments (which appear difficult at the moment). Cotton prices lost between $15 overnight following the decline in New York futures.