Globally, grain stocks are in a very comfortable position. Russia continue to increase their production estimates and is expected to rise to 65 million tonnes next week. That’s a 20% increase from a few weeks ago. That would equate to an Aussie crop estimate jumping from 25 million tonnes to 30 million!
In Northern NSW all we see are continued dry conditions, crops struggling and without rain in the next few weeks will further deteriorate. Growers are struggling to understand why prices have fallen when conditions aren’t any better than they were a few weeks ago. Prices are being capped by Southern NSW/Vic prices. Port Kembla multigrade values are currently around $267/mt track, whilst Newcastle is $285/mt and NNSW sites up to $328/mt track.
Sorghum is difficult to move off the Liverpool Plains as consumer demand is extremely quiet. Prices at current levels have meant consumers have filled their rations with wheat from southern locations and only the minimum amount of sorghum is currently being used in rations. We only have homes into Tamworth at the moment for September at $250/mt delivered.
We purchased some new crop barley this week at $246XF Gunnedah/Mullaley region. Some feedback from one of the traders that missed the parcel was that they thought it was a ‘good number’. He also mentioned that at that price he was a seller of barley as he could purchase out of the system at say, Condoblin in the Central West, pull it out and execute into a NNSW/SQ domestic market cheaper than the $246XF LPP.
Old crop 70/10 delivered Downs has come under pressure in the past week. Today we are looking at $270XF Bellata/Moree region for August pick-up. Wheat with protein above 13-14% will work into Narrabri into the container market at $320-330/mt.
We still have new crop canola hectare contracts available at $450/mt XF Bellata/Edgeroi, subject to oil & admix.
Old crop chickpeas are difficult to move at the moment as demand is lacking. We do have a home into Narrabri and we expect these values to be around $440-445/mt.