Wheat futures pulled back overnight, losing 6 USc to close at its lowest level in over a month. This is despite several sources of support in the market, with consistent strong levels of demand for US wheat and production issues coming out of the likes of Russia and Brazil. The most bearish fundamental factor playing out in the market is a reduction of the base Government support level in India for wheat, which will enable the country to substantially increase its export program this season. Probably the main reason for the move overnight is that the export data for the entire period of the US Government shutdown will be released. The amount of information becoming available to the market is cause enough for uncertainty and the potential for volatility, with many participants taking profits and seeing how the market reacts. Corn was slightly softer, more as a result of the drop in the wheat market, with current values making US corn cheaper than its main rivals in the Black Sea region and spurring export demand for the commodity, which should limit further losses.
Harvest is pushing further south of Narrabri this week, with many growers in the North of the state having already finished. While completing harvest before November isn’t completely unheard of in this area, for many it is still a good week or more earlier than normal. At this point we are getting a better idea of how quality has been coming off in a broad sense. While low yields is widespread, high protein levels is common. Screenings has been a problem but not across the board. The best opportunity for protein wheat recently has been found by delivering in to container markets in Goondiwindi, Moree or Narrabri. With large volumes being sold directly in to the packers as it is being harvested prices for protein wheat have softened over the last fortnight, to the point where the premium for protein over feed wheat going in to northern markets is minimal. However the prices for delivering in to packers still offer more value than delivering in to the system. 70/10 grade wheat prices have recently been around $275 ex farm around Moree for a November/December pickup. Please call the office to discuss options for you wheat either in the system or on farm.
We also have demand for canola on a flat priced ex farm basis for growers with stocks still held on farm, around $435 – $440 on farm around Bellata. Prices in the system are currently holding just below $500 Newcastle track. Chickpeas have also had a modest increase, with ex farm prices around Goondiwindi around $355 – $360. Also we have limited demand for faba beans delivered in to Goondiwindi at $370. A reminder that AgVantage has a warehousing agreement with Agripark in Moree which allows you to store chickpeas and faba beans without having to enter in to a contract with a buyer.