Fact of the Day – Fourth of July fireworks are a large part of the tradition of celebrating this national holiday, in 2012 the U.S. imported $227.3 million worth of fireworks from China. Barbecuing is also big on Independence Day, approximately 150 million hot dogs and 700 million pounds of chicken are consumed on this day.

Exactly a week ago I stated that “We do not know what to believe when talking forecasts. Even though they prove beneficial for future planning, as of late there has not been one iota of accuracy, and rain can now only be perceived as evident when in the gauge”, now this is exactly what has occurred and growers banking on this outrageous forecast are back to square one. Where we sit now is a chance/risk of early germination, frost damage and/or just no follow up moisture in these now crucial developmental stages. Narrabri received about 7-10mm all up with not much more around the surrounding areas, though there was substantial drops of 20-40mm in the Central West and Darling Downs which is promising for those growers for the season ahead. Stateside the winter harvest is about half way through and on the good to excellent side. The markets (CBOT, ICE) we expect to be quite subdued for the remainder of the week due to Independence Day celebrations (4th of July) which are set to roll in to the weekend. All eyes for this week look to Friday with this the deadline for the Mexican standoff of tariffs between China and the US.

The feed market is still kicking along smoothly with demand across the North West and Southern Downs mainly being catered too by local grain from down the road. Trader demand still look to secure tonnes, though cannot compete with the selling interest when factoring in costs and logistics in to their own sites. Rain across the Downs, softened bids by $2-5/mt though nothing drastic as other prime growing areas received next to nil. Chickpea prices have come back from their $680/mt highs seen over the past few weeks, mostly due to trade teams prepping for the ‘apparent’ rain. Delivered Downs and Narrabri for old and new crop is bid at $630 July/August. Faba’s still aren’t being moved for anything less than $500 ex-farm and there is really nothing to show why it won’t slowly increase as the dry weeks continue to roll by.

Cotton has had a fluctuating week, prices climbed before just softening in preparation for more information on the trades being negotiated on by the Chinese and Trump. The futures have come off and shippers are waiting for the import quotas to be released for Chinese Mills. The next two weeks will be quite telling on where the season’s ahead bale prices will sit. Today’s prices are at $610 for 2018, $620 2019, $590 2020 and $525/bale for 2021 and 2022(at time of writing). Currencies are also dancing a fine line on what this Friday will bring, the Aussie is staying relatively calm at $0.740.

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