AgVantage Commodities Market Report 21/09/2017

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Fact of the Day – Soybeans are an important ingredient for the production of crayons. In fact, one acre of soybeans can produce roughly 82,368 crayons.

With the weekend ahead forecasting above average temperatures of around 40 degrees in North Western New South Wales, it is quite difficult for many to find a silver lining for the 2017/18 season ahead. The heat matched with the burning winds throughout the days have been working their way west to east, which is continuing to take an extensive toll on crops across the region. This is also matched with the frosts that have been wreaking havoc on paddocks across the Central West as well. Internationally, the weather across the ocean is also one to watch with dryness seeming to ease with Argentina and Brazil to face some predicted wet weather.

New crop feed Wheat for January delivered in to the Downs is up and firm at just above $340 with current crop for October delivery at $335/mt. There continues to be moderate to strong demand for Barley and Sorghum which we have seen trending over the past weeks as prices also rise. Feed Barley delivered Downs for 16/17 season sits firm and just up on last weeks commented price today at $325, with 17/18 crop for January up as well for delivery in to the Downs priced at $330. Sorghum lingers just on the $305 mark for September and October delivery period in to the Darling Downs, where 17/18 Sorghum crop delivered Brisbane sits equally at $305.

For September in to early October, delivery for new crop prices in to the Gladstone and Mackay port zones have had a slight increase of $5 up to $960/mt. The premium for early delivery of new crop Chickpeas has enticed many growers in Central Queensland to offload some tonnage fresh off the header much like last season. The more southern delivery points such as the Darling Downs are priced for Oct/Nov at around the $900 (at time of writing) mark. Faba Beans as touched on last week are definitely coming to the forefront of most buyers and growers minds. With the season ahead struggling thus far, demand domestically as well as product suited for export is on the rise and prices will follow as well. Prices are still remaining at $255-70 Ex-Farm for now depending location from the Liverpool Plains heading north through Narrabri up in to the Downs in Southern Queensland.

The Cotton futures market came under only a little bit of pressure earlier this week, though this will not have a detrimental impact in the long run, especially with the focus on the upcoming US season. As we touched on last week, Cotton is still steady as the estimates released last week are pointing towards a higher yielding season compared to previous years. Bale prices are fluctuating only on a small degree as of late and are reasonably unchanged this week with 2018 cotton at $475 and 2019 cotton just below at the $450 mark. The Aussie dollar since last week’s comment has been quite uneventful with not too much to report (at time of writing today) the dollar sits at just above $0.80.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 14/09/2017

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Fact of the Day – Livestock farming feeds billions and employs over 1.3 billion people. That means about 1 in 5 people on Earth work in some aspect of the livestock farming.

As we hit the middle of September, spring is starting to show what’s in store for the coming months. Although there is still low temperatures forecasted for the remainder of the month, the low thirty degree days here and there are not helping the already dry season faced across the north western parts of the state. Hurricane has definitely been the word of the month so far with the US being battered from every angle for the past fortnight. The weather events have affected most parts of the commodity market up until yesterday when the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) were delivered. The data brought a much more improved yield estimate for global Soy Beans and Corn, though Wheat was projected to decrease more than first thought which pushed values slightly higher at the markets finish. Cotton was affected by the WASDE report with production elevated to a five year increase in yield.

The dry heat, cold frosty mornings and as well the strong windy days, we have been facing all the elements the past few weeks except for the most vital one, the WET!! With September spring rain being such a crucial element pre harvest, the market is being driven by what is expected from the crops quantity and quality wise. New crop feed Wheat for January delivered in to the Downs is up and firm at $335 with current crop for October delivery at $330/mt. Barley and Sorghum continue to be much more popular across the board with buyers in the domestic market. Feed Barley delivered Downs for 16/17 season sits strong and firm today at $320, with 17/18 crop for January delivery Downs priced at $325. Sorghum continues at just over the $300 mark for a September and October delivery period in to the Darling Downs.

As we have stated previously, harvest around the Central Queensland region has kicked off. For the time being we are yet to see any information in regards to quality and yield data, we expect that to slowly trickle out as more and more Chickpeas stumble across the many receival sites north of the border. For September in to early October, delivery for new crop prices in to Gladstone and Mackay port zones sit at $955/mt. The more southern delivery points such as the Darling Downs are priced for Oct/Nov at the $900 mark. Faba Beans are going hand in mouth with the current weather as graziers are seeking tonnage for feedlots and general paddocked stock for the continued dry period ahead. Prices are at $255-65 Ex-Farm depending location from the Plains heading north up in to the Downs, where export prices have been a lot quieter compared to previous weeks we have been seeing.

As touched on earlier, the WASDE report impacted the Cotton market through the expectations that the upcoming season would have an increased yield. Prices did take a tumble due to the world estimates but as well through the already heightened premiums seen due to the great unknown earlier this week (Hurricane Irma). These contributing factors have lanced bale prices down to $480 for 2018 cotton and 2019 cotton is twenty dollars below at around the $460 mark. The Australian dollar over the past week since our last comment has been slightly eventful with its jump north of the 81c mark for the first time in many years, but (at time of writing today) sits in the same position at $0.803.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 7/09/2017

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Fact of the Day – If all of the Cotton produced annually in the U.S. was used to make one product, such as blue jeans, it would be enough to produce around 5 billion pairs.

With September bringing forth a cool start to Spring, we are still yet to see any changes on the horizon for another wet September much like the one we experienced last year. Across North West New South Wales (NNSW) the conditions continue to dry out planted crops and impact the domestic market. Internationally, weather is proving to be more of a nuisance than anything else. Russia is set to have a promising yield in regards to their Wheat, though climate conditions could prove to impact export logistics throughout their bitter winter months. As we move across the globe, the United States have copped the brunt of Hurricane Harvey, though there is no respite in sight with Irma following closely behind. Even if Hurricane Irma does not make landfall, it still has the potential to damage one of the largest producing Cotton areas in the country with its torrential rain. How this effects prices will be told over the next 24 hours.

Demand across the grain markets has slowly been on the climb over the past few months now, mostly spurred on by weather conditions domestically and the harvest ahead. New crop feed Wheat for January delivered in to the Downs is up and firm at $335 with current crop for October delivery at $317. As of late there has been continuous notice in F1 Barley through the region seeing bids of $310 Downs for current and new crop. Sorghum is bidding at the $300 mark in to the Downs, though there is also demand for Ex-Farm options as well depending location for September and October – Buyers Call.

As Central Queensland growers have started to get the headers in to the paddock, we will start to see more of a demand for new crop chickpeas over the 16/17 season’s peas. This is due to the lighter colour and the lighter grain that is more sought after overseas when fresh from the paddock. Current crop 16/17 is fluctuating as of late with prices delivered Narrabri for September at $900. For September in to October delivery for new crop prices, Gladstone and Mackay port zones sit at $935/mt. Where more southern delivery points such as the Darling Downs are priced for Oct/Nov at the $900 mark. Faba Beans have been a bit quieter as of late, even though the dry weather will push the price, at the moment there is not a large amount of demand for September with buyers looking to spread tonnages over Sept/Oct/Nov with carry costs. Prices are floating at the $240-50 ex-Farm conditional on location and quality. Export bids have re-emerged at $260 delivered Narrabri for No.1 less $20 for No.2, this will in fact continue to drive the domestic demand and be more competitive at $250 ex-farm for No.3’s with a much lesser quality risk.

The market has been closely effected by international factors, especially in regards to the detrimental weather conditions around the U.S. The futures market across the board for Cotton have been excited due to the Hurricanes inevitable impact from Cuba towards the Mid-South states and this has pushed prices to sit at $510/bale for 2018 cotton and 2019 cotton is twenty dollars below at around the $490 mark. The Aussie dollar has also climbed back to its high and started the day at $0.804 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 17/08/2017

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Fact of the Day – The number of tractors on farms exceeds the number of horses and mules for the first time on this day in 1954. Interesting how now sixty odd years later we are on the brink of automated tractors and we can watch the technological advancements before our eyes throughout the agricultural industry.

As spring is only round the corner, we are beginning to remember the summer that has just been through this weeks raised temperatures. With the mercury reaching the high twenties and low thirties throughout the North West and strong winds adding the extra bite, it has instilled a sense of, is winter over already?, and is this the start of another brutal summer ahead? As the markets have slowly adjusted to the blindsiding that was the world’s agricultural supply and demand estimates last week (WASDE) we see welcome rain across the U.S with more set to fall which has arrived nicely to coincide with the preparation of growers planting their winter crops.

As we have touched on over the past few months, with the current weather conditions and what is forecasted, the demand will continue across most areas of the grain markets. New crop feed Wheat continues its low volatility by staying firm at $315 for January delivery in to the Darling Downs, whereas current crop sits at $305. As of late there has been continued interest in F1 Barley across the region seeing bids of $310 Downs and $300 Texas delivered. Sorghum this week is bidding $290 in to the Downs, though there is also demand for Ex-Farm options as well depending location for August and September – buyers call.

Chickpeas… like we stated last week, their state of limbo continues in a sense, though this week we are seeing a lot more interest in regards pricing ideas for both old  and new crop and the periods that are offered for delivery.  Not trying to plagiarise from our comments last week, though we do still firmly believe that the remainder of August is where we will learn a lot about what to expect with yields and demand across the market. Though now, as the sub-continent has become more alert to our current weather conditions this has shown a positive rally as of late to influence prices. For some buyers who are facing a short in product will also influence a spike in current prices in which should show growers that there is room for improvement to where prices currently sit, so holding off on new crop for a little longer couldn’t do any harm. Chickpeas for old crop have jumped nicely to $900 delivered Brisbane Port and $860 delivered Narrabri August/September buyers call. New crop for 17/18 has put out a lot more activity for pricing seeing bids at $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $825 Downs delivered.

Faba Beans have been a bit quieter as of late when compared to a fortnight ago, with buyers scooping up large tonnages across the region, interest seems to now be more focussed towards September delivery – buyers call. Prices hang on to stay firm at the $250-55 ex-Farm conditional on location and quality. Export bids have re-emerged at $260 delivered Narrabri for No.1 and 2, which keeps domestic demand competitive at $250 ex-farm for No.3’s with less quality risk. We believe there is value in holding off from new crop sales, but looking at making old crop sales if you have protein wheat. Faba beans are a sell at $250 ex-farm due to illiquidity of market and with new crop around the corner. Hold chickpeas for a while longer, and sell old crop Sorghum and Barley. We say this by working on the returns you have earned by holding on, you might want to consider going to the bank with some of these gains, and not playing Russian roulette with the weather – which of course could pay off, but is a higher risk. We know there are some that are saying sell everything at these values, but we challenge you to ask yourself what is their motivation for you to sell?

The market has continued to adapt to the figures from the WASDE as well in regards to Cotton production. Bids across the board for Cotton are at $485/bale for 2018 cotton and 2019 cotton is ten dollars below at around the $475 mark. We still see value for 2018 season cotton at $500 or better (for irrigated) depending on your existing sales program. The Aussie dollar dropped by around a quarter of a cent to open today at $0.783 (at time of writing), the weakening dollar has definitely played a role in how commodity pricing has been shaped over the past fortnight.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 10/08/2017

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The first week of August brought forward some welcome rain across Northern New South Wales (NNSW). With the Narrabri area receiving a comforting 20mm and a little less west of town there is still a large urgency for more as a the most recent fall will not be as beneficial without more of a follow up rain event. The weather brought a nice change to struggling crops and dusted the North West late Thursday evening then dispersed that Friday morning. From an international point of view the news coming out of Europe is conveying that the Wheat is above yield expectancy and in the US the spring Wheat harvest is more than underway which is a positive on both fronts.

As we look towards the new year of 2018, which as unsettling as it is, it is only just over four months away meaning harvest is even closer. With feed Wheat for delivery January 2018  Darling Downs coming off a fraction as of late, prices are at $320 as old/current crop stands firm at five dollars below at $315. Feed Barley has had a consistent fortnight with upholding its bids of $315 as Sorghum trails closely behind at $295 for August and September delivery Downs. Chickpeas… really not too much to say, if you have been following my comments over the past month or so, you would have noticed the slow decrease across the market which has left Chickpeas in a state of limbo. As touched on last week, with Australian Peas landing on the shores of India currently, the demand is quiet and supply yet to be stoked up again. August from my perspective will be interesting to watch, as we slowly creep towards September we are gaining more information on the yields to be expected as each day and weather event passes. Currently Chickpeas for old crop sit at $830 delivered Brisbane Port, New crop pricing is becoming a little more prevalent with bids at $700 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $720 Downs delivered. Faba Beans, with a large demand domestically over the past month has grasped a large quantity of remaining beans. Prices continue to stay firm at the $250-55 Ex-Farm depending location for the period of August and September.

Nearest Terminal Port (NTP) Prices have continued their run with not showing much fluctuation and keeping their hold as of recent times. APW multi grade new crop for 2017/18 sits at bids of $310 Newcastle. Queensland’s northern ports of Gladstone and Mackay stay just off that mark behind Newcastle displaying $295 and Brisbane at the high of $330. Gladstone and Mackay this week have contracted and are displaying numbers at $760 for new crop Chickpeas for October/November delivery period.

With Cotton having a slight rally this week there has been more interest in the market from a buyer’s perspective, especially for 2018 crop. Bids across the panel for Cotton are at $500/bale for 2018 cotton and 2019 cotton is still somewhat sound at $485/bale. The Aussie dollar has come back since its spike lately and today stands just under the $0.79 level.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 3/08/2017

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The wheat market has been largely influenced by dry weather conditions in Europe, Canada, North America and Australia. However, we must keep this in perspective that globally, wheat stocks are still comfortable, and it’s been Minneapolis Spring wheat that has led the charge in wheat prices, coupled with a hot and largely dry summer in the U.S which has also supported corn and soybeans. So it’s been the combination of weather on all three crops that has created the recent rally in prices. Whilst the market will continue to monitor corn and soybean conditions in this critical development period in the U.S, nearby forecasts for these areas are more favourable for crop development with cooler temperatures and some rain relief. This means that if weather improves, the heat will continue to come out of the American grain and oilseed markets which will effect Australian local values.

So what does this mean? It really means that if we could predict the weather (which of course we can’t) we could predict the price. But more importantly, if weather wasn’t the issue, grain prices would be much lower today. Therefore, we don’t advocate basing marketing decisions on the weather alone because that’s not a decision, it’s a punt! More important factors are managing ROI today verse production risk. Ones things more certain and that is protein wheat for the coming season will be sort after by both domestic millers and exporters. Therefore, we need to consider the following;

1.       Its largely been protein/spring wheat in North America that has driven a protein premium in the market & a dry weather market in Australia that has also driven our domestic market higher. Normally in an Australian drought we see ‘wheat become wheat’ such as feed wheat is priced the same as protein wheat. This year a premium is present for protein.

2.       If weather conditions in the U.S improve and Australia remains dry, wheat futures will weaken, but local basis will firm, keeping AUD/tonne prices supported. The elephant in the room is the AUD/USD. At $0.80, this is certainly taking the shine off AUD values and making Australian exports less competitive. On the positive side though, a weaker USD is also supportive to U.S exports and therefore U.S denominated futures markets. At the Australian Cotton Collective in Griffith this week, NAB forecast the AUD at $0.70 by the end of the year. They admitted that their forecast was well out & not likely – so at the end of the day no one knows what the dollar will do, so we must take this out of the decision making process.

3.       Domestic demand remains firm out of the feed grain sector, therefore, feed lots and millers will need to prevent a tight supply of grain in NSW & QLD from leaving the country. However, with the dry conditions (assuming they prevail based off BOM forecasts), NNSW and SQLD should produce more traditional higher protein wheat. Currently the spread between ASW1 & APH2 wheat delivered Darling Downs is $50/mt. This is where we think we could see a “double whammy” where the domestic market is forced higher as they have to pay an inflated basis (domestic weather premium + protein premium) to buy this wheat away from the export market. So whether you produce low protein or high protein wheat this year, it will be valuable assuming it remains dry.

4.       Chickpeas are experiencing a “standoff” between buyers and sellers at the moment. Australian supplies are arriving in the sub-continent as we write this, so demand is subdued. At the same time, Australian producers are experiencing a difficult growing season with a mild and dry winter to date, causing production uncertainty and therefore little selling appetite. We also think Pulse Australia’s production forecast of over 1million tonnes is extremely optimistic. We expect demand to return later in the year around September and the crop prospects will be clearer also, which will allow for greater price transparency.

What to do?

·         At the risk of sitting on the fence, unless you have production certainty, we would be sitting on our hands.

·         Wheat and barley to be stored on farm were possible to take advantage of flexibility with domestic and export container market.

·         Based on conditions closer to harvest, we recommend a more staggered marketing program if the weather is still dry like the selling of smaller parcels every 1 to 2 months.

·         If you have production certainty, you would need to have confidence on your quality to know what to sell as I don’t believe multi grade contracts offer value in grade spreads today, unless you were confident of producing APW1 only?

·         If you were confident of producing APW1 and were going to deliver to GrainCorp, you could look at taking some cover by offering at $290 to $300 from Narrabri to Darling Downs sites and $280 in central QLD sites.

·         If you think you will produce protein wheat, you can’t really sell fixed grade today, so you need to sit as the risks of getting this wrong could be huge.

·         Barley is the same for wheat in terms of the drivers domestically. If you were certain of production, again you could sell fixed grade, or look at a multi grade option around $320 delivered Darling Downs for January 2018.

·         Durum is certainly a hold for the time being. We usually don’t get durum liquidity until September/October when the northern hemisphere crop is known. Currently there is tight domestic supply & production concerns in Canada & I expect strong domestic & export interest this harvest.

·         Chickpeas are a hold due to the potential price swings that can be experienced. Due to recent seasonal pricing being well above current levels and production uncertainty for Australia, we think growers should hold off pricing new crop chickpeas as risks for market difference is high.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 20/07/2017

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With scattered showers dampening Northern New South Wales (NNSW) over the past week there has been a slight dusting of around 10-15mm but nothing to really influence positive growth at this much needed time of year. As frosts and dry windy weather continue across the state, it also continues to drive the demand across export and domestic markets. If we look beyond our borders in regards to climate conditions, we know that northern Europe has been struggling moisture wise, though the Italian and Spanish crops in Southern Europe also are being impacted just as much by the dry weather with reports of severe reduction in their seasons output. This is set to affect more than just grain with other food commodities taking a huge hit as well. The US is forecasted to face increased temperatures with moisture set to avoid the most desperate areas. The weather for now remains quite reassuring of strong basis and as stated last week conditions will continue to adversely impact the market supply.

As we look to new crop for feed wheat, it has continued its positive run due to the weather driving demand at home and abroad. With another jump in the past seven days growers will see bids of $345 delivered Darling Downs for January and current crop feed wheat is very much in the same boat showing prices of $335. F1 feed Barley continues to linger around with prices at the $315 mark. Sorghum again has followed closely trailing just behind at $290 for delivery in to the Downs July 2017. Chickpeas are showing some spark though with recent weather conditions or lack of, it forces the market to be fairly steady on what is to be expected yield wise this coming season. Last week I labelled the Chickpea market placid, I will stick to my guns on this one as July does not seem like the month for anything too exciting. Brisbane Port delivered for July in to August is where bids remain firm at $965. For new crop peas, nothing to really alter from previous bids over the past 10-12 days as $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $840 Brisbane delivered for September in to the following months seem to be where the market is staying firm. Now talking Faba Beans, they brought some excitement as the market decided to make a progressive move price wise. As the demand has slightly diminished over the last couple of days due to scattered showers, we are still definitely on track for Faba’s to continue their promising rise. Prices are being seen at the $240-45 mark Ex-Farm depending location for July and August pick up, and the domestic market seems to be the most interested in Faba’s as of late.

In regards to Nearest Terminal Port (NTP) Prices, APW multi grade new crop for 2017/18 sits at bids of $315 Newcastle. Gladstone and Mackay ports follow closely behind Newcastle showing $300 and Brisbane leaping another $5 with a more than adequate price of $345. Queensland ports Gladstone and Mackay at the moment are bringing prices of $865 for new crop Chickpeas, NNSW main port of Newcastle follows the northern ports at the same September/October delivery period. Sorghum for delivered port remains quite steady though still on the slow climb with prices ranging between $280-90 for Brisbane and Newcastle.

Cotton has definitely come off the mind of the commodity market as the season came to an end and as grain continues to show its strengths. In the United States cotton crops are looking favourable with no signs of any unpredicted events to occur, though this can also change as December futures are quite volatile to any progress reports that may come out. Bids across the board for Cotton are stable at $520/bale for 2017 cotton and 2018 cotton is still relatively established at $490/bale. The Aussie dollar against the green back has continued its hike and looks like it is settling between the 0.78-80 cent margin, as of today the AUD stands slightly over the $0.79 level.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 13/07/2017

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As stated previously in passing weeks, winter is beginning to take its toll on most aspects across the state of New South Wales. With temperatures barely reaching maximums of twenty degrees during the day throughout the north and lows recorded of 5 below zero, this is not doing any wonders for emerging crops. Any rain that was hoped for seems to have dispersed and the only thing hitting the ground now is solid frost. July is characteristically quite impulsive for weather conditions, and international crop marketplaces, and it seems that this year is not going to break tradition. On an international scale, rain across the United States’ Corn Belt and in Western Canada has continued to keep the crop progress quite firm at a good to excellent level. There are a few anxious individuals that seem to expect some abstract shifts in advance to this evening’s USDA WASDE report, the data gathered from the WASDE report should have its typical influences across the board but also not change too many minds just yet. I feel it is more likely that the report will emphasis that the weather conditions will just continue to adversely impact the market supply.

2018 feed Wheat has positively kept its strengths that it has been drawing from over the past month. Prices of $340 delivered Darling Downs for January are up from last week with prompt delivery bids showing $325 which is a very nice increase in just under 5 days. F1 feed Barley cracks $300 with Sorghum only trailing by $15 at $285 for August/September Downs Delivery 2017. In regards to Chickpeas, there is little to report, as we continue to check the forecasts for weather and keep eyes on the peas evolving from planting, the prices have stayed quite placid. $965 delivered Brisbane Port for July in to August is where bids remain firm. 2017/18 bids for Chickpeas still remain unmoved significantly showing at the mark of $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $870 delivered Brisbane for September and early October. Faba Beans were traded this week west of Narrabri for No. 3’s or better at $245 Ex-Farm for Jul/Aug pick-up for buyers call and as well west of Moree at $250 for the same delivery period. All parcels were for the domestic market. This shows that the current weather is having quite the impact and is a major driving force behind the market as of late.

APW multi grade for 2018 NTP Newcastle climbs again this week even though not by too much, it is still a very comforting sign at the mid $330’s. Gladstone and Mackay have also shown nice improvement with an increase of $10 showing at $300 and Brisbane jumping another $20 for NTP price of $340. The Queensland ports of Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay for new crop Chickpeas are at $850 with Newcastle Port coming in at the same price for New South Wales for September/October delivery. Sorghum, as for Brisbane and Newcastle NTP prices are strong with ranging prices from $280-90.

Cotton remains quiet as grains take centre stage of the market show it seems. Values are not too inconsistent and continue their same streak as previous weeks have shown, with bids at $525/bale for 2017 cotton. For the 2018 season cotton it is still quite settled at a price of $490/bale. The Aussie dollar is still staying quite high and has barely altered in the past fortnight and at the moment isn’t showing any signs of shifting from just above $0.76 today.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 6/07/2017

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The second half of the year has now kicked off with July, and Mother Nature has sure let us know that winter is well and truly upon us with a very fresh frosty start on the weekend just been. Northern New South Wales (NNSW) was lucky enough to see some rain last week though it was almost gone before it arrived for some areas. Narrabri, Moree and towards the east saw a healthy 30-35mm around the towns last week, where the volume quickly deteriorated the further west you went with Rowena halving the amount of what the strip of the Newell Highway received. It’s nothing too tremendous but it is a start to what will be the season ahead. The days are bringing high teens but the nights are dropping to only a couple of degrees above freezing.

The weather abroad has driven the export demand as there is not much faith in Canada and the US seeing any positive wether events in the near future. We can say the same thing domestically as there has been some moisture spread around, though here hasn’t been enough to impact the market heavily. Canada had its national day on Monday which was then followed by the US holiday that is Independence Day or the 4th of July celebrations which has especially come round quickly this year. This meant that numerous futures exchanges were shut and closed for the days trading implying that there is a smaller amount to report than normal.

As the market has had an exciting start to the month across the board, the opportunity for growers to offer a price that is a little more expensive than bids is not out of the question. With rising prices, bids seem to be there as a bench mark, but an offer of that little more is definitely not going to be ignored or unnoticed. Where growers stand at the moment is being able to offer the increased price but also have the choice to play the wait and watch game, which is showing very beneficial for some players.

Feed Wheat for January 2018 has become extremely attractive by jumping $20 since last week as dry weather continues to drive demand at $320 delivered Darling Downs. For bids in this current time, you are looking again at a nice increased price of $310. F1 feed Barley at a positive of $290 with Sorghum bids delivered Downs are sturdier at $280/mt for August 2017. Chickpeas continue their strength holding at the continuous levels for the past fortnight at $920/mt delivered Narrabri, or $965 Darling Downs for July delivery. 2017/18 chickpea bids haven’t had much movement and continue their sheepish prices at $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $850 Darling Downs for September and early October delivery. Faba beans have had some more energy with Ex-Farm parcels being quite prevalent with the recent rise in price. Values are at $210-15 Ex-Farm around the Narrabri/Moree area and $220 Downs.

2018 multi grade APW NTP Newcastle just keeps outdoing itself week in and week out with an appealing spike of roughly $20 sitting at $310-15 and Gladstone and Mackay sitting at $292 and Brisbane $320. Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay NTP for Chickpeas are at $920 followed by Newcastle at $850 for September/October delivery. Sorghum prices for Brisbane and Newcastle NTP are strong at the mid $280’s.

Cotton continues to be not so much at the forefront of the picture, though the USDA did also minimise the cotton planting forecast which has only raised some eyebrows at most. Prices are not fluctuating much and have been a bit static as of late you could say. It is $525/bale for current crop, with new crop for the 2018 season at a price of $490. The Australian dollar’s decline is really the only one across the currencies as competitiveness continues to rise. The AUD is trading at just above $0.76 today.

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 29/06/2017

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As we are quickly approaching the downhill run of 2017 with only a couple more days left of June as well as the financial year, this has brought a predicted forecast of some welcome rain around Northern NSW (NNSW). Today the forecast is projecting a nice change of 20-40mm but I wouldn’t suggest holding your breath just yet. Here’s hoping it hits all the right places, which is pretty much the whole region at the moment. The weather as of late has had a lesser winter impact on the area with days heating up to the mid 20’s, though the weekend ahead is showing a bitter change which is sure to bring a nice welcome to what seems to be a chilly July ahead. In the US the rain like usual has typically evaded the thirstiest parts, this increases the impact of pressure on the pastures and winter and summer crops, even though the temperatures have been lower.

Modifications in USDA crop progress report were reassuring of the offshore markets helping the prices stay in the green despite the slight drop on the good to excellent rated crop. Feed Wheat for January 2018 remains at the high it climbed to last week at $300/mt delivered Darling Downs. Prompt bids at the moment stand at the high $285-90’s. F1 feed Barley has again kept slowly climbing over the past week bidding at $5 higher at the $275 mark. Sorghum, continues its firm rise hitching a ride upwards with the Wheat and Barley prices, the bids seen delivered Downs are stronger at $275-80/mt for August 2017. Chickpeas continue their sub $1000 levels from earlier in the month and have kept firm at $950/mt delivered Narrabri, or $965 Darling Downs for July delivery. Ramadan has now come to a conclusion and we sit, watch and wait to see how the market reacts in regards to Chickpea demand abroad. 2017/18 chickpea bids have fluctuated minimally and continue generally unscathed currently at $800 delivered Oct/Nov Narrabri and $850 Darling Downs for September and early October delivery. Faba beans have had some activity in regards to Ex-Farm parcels, though there is still not enough of a firing market to warrant a large lift in price out of the blue just yet. Values such as $205 Ex-Farm around the Narrabri/Moree area and $210 Downs seem to be as exciting as it gets for time being. 2018 multi grade APW NTP Newcastle has showed its worth and lifted $5 this week and bidding firm at the $290 mark.

Cotton has remained at its low from the previous weeks fall. Prices are not much to jump up and down about but continue reasonably strong at $525/bale for current crop, with new crop for the 2018 season at a mark of $495-$500. The US Dollar was more solid alongside majority of the further agri‑exporter currencies early this week.  The Euro has come to the forefront of the exchange rallying up to its peak level since August 2016 and the AUD/USD continues to hold its place at just over the $0.76 level.

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