AgVantage Commodities Market Report 13/12/2018

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Fact of the Day – The late George H. W. Bush, was not only the 41stPresident of the United States, but also was the father of the 43rdPresident George W. Bush. He enlisted in the U.S Navy when he was 18 years old, was the youngest aviator in the U.S Navy and continued to serve in the Navy till the end of World War II, leaving in 1945 as a decorated pilot who flew 58 combat missions.

This week looks to be bring a festive change with significant rain forecasted across Northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland. Falls of 10-60mm have already fallen this afternoon around the Narrabri and Moree area. This rain although welcome, will also be a tremendous spark for the current summer crops that are in dire need of a drink, especially at this crucial development period. Sorghum prices have definitely softened up over the last 7 days, this can be really put down to anticipation of the moisture on its way, it is also a pleasing trade-off for growers as a hit in pricing is easier to swallow when crop production is increased due to late December showers. Even though the lack of moisture is more than obvious, the subdued heat has been more of a saving grace than we first anticipated, if we were to face another early summer like 2018, current crops would near be rendered useless. Weather outlooks appear to portray that our regions will escape noteworthy heat until the New Year…. Here’s hoping!

With the Christmas break approaching, majority of buyers in the pulse market, specifically Chickpeas have now closed their 2018 book for purchases as they now focus on 2019. As overseas interest is dwindling, this really doesn’t come as a surprise as January and February are traditionally the more active months for our main importers. As India are still very much doing their own thing, we must watch Pakistan’s, Bangladesh’s and the Middle East’s season and how their projected production is looking. With current reports stating their crops, to a certain degree are looking dismal, this will then create a higher demand for Australian peas, more so as these buyers look to stock up before the fasting period of Ramadan in May. Currently New Year crop is priced at $900 Downs for Jan/Feb and $880 Narrabri for Dec/Jan. Old crop still holds its gains though currently no immediate demand is sought for the remainder of 2018, $830 Narrabri Jan/Feb is the strongest seen at time of writing.

This week we have seen positive progress on 2019 bale prices as well as for 2020. Though this could potentially deteriorate depending on how current overseas relationships blossom. With China agreeing last month to promptly buy the US’ agricultural goods, especially cotton, this could very much drop the basis here at home. If the Chinese were to shift to predominantly American cotton, it forces our supply to take quite a hit. As I have said over the past few months regarding this trade war, watch this space! Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $6202020 $592 and $542/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 6/12/2018

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Fact of the Day – World Soil Day (WSD) is held annually on the 5thof December. The reasoning is for a means to focus attention on the importance of healthy soil and advocating for the sustainable management of all soil resources.

No substantial rain has occurred in the last week, though there has been increasingly warmer and windier days, with the next week to be not so different. So far we have escaped a very warm November looking back on last years, though now December is here, above 35 degrees are looking to be the norm until the New Year, at least. With summer set to be no different heat wise, the already lack of rain around the area, specifically the Downs is being reflected through the current Sorghum prices. Ex-farm pricing for the Moree/Goondi area has been floating at the $340-350 level, though for growers on the Plains, the $380-$385 in to Newcastle is also just as appealing. Marketing of new crop is quite delicate at the moment considering the production uncertainty and the tough January and February we could potentially face.

The summit over the weekend in Buenos Aires was stirring, but did not resolve as much as we had hoped, especially on the topic of tariffs. Specifically touching on Chinese and US relations, the back and forward of taxing has looked to have stopped with the leaders looking to resolve the mess in a proposed 90 day window. The whole scenario was a bit anti climatic, but China has agreed to purchase an important amount of US products, with agriculture goods commencing immediately. This is to reduce the current trade imbalance. None the less, it is positive progress for getting the relationship back on track heading in to 2019.

As stated last week, overseas demand has subsided on buying both our old and new crop Chickpeas. Bangladesh still have wavering demand, and with Pakistan’s currency being devalued by about 5%, this has altered their current margins and they will struggle to put forward  bids as competitive as we are seeing now. Weather in India and Pakistan is dire looking upon their prime growing regions. Pakistan is more crucial, as December outlook is very bleak rain wise. Most buyers out of warehousing and certain sites have withheld themselves from the market this week until there is increased buying interest overseas. Container packers are keeping their bids more competitive for now as boxes and trains still are needing to be filled. This has been reflected in this week’s market prices with new peas bid Narrabri $880/mt, old at $830/mt, and the Downs $900/mt for a January delivery. Buying interest around most sites is also decreasing as we head in to the festive season.

Cotton futures have made positive gains day on day this week, though the advances have not been as impressive as we are currently hoping for. With trade talks still in limbo with the US and China, we wait anxiously on the outcome and how it will impact the market and more importantly, our bale prices here at home. Hot and windy conditions continue across the main growing regions with a harsh December looking to take incoming plants to task. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $6212020 $590 and $535/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 29/11/2018

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Fact of the Day – Stephanie Gilmore has won her seventh world surfing title after finishing on top of the season ending Pro event yesterday in Maui, Hawaii. This win has tied her with fellow Australian Layne Beachley for most women’s world titles. Gilmore downplayed if Kelly Slater’s record of 11 titles was next on her agenda.

Scattered showers have draped across the North West and plains, with the amount intensifying the further south and closer to Sydney you go. The Liverpool Plains and hunter have received about 10-15mm, with Sydney copping a horrific downfall of over 110mm in the past 24 hours. The northern border regions, although still aching for more, are happy with the recent falls as they gave summer crops and grazing country a well needed drink. The mercury is set to be knocking on 40’s door this weekend which should quickly dry up the water still lying on the sides of the road. Lack of rain received in the Darling Downs has forged a strong rally for new crop sorghum, with market prices jumping $10-15/mt since the start of the week. As we now have Sorghum crops across all stages, we will also see further plantings across the region with harvest/delivery periods stretching from late January out to May of next year. Wheat and barley markets are steady as there is still significant supply around the area when considering the season and year we have had.

As I have been building up to the last fortnight, the G20 summit is looking to be set for a showdown for a large amount of the countries attending. We have the Chinese and US trade war that is only becoming more tense prior to the required talks between the two heads of state. Australia also has their own quarrel to discuss with the Chinese on the barley anti-dumping probe that was brought forward last week. Then, the most heated topic of recent days is the military action evolving between Russia and the Ukraine around Crimea, this I figure will be addressed between President Trump and Putin, with Trump speaking on behalf of President Poroshenko. With Ukraine looking to enforce martial law in retaliation to the Russian navy firing upon and seizing Ukrainian war ships on Saturday, this will play a role in how the export market reacts to the closure of required shipping lanes. Once again, watch this space….

Chickpeas have been quite dormant the past week, though still haven’t taken a backwards step from their recent highs. Quality seems to be the only problem besides the dwindling yield, with defects and splits creating most of the hassle for growers, forcing them to incorporate grading fees and discounts for more leeway on specifications. With both old and new crop still being sought after, selling demand is still very minimal due to prices just not satisfying grower targets for now.

Indicative Pricing

CHKP 17/18

CHKP 18/19

Brisbane FIS

$810/mt

$905/mt (Jan/Feb)

Downs Oakey

$790/mt

$890/mt

Goondiwindi

$800/mt

$865/mt

Narrabri

$770/mt

$870/mt

Wee Waa

$765/mt

$855/mt

Monday we saw cotton futures rally, though that was quickly pulled from underneath us with Tuesdays losses. For now the market is quite static with low investor interest, as well as uncertainty on global production and this weekend’s possible summit outcomes. We don’t expect anything too exciting this week price wise, though next week could be make or break depending on any newfound Chinese and US relations, let’s hope for a Christmas miracle. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $6042020 $590 and $536/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 22/11/2018

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Fact of the Day – Each year, the president of the U.S pardons a turkey and spares it from being eaten for Thanksgiving dinner. The first turkey pardon ceremony started with President Truman in 1947. President Obama pardoned a 45-pound turkey named Courage, who was flown to Disneyland and served as Grand Marshal of the park’s Thanksgiving Day parade!

Mid-week rain swooped across the Upper Hunter, Liverpool Plains and the North West, with falls varying but no figures to report currently as it continues to pour whilst writing. The early weeks of November weren’t as harsh as weeks prior, though they were warm enough to add to already struggling summer crops. If this rain continues, even at intervals, we should expect an increased plant heading in to the New Year to take advantage of improved soil moisture, plus improved crop conditions. With rain being a positive, the negative of the week has been the allegations from the Chinese as they launch an anti-dumping probe into Australian Barley exports. This news has understandably shocked and softened the market per se, with many already jumping to conclusions that this is a retaliation to Australia siding with the US over security measures in the south pacific sea. Like most things in this day and age, politics will always have an influence, and for now it seems like that’s the case with reports saying that this has been in the works for some time. Though it could also be an instance of Australia being in the wrong which could also be more than possible, only time will tell. How this plays out for both parties will no doubt be addressed heavily at the G20 summit next week. Oil prices have slid further down and at the lowest of the year, so keep enjoying these lower fuel prices.

Touching on last week’s section on chickpeas, we are now at much higher prices around the region for both old and new crop. Even though the DCT market is a little softer, packers and buyers are still more than keen to pay a premium to get tonnes moving through the gates. This season crop seems to be having some trouble with quality in regards to some mould, off colour and high defects due to such dry peas splitting. Though there are avenues for off spec grain at discount whether it be delivered in to Narrabri, Goondiwindi or the Downs. Faba’s for new crop have dropped by twenty dollars and sitting at $760 for top grade, with last season’s beans priced at $630 ex-farm dependant on location.

Indicative Pricing

CHKP 17/18

CHKP 18/19

Brisbane FIS

$810/mt

$915/mt (Jan/Feb)

Downs Oakey

$800/mt

$900/mt

Goondiwindi

$785/mt

$880/mt

Narrabri

$790/mt

$880/mt

Wee Waa

$765/mt

$850/mt

Cotton futures have continued to drop away over the past week and have struggled to make back those losses. We don’t expect any changes for the remainder of the week with markets closed due to the Thanksgiving national holiday. We should have some more information to work with come summit time next week. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $603, 2020 $595 and $530/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 15/11/2018

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Fact of the Day – The Flanders poppy was one of the first plants to grow on the blood-soaked battlefields of France and Belgium. In nineteenth century English poetry, poppies often symbolised sleep or oblivion. After WWI, silk poppies were sold on Rememberance Day with proceeds going to a charity for French children and to the Returned Soldiers League (RSL).

Scattered showers and cooler days over the past week have been a more than welcome site, though there is still an abundance of moisture still needed for struggling summer crops. Even though the outlook appears grim, with current harvest coming to an end, there is still more time up growers sleeves to reap a degree of reward from the sorghum and cotton crops in months ahead. The sorghum market has softened in the last week with scattered rain and cool weather playing its part and cotton has been quite bearish too. As Guns N’ Roses put it “we can still find a way, cause nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain”, now it’s not directly applicable, but we get the gist, a hope of an ending drought and continuous rain to end the year. Across the seas, oil prices have plunged for yet another session, with prices down by $20/barrel. This is due to a number of factors, one being Trump chasing lower prices and no cuts to production in retaliation to OPEC’s reports on decreasing their output of barrels per day. This also does impact the corn market in regards to their ethanol. Trump, supply, a murdered Saudi journalist and OPEC are all what will influences the market, but more importantly, our fuel prices here at home, so fill up today!

Marketing your pulses is definitely worth the thought as we are closing in on the end of the 2018 year and season. In regards to old crop, the market buyers (Pakistan, Bangladesh and Middle East) are still chasing tonnes for export, and this has been shown through the $120/mt increase in price over the past ten days. Narrabri delivery is bid at $770/mt with the Downs bid more competitively at $780/mt. The old/new crop spread has now shifted, minimising the gap by $100/mt and stands between $20-$30/mt, dependant on location. New crop is priced at $820 Narrabri and $835 Oakey. To put it bluntly, the season has been quite disappointing, though if history is on our side, we should expect to see demand pick up further as we move in to first few months of 2019. Faba beans continue to fair strongly, with bids of 18/19 season top grade beans at $780 delivered Narrabri, old crop remains floating at the $630 ex-farm level for now.

Cotton futures have had a consecutive loss over the past three days, this is purely put down to small weather concerns and lack of investor selling. For now, across prime growing areas, irrigating and planting is still in full swing, and doesn’t look to be slowing down with more disappointing forecasts. Though, as I stated last week, the market will look for guidance in the coming weeks from the G20 summit. Hopefully some constructive negotiations between China and the US are signed off on to put this trade war to bed. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $605, 2020 $600 and $530/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 8/11/2018

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Fact of the Day – Cross Counter’s thrilling Melbourne Cup win finally put an end to 26 years of heartbreak for Sheikh Mohammed’s famous Godolphin stables. His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum is the prime minister and vice-president of the United Arab Emirates and the Emir, or ruler, of Dubai and now a Melbourne Cup winner.

International markets are being watched closely this week, with more than enough happening his month and next to impact our grain prices here at home. Firstly, the WASDE report is due out Thursday evening which will shed some needed light on how current estimates are placed on a domestic and global scale. Secondly, the G20 summit in Argentina is set for later in the month, although many crucial matters will be touched on, the main focus for most will be Chinese and US trade negotiations. A recent phone call between the two leaders had a positive outcome, with both heads of state confident that there would be a mutually beneficial trade settlement agreed upon. Cotton and Sorghum markets will have most at stake during this summit. Finally, the mid-term US election, it has been two years since Trump was voted in and election results are still trickling through. Though the Democrats are still looking to hold their seat swing, whereas the Republicans are tipped to hold on to the senate once again. The remainder of the year is looking to be quite exciting in terms of global markets and international trade.

Northern NSW and Southern Queensland crops copped an atrocious start to the week, with 40 plus temperatures and some wicked winds to add salt to the wound. For the planted summer crops, there is a dire need for follow up rain, just to balance the harsh conditions faced, as well as what the remainder of the year brings also heat wise. Scattered showers are forecasted for NNSW and the plains, though yet to hear of any substantial falls just yet. Sorghum has had a positive rise this week, it is a good time to look at locking in a guaranteed minimum price (GMP) to provide a secure price and also to have the option of riding the market rally’s this season. General harvest reports continue to file through with most wheat holding protein levels, though screenings appearing to be a problem for some. So far wheat quality has ranged from APH1 down to HPS1 (high protein screenings). There is also still looking to be a healthy amount of straw cut for bales (Wheat, Barley) which is looking for homes in to lot feeders and graziers around the area. Majority of growers around the region look to be finished by the end of the month or earlier.

Chickpeas have had a well-deserved spike this week, this rally created buying interest for Pakistan, Bangladesh and parts of the Middle East. It is a good start, though we mustn’t be quick to forget the large stockpile of chana that the Indians are sitting on. New crop Downs and Narrabri prices were back up to the $800 level, warehousing sites such as Goondiwindi, Wee Waa, Trangie, Belahna and Bengalala all sat up at $770/mt delivered site. Today there old crop demand has also surprisingly been heightened, this throws out some of the buyer’s colour and weight issues that we have been hearing over the last month. Last season’s chiccies are looking at about $100/mt less than current crop, though definitely worth a thought due to previous market prices over the past year.

Cotton has not shared the same amount of movement compared to grains this week. The market has been snoozy you could say, purely floating in a state of limbo as futures have their rises and falls, seemingly cancelling one another out. For now there isn’t a huge amount of selling interest, due to harsh growing conditions across the North West and very minimal follow up rain. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $615, 2020 $600 and $540/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 1/11/2018

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Fact of the Day – After Monday’s World Series victory for the Red Sox, Boston is now the undisputed title town of the 21st century. Since 2001 the city of Boston has won 5 NFL Super Bowls (Patriots), 4 MLB World Series (Red Sox), 1 NBA Championship (Celtics) and a NHL Stanley Cup (Bruins).

November is now upon us and so is the 2018/19 harvest period. Reports from CQ all the way down to the North West show there has been positive news on yields and quality, though we all know with the good comes some bad. Most cereals are underway around the region, give or take a few areas that are just not fully developed. Temperatures are set to hit the big 40 this weekend to kick off the last month of spring. This heat will definitely take its toll on both unharvested grain, as well as summer crops already in the ground, such as dry land cotton and early Sorghum. On a global market scale, President Trump is threatening more heightened tariffs to escalate the already damaging trade war between the two super powers. They expect to increase these tariffs by 10-25% come January. This tiff should be monitored closely, as it could really impact our sorghum market if China look to us to supply once again. The European season is also facing harsh conditions much like the Australian season, though France looks to have a stronghold on the market by supporting current wheat values.

Quality wise, wheat now being stripped is fairing reasonably well with Intel from growers and over the weighbridge stating there is no trouble with high protein and test weights so far this season. Though in saying that, we will learn much more day by day as more and more grain is stripped throughout the border regions heading south to the plains. Prime hard wheat is bid in to Narrabri at $470/mt, with also the option of multi grade contracts to include decreased/heightened protein and/or screenings. Demand for barley is still very much subdued since we reached those high prices in August. There was increased demand and low supply but since then, it has shifted completely. Recent trades show new crop F1 bid indicatively at $430 ex-farm Narrabri and surrounding areas.

Fabas have had a very appealing few days, last week we spoke on #1 beans in to Narrabri, since then they have now jumped fifty dollars to $800/mt for November delivery. This is mainly due to such a supply of poor quality feed grade Fabas over the last year. On top of this you have two very small seasons in a row for the pulse which also pushes those prices onwards and upwards. #2s and #3s are at a $20/$40 discount also, that’s over $500/mt above where we stood a year ago. Where we touched on Chickpeas last week, the overseas demand is still pretty well not evident, though we expect the market to rally in to the New Year as Bangladesh will have to purchase tones regardless to fill their own demand. Prices today stand at $780 for new crop delivered in to the Downs and Narrabri, with warehousing and multi grades (CHKPM) also of great interest to growers. Old crop peas hold their own at $680 delivered Wee Waa, Trangie and Goondiwindi.

Working off last week’s ups and downs of the cotton market, this week has been fairly lacklustre to say the least, with trading movements very low for now. Weather in the US is now much of a lesser concern, along with crop progress here at home with some decent falls lately to kick along soil profiles. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $616, 2020 $595 and $535/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 25/10/2018

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Fact of the Day – Antarctica, on average, is the coldest, driest, and windiest continent on earth. It is also considered a desert, with annual precipitation of only 200 mm, along the coast and far less inland.

This time next week we will be in to November, and for now, it’s not looking to be another cool spring month. Temperatures are already hitting the mid-thirties, though for now it isn’t too stressful considering the scattered falls we have had as of late ranging from the central west up to the Downs. For now we stand in the twilight zone in regards to summer crops. Sorghum is rallying and softening day by day, based on current moisture conditions and who is planting what, where and how much. Cotton planting is also underway, with most growers happy with their current soil profiles for the season ahead. Mungbeans are also looking to be an alternative for those considering to take advantage of recent falls.

Headers are now rolling in to paddocks to get a gauge on what quality and quantity is like after the last month of welcomed rain. From Moree south, there is not an abundance of Sorghum looking to be planted, as some areas just haven’t had what the border regions received rain wise. With the planting window closing heading in to November, those who choose to hold off will not look to plant till later in the year and try to bank on some later summer rain. As for how the Chicago trade is tracking, the futures have climbed overnight on the back of reports we may produce the lowest tonnes this season of our last ten. The next few weeks will be more than telling once there is more info on the southern cropping areas progression (Victoria, South Australia).

Early reports from growers getting in to their Faba beans are quite positive. It seems the beans are in great shape, it’s just a matter of foreign material and splits that are letting them down from the top grade, though feed Faba demand is still high, even if the beans are from either of the last 3 seasons. Grading may be an option for some, if chasing the export market of $750 for #1’s less twenty dollars for #2’s. Chickpeas continue their lacklustre form with the market softening more this week on both new and old crop. On an international demand point of view, Bangladesh are our only suitors and they know this and are playing the game accordingly. Pakistan is buying straight out of Africa for about a $70 discount, Nepal are not in the market and the sub-continent still are keeping to themselves domestically. For now both markets are quiet, and the $800 levels for new crop being bid are looking even more appealing when taking in to account how the last twelve months have served us.

Cotton has had a rollercoaster of a week so far, prices from last week to now have moved from $625 to $645 in just a few days of trading. The factors that have made most of the impact are Hurricane Michael that is over the southern states, and current rain around Texas, forcing picking to slow down and heightening quality concern. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $636, 2020 $595 and $540/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 18/10/2018

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Fact of the Day – Earlier this week Paul Allen passed away, Allen was the co-founder of Microsoft, an American business magnate and philanthropist. He owned the NFL’s Super Bowl champions, Seattle Seahawks and the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers. Allen also spent a lot of time on his 414-foot yacht worth $200 million equipped with a recording studio, two helipads, two submarines run by a crew of 60 and oh so much more.

Even though the humidity is not a welcome change, the rain definitely is. Now it’s not the 500ml that the east coast got over the last 10 days, but it is certainly a start. The falls have been scattered, though the gap between them is what’s decreasing, with forecasted drops for the rest of the week. Depending on quantity, this will affect some harvest plans, but for most it is a more than welcome to finish off the later planted crops and ahead of current summer plantings. The overseas market isn’t impacting our prices here at home by too much, all demand still is looking to be domestic for the time being.

Sorghum is where most are showing considerable interest at the moment. With the on and off rain alongside the planting period now upon us, both traders and growers are interested to see where markets sit themselves in the coming weeks. New crop Sorghum is bid for March, April and May at $370 delivered Downs and XF LPP, Newcastle track is at $390. For now we should see a solid plant around the Southern Downs, border regions in NSW and the Liverpool Plains weather permitting, though whilst China aren’t showing too much interest, the demand will stay at home for graziers and lot feeders. Old crop is firm at $420 delivered in to the Downs market zone. Whilst most grains for stock feed have been quite exuberant understandably, new and innovative alternatives are being sourced to ease the pressure on finances. Almond hulls, palm kernel expeller, straws, hay and other by-products of traditional feed have been used and still holding their own in regards to nutritional value and accessibility as cheaper substitutes.

Pulses are becoming of more interest heading in to the November period as more and more reports trickle through the grapevine on current yields and quality. Obviously the fresher and lighter Chickpeas are sought after at a premium, though when the new crop influx starts to settle or finish, there is still going to be a need for peas regardless. We expect old crop to take the back seat for now and not move much until the new year though, we must remember at any moment India could come back in to the market and drive our prices north (here’s hoping). For now we have old crop set at $740 Narrabri and $770 Downs, with 18/19 crop holding strong just above the $805 mark. Fabas will continue to be chased for export and stock feed regardless of the season. Recent trades indicate feed Fabas at $620-30 (depending location) and new crop top grade beans at $750 Narrabri.

The recent rain is a fantastic sign heading in to planting for this year’s Cotton if it sticks around. Whether it be dry land or irrigated it is a positive start when looking back on the last 10 grim months. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $625, 2020 $593 and $535/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

AgVantage Commodities Market Report 11/10/2018

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Fact of the Day – On the weekend we saw Craig Lowndes win the great race (Bathurst 1000) for his 7th time, his second with co-driver Steven Richards. It was Lowndes’ last race around Mount Panorama as a full time driver, with him taking a secondary driver seat in 2019.

Russia still holds the headlines this week, both in and out of the octagon. Leaving UFC aside for now, the current word out of the superpower is that they are hustling and bustling to transfer grain to move ahead of any imposed deadlines placed on the industry by the government. How this plays out this month will be interesting as there is still a fair chunk of supply moving around the black sea region also. Rain is hitting the plains across the US which will only be helpful heading in to the New Year, along with the hurricane taking on Georgia and Alabama cotton areas in coming days. American weather is one to watch heading in to the backend of the week. The AUD came back on last week’s low, holding today above the $0.71 mark.

Summer like storms continue to swirl around the North West, with parts of the Hunter and Liverpool Plains receiving heavy falls. Harvest is just kicking in to gear around Queensland and south as all buyers are eager to see how they are tracking thus far. Some early reports look to show higher than anticipated moisture in cereals, but nothing too extreme as of yet and not too much trouble in regards to quality (Protein, Screenings, Test Weight). The next few weeks will be more than telling as majority of crops will be near all but stripped in the next month or so. Prices for now, are all over the shop to a certain degree, we are currently in a state of limbo where old crop and new crop are just about to pass one another, but for now it’s difficult to get your hands on either price respective. With the week almost done, we are seeing the market soften over all grain markets, just as these forecasted showers with not much in them make their way around the North West and Southern Downs.

Chickpeas have not moved too far from their recent mark. Current stock is priced at $750 Narrabri and $760 Downs, where new crop is bid at $805-810 for either of said market zones. The next few months could be very quiet for old crop peas, as demand for fresh lighter (colour and weight) chickpeas are sought after more abroad. With India still playing their own game, we rely solely on Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan to keep our market alive. Whilst it does fluctuate prices somewhat, it is nowhere near what India traditionally would require and thus why our dollar per tonne is lower than on recent seasons.  Quality this season may be a problem further north with GrainCorp bringing in a receival standard for “CHKPX”, a grade established for frosted grain. Where quality lies for now heading south is unsure but we can be sure this year’s crop will a tough pod to split for some.

Cotton futures prices dropped slightly mid-week with a late climb on the back of the US weather. Hurricane Michael is heading south and looks to make its way through the southern states. The development of these plants are quite decent, so any damage will directly affect the market as supply is already on the tight side. Here at home, there has been rain scattered across the regions, though a hot October already is “dampening” any intention of a good summer crop plant for now. Prices today for seasons ahead now stand at 2019 $615, 2020 $585 and $530/bale for 2021 and 2022 (at time of writing).

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